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AUD/USD

  • #36,401
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:42pm Nov 26, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I noticed earlier but had no time to comment as was heading out that a couple of pairs like the kiwi and usdchf have broken and closed outside of important weekly trendlines. The swissy has had strong popularity as an alternative safe haven this year, but my chart now shows that it has a confirmed turn around and I feel traders maybe looking for a bargain before the rush on the USD. Sorry no chart as on my phone but will post if I remember tonight.
I saw those too, have been dabbling in USDCHF pair from time to time when I don't see any opportunities to go in the AUDUSD pair.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,402
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:51pm Nov 26, 2011 9:51pm
i guess my greatest problem is with revenge trading.... i've reduced the tendency to do that.... but there's still a lot of work to make me mentally comfortable to let profit run......

to be honest, my record's like... +30 pips one week , -300 pips the next etc.... haiz..!!!!![/quote]

Hi happytrader,

Great at least you have determine what is the problem. Slowly work on it and you should be fine.

You should learn to also determine what is the S/R of the chart. See the trend on the higher tf and enter according to the trend. That way you will be safe to know that you are following with the trend than against it.

Price does not move on a straight line and will retrace back against the trend before it continues to the original trend.

For me, i will only based on the bearish/bullish pin bar near the support/resistance level that i have drawn and if i am bearish, if the price goes to the next resistance, i will wait to see if it push higher or reject the resistance and move back to its bearish state. I will then see where the next support is. If it is too near then I will see whether it is within my rule of 1:2 RR. If not then I will wait for the next setup.

Forex trading is about probability but I know that if i just stick to my plan and follow my rules, i will be safe cause i know that out of 30 times i took the same trading method, it will be more than half that it will be profitable. Even if i win 50% i will be happy cause i know my R:R will cover the losses cause at times the R:R can be 1:3 depending on the S/R.

Thats y trading on a higher TF, you will not tend to jump back in and revenge trade as you will wait for the next candle to close and see how it goes. My advice if you can't take a lost is to close your monitor and walk away and do something else like maybe creating a journal to do a post mortem on what happen to that lost trade and see whether did you follow your plan and if u did not then make sure the next one u do. But of course if u did follow, then take a breather and said i did my best but it is just not meant to be but its ok i can come back later to see any good setup within my plan.

All the best in your trading and hope your nickname follows you thru throughout your trading journey to be a happytrader!
  • #36,403
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:58pm Nov 26, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
i guess my greatest problem is with revenge trading.... i've reduced the tendency to do that.... but there's still a lot of work to make me mentally comfortable to let profit run......

to be honest, my record's like... +30 pips one week , -300 pips the next etc.... haiz..!!!!!
Hi happytrader,

Great at least you have determine what is the problem. Slowly work on it and you should be fine.

You should learn to also determine what is the S/R of the chart. See the trend on the higher tf and enter according to the trend. That way you will be safe to know that you are following with the trend than against it.

Price does not move on a straight line and will retrace back against the trend before it continues to the original trend.

For me, i will only based on the bearish/bullish pin bar near the support/resistance level that i have drawn and if i am bearish, if the price goes to the next resistance, i will wait to see if it push higher or reject the resistance and move back to its bearish state. I will then see where the next support is. If it is too near then I will see whether it is within my rule of 1:2 RR. If not then I will wait for the next setup.

Forex trading is about probability but I know that if i just stick to my plan and follow my rules, i will be safe cause i know that out of 30 times i took the same trading method, it will be more than half that it will be profitable. Even if i win 50% i will be happy cause i know my R:R will cover the losses cause at times the R:R can be 1:3 depending on the S/R.

Thats y trading on a higher TF, you will not tend to jump back in and revenge trade as you will wait for the next candle to close and see how it goes. My advice if you can't take a lost is to close your monitor and walk away and do something else like maybe creating a journal to do a post mortem on what happen to that lost trade and see whether did you follow your plan and if u did not then make sure the next one u do. But of course if u did follow, then take a breather and said i did my best but it is just not meant to be but its ok i can come back later to see any good setup within my plan.

All the best in your trading and hope your nickname follows you thru throughout your trading journey to be a happytrader! [/quote]

thanks pal!!!! i think my 9 months of sufferings will end next week!!!!!!!
  • #36,404
  • Nov 26, 2011 11:09pm Nov 26, 2011 11:09pm
Quoting happytrader
you're really pro man. i've been making consistent loss every month for the last 9 months.....

sigh.... how i wish i could have a fraction of your trading skills!!!!!!!!
Yeah we all hav e different goals, objectives and strategies. Mine being 100% ROE each month, this month was good until friday of last week. I fell from 359% to 274% for the month. Now I only have 3.5 days to recoup my losses from friday. Use this forum and study other fx info sites and you can do very well. Been trading for about 3 years now and I just recently made a big stride in maintaining profitablity. Good luck my friend!
Live to Trade FX - Trade FX to Live
  • #36,405
  • Nov 27, 2011 8:25am Nov 27, 2011 8:25am
Personally, my biggest problem thus far is the choice for Stops and Limits.

Oftentimes, I would choose a stupid stop and ended up hitting it.
Hell, I lost 2 big trades due to stupid stops (Nov18, Nov25).
Likewise, I would set a stupid take profit and ended up not meeting it.

