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AUD/USD

  • #36,461
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:00pm Nov 27, 2011 10:00pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
Hmm... looks like a bull trap that fills with alot of BULLSHIT with the rumours so far haha ....
I agree and this is exactly why I do higher timeframe analysis, it keeps you out of the Bullshit rumour mill that goes around even more regularly now in todays times of debts and bail outs etc. I feel it would take a Herculean effort to reverse that Sharp Monthly MACD turn down and break through the broken Daily trendline, particularly when price is coming down from the intersection of the weekly and daily trendlines. Rumor could just be an excuse for hunting short stops.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,462
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:04pm Nov 27, 2011 10:04pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
It's hard bizz being active on the forum
I was monitoring the TV, twitter and posting at FF then from an iPAD. typing was so laboruous so much so, i missed 60 pips move...

Quote
I have attached some trendline charts from weekly down to 4 hourly.
I am thinking we may get a retet of the daily trendline which coincides with the weekly 55 ema. This is a long way off though and we are at heavy resistance, so I took the short at the 1hr 200ema which is also the 4 hr 55 ema as you will see.
The MACD for the Monthly timeframe (lines at the botom of the weekly chart) clearly show in my mind that we are heading south after a retrace, almost no dought about it. I am short now and will short agai if need be at the daily trendline...

I am bewildered that inspite of the DowJones news wire stating that IMF official already claiming this news non credible. CNBC would still occasioanally announce about this IMF loan to Italy as if its confirmed,..

hmm...
  • #36,463
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:06pm Nov 27, 2011 10:06pm
placed my fib on 5 min drop... 98746-98259, placed my short @ 98445 (38.2 fib level ) and SL at 9856 (61.8)... If Im wrong, not too much of a loss... Target 9767 (23.6 fib of my daily charts)
  • #36,464
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:07pm Nov 27, 2011 10:07pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
Hmm... looks like a bull trap that fills with alot of BULLSHIT with the rumours so far haha ....
I already heard that this could be a RUMOR as early as 8:00AM EST from CNBC resource person... Then I did some more research and found that this News is from "La Stampa" - a local news paper... WTF.. a tabloid publishing a huge world event????

Then I checked tweet and after a few minutes, DJones tweeted its not credible; and G7 never discussed about it, etc...

Quoting Ill-b-back
Rumor could just be an excuse for hunting short stops.
2 times in 2 days of f**kin rumor...

Fooled me once shame on you. Fooled me twice shame on me.
Hell.. Third time no one gonna listen. This is where Im afraid, perhaps a third rumor would be true and we wont listen. ala Boy who cried wolf.
  • #36,465
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:09pm Nov 27, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting ragnakore
Where is your stop for this short @ 0.9820s?
No stop, I am very comfortable with my position. I will add in again at the 4 hr 200ema if it were to get there. We will definately get a reaction at that juncture, in which case I would close out both trades on the move back down to the 1 hr 200ema from the 4 hr 200ema. This is a pattern of forex you can almost set your watch by particularly with so many bearish indicators such as the Bearish weekly divergence, Monthly macd turn down and daily double top I have shown in previous charts. I just don't see how this can possibly be a longer term up trend. Also, I watch the GU pair very closely as it plays a major role in directing forex traffic for other currencies paired with the USD. As mentioned in other posts, it looks to be in free fall with all major timeframe 200ema's above it and broke daily timeframe last week. It all points south in my book anyway.
got to go to my sisters place now. Have fun.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,466
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:14pm Nov 27, 2011 10:14pm
Quoting ragnakore
I was monitoring the TV, twitter and posting at FF then from an iPAD. typing was so laboruous so much so, i missed 60 pips move...



I am bewildered that inspite of the DowJones news wire stating that IMF official already claiming this news non credible. CNBC would still occasioanally announce about this IMF loan to Italy as if its confirmed,..

hmm...
It only strengthens my soft theory that the Forex is totally rigged as it is an inexaustible money machine. The powers at be have all the power and control information. They want us to buy in to news and gossip to distract us from the basic rules of charting. I dunno, the world is so full of BS that absolutely NOTHING would surprise me these days, NOTHING.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,467
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:19pm Nov 27, 2011 10:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
It only strengthens my soft theory that the Forex is totally rigged as it is an inexaustible money machine. The powers at be have all the power and control information. They want us to buy in to news and gossip to distract us from the basic rules of charting. I dunno, the world is so full of BS that absolutely NOTHING would surprise me these days, NOTHING.
LOL your just on the tip of the iceberg, this has been happening since man existed, ever heard of soap opera's? Every culture has their own version of them, goes to show that that's what we are good at, talking shit and taking advantage of others.

Now it is becoming more evident just because we are on the hockey stick portion of an exponential curve for money growth, so we need to get ourselves used to the level of BS aswell, its proportional.
  • #36,468
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:22pm Nov 27, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting ragnakore
I already heard that this could be a RUMOR as early as 8:00AM EST from CNBC resource person... Then I did some more research and found that this News is from "La Stampa" - a local news paper... WTF.. a tabloid publishing a huge world event????

Then I checked tweet and after a few minutes, DJones tweeted its not credible; and G7 never discussed about it, etc...


2 times in 2 days of f**kin rumor...

Fooled me once shame on you. Fooled me twice shame on me.
Hell.. Third time no one gonna listen. This is where Im afraid, perhaps a third rumor...
Hahaha... ya i agree... with the market conditions right now, we just have to be careful. Just like Ill-be-back mentioned, trading on a higher TF is a safer place right now. Just have to be patient but of course we are only humans and we always tend to be tempted. Good luck!
  • #36,469
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:23pm Nov 27, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
No stop, I am very comfortable with my position. I will add in again at the 4 hr 200ema if it were to get there. We will definately get a reaction at that juncture, in which case I would close out both trades on the move back down to the 1 hr 200ema from the 4 hr 200ema. This is a pattern of forex you can almost set your watch by particularly with so many bearish indicators such as the Bearish weekly divergence, Monthly macd turn down and daily double top I have shown in previous charts. I just don't see how this can possibly be a longer term up...

i am shorting too, except i will watch very the carefully with the market, first target at 978,second target at 971...definately close at 97, if no obvious swing back, then i will consider continue another short, otherwise i will go back to my original plan long at 97.
  • #36,470
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:25pm Nov 27, 2011 10:25pm
just out of curiosity, whats the volume are u guys trading?
  • #36,471
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:29pm Nov 27, 2011 10:29pm
Be careful. This IMF isn't the only bullish BS for the week; there is still that EFSF detail to come out later and be voted tomorrow.

There are some bonds auction later too.. Could be a bomb too.
  • #36,472
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:36pm Nov 27, 2011 10:36pm
Quoting ragnakore
Be careful. This IMF isn't the only bullish BS for the week; there is still that EFSF detail to come out later and be voted tomorrow.

There are some bonds auction later too.. Could be a bomb too.
i agree, thats why i am watching the market very closely right now, any swing bak up i am goin to close it.
  • #36,473
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:37pm Nov 27, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting genisb
just out of curiosity, whats the volume are u guys trading?
I trade about 1 standard lot per 1k in my account, my account is set as mini so i add .01 per positive trade or when I can lock in or place SL for $100 in profit
  • #36,474
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:40pm Nov 27, 2011 10:40pm
it is obvious that the market havent make its decision yet, no major big trend to be seen so far, just need to wait patiently..
  • #36,475
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:47pm Nov 27, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting sidhujag
LOL your just on the tip of the iceberg, this has been happening since man existed, ever heard of soap opera's? Every culture has their own version of them, goes to show that that's what we are good at, talking shit and taking advantage of others.

Now it is becoming more evident just because we are on the hockey stick portion of an exponential curve for money growth, so we need to get ourselves used to the level of BS aswell, its proportional.
I'm just the son of a simple dairy farmer, what do I know
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,476
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:49pm Nov 27, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting genisb
just out of curiosity, whats the volume are u guys trading?
Just 1 lot. Just took out a mortgage so no so much money floating around right now.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,477
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:52pm Nov 27, 2011 10:52pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Just 1 lot. Just took out a mortgage so no so much money floating around right now.
what was ur principal? ive been trading with 10lots, with 50k principal, i think its enough..
  • #36,478
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:56pm Nov 27, 2011 10:56pm
Interesting that the 4hr 200 ema is lurking right around the 61.8retrace at 1.0080 or so. This would coincide with a daily trendline retest. If we get there I will be shorting harder, probably 2 lots..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hmmmmmmmmm.gif Size: 22 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,479
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:58pm Nov 27, 2011 10:58pm
Quoting genisb
what was ur principal? ive been trading with 10lots, with 50k principal, i think its enough..
Wow, that's heaps in my book. I only have 20k running and I trade $10/pip for every 20K or $1/pip for every 2k.
This allows me to trade without stops most of the time or at least place stops above recent highs after a retrace up to minimise draw down and maximise profit potential.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,480
  • Nov 27, 2011 10:58pm Nov 27, 2011 10:58pm
honestly that 60pip drop did not happen for no reason, and i dont think its going to recover anytime soon, really tempting to short another one, but i gota go out for a business meeting..shame..guess stay safe for awhile..

good luck guys.
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