I still need lots of learning and this is why I ask you folks were are the supports and resistances. somehow, that is my biggest weakness.
  • #36,406
  • Nov 27, 2011 8:46am Nov 27, 2011 8:46am
Forex is calculated risk..

Trust me, just when you think you know it all, you actually don't.

When I started forex, I traded blindly and from a capital of $200, I grew it to $600 in 2 weeks, that's a 200% return. But easy come easy go.

I'm still a newbie at this, currently I'm still at a nett loss of $850SGD even though I came close to breaking even.

Soon I learnt proper money management and swing trading.

Capturing pips is easy, you need to look at higher TFs. I plan exit and entry using S/R and fibs.

You need to know when a trade is invalidated and also when to lock in profits.
  • #36,407
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:15pm Nov 27, 2011 1:15pm
Quoting ragnakore
Personally, my biggest problem thus far is the choice for Stops and Limits.

Oftentimes, I would choose a stupid stop and ended up hitting it.
Hell, I lost 2 big trades due to stupid stops (Nov18, Nov25).
Likewise, I would set a stupid take profit and ended up not meeting it.

I still need lots of learning and this is why I ask you folks were are the supports and resistances. somehow, that is my biggest weakness.
I have the same problem, I have always found it difficult to see support and resistance except when it is a strong one. 2 things that I find help. A) zoom out on the daily and weekly and look for the clusters. B) most of the time I don't use them, I use the 55 and 200 emas of different timeframes from 15 min to the 4 hourly. I look for confluence with manual fib levels then zoom out to check supp/resist from there, but mostly just EMA's and fibs. The 61.8 retrace is like a swing traders magnet on the GBPUSD on particular. Hope this helps.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,408
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:18pm Nov 27, 2011 1:18pm
Quoting genisb
I personally have long three contract..first time i do three large one over the weekend, feel like a huge gamble...really nervous right now, take profit at 10MA..
Looks like your gamble paid off at the moment......
  • #36,409
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:39pm Nov 27, 2011 1:39pm
@0.9784...smart money celebrates something...I wander what?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #36,410
  • Nov 27, 2011 1:50pm Nov 27, 2011 1:50pm
A possible retrace to 1.01....
  • #36,411
  • Nov 27, 2011 2:39pm Nov 27, 2011 2:39pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd daily.gif Size: 21 KB


With a hammer and a shooting star on the daily, I think it's going to at least .99 and probably higher. I personally think somewhere around parity.
  • #36,412
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:17pm Nov 27, 2011 3:17pm
Quoting GBReal
Attachment

With a hammer and a shooting star on the daily, I think it's going to at least .99 and probably higher. I personally think somewhere around parity.
why do you guys think its rebounding all of a sudden? news over the weekend? thought we were headed for 95 then 93??
  • #36,413
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:32pm Nov 27, 2011 3:32pm
Quoting Artemis11
why do you guys think its rebounding all of a sudden? news over the weekend? thought we were headed for 95 then 93??
Yep, only thing, my chart has a daily trendline although it is a rough one and maybe the Aussie is a safe haven, not too sure. Not at my desk, what was the gap up?
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,414
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:33pm Nov 27, 2011 3:33pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yep, only thing, my chart has a daily trendline although it is a rough one and maybe the Aussie is a safe haven, not too sure. Not at my desk, what was the gap up?
Does it have anything to do with the fact that IMF is lending money to Italy?
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,415
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:35pm Nov 27, 2011 3:35pm
Quoting Artemis11
why do you guys think its rebounding all of a sudden? news over the weekend? thought we were headed for 95 then 93??
i have listed my reason on why i forcasted a rebound and long it before the market close during the weekend two pages ago.
  • #36,416
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:37pm Nov 27, 2011 3:37pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Does it have anything to do with the fact that IMF is lending money to Italy?
Probably, didn't know they were. We are also at decent pre GFC resistance, now support. Wont be at charts until after Asia before heading out again so can't really comment on levels and PA etc.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,417
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:45pm Nov 27, 2011 3:45pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Probably, didn't know they were. We are also at decent pre GFC resistance, now support. Wont be at charts until after Asia before heading out again so can't really comment on levels and PA etc.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=328145
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,418
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:50pm Nov 27, 2011 3:50pm
Generally wave downward... its unlikely that on natural occurance that a currency will drop from say 1.03 to .93 in one solid move without some situation causing the shire chaos or an intervention taking place (which may happen).... thats why people use fibs....

Seeing as we double tested those .96 level lows... my fib from the recent top of 1.07X....down to those .96 - has the first level fib retrace level at about 1.01.... Then you may very well likely see that .95 and .93 level drop... possibly even further.... .95 is that long term uptrend channel according to the trader I follow....

Will post my chart in a min
  • #36,419
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:55pm Nov 27, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting happytrader
you're really pro man. i've been making consistent loss every month for the last 9 months.....

sigh.... how i wish i could have a fraction of your trading skills!!!!!!!!
Sorry happy trader, I missed your post. To be honest, I just follow the pa of various sessions, ( for me, Asia is important as a counter trend session and look for 55 and 200emas to play off. Higher timeframe fib analysis and convergence finds are very important also to confirm trend continuation. Thank you for the encouragement, it just takes screen time, trial and error till you find what seems to work consistently.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,420
  • Nov 27, 2011 3:55pm Nov 27, 2011 3:55pm
Quoting Teddicus
Generally wave downward... its unlikely that on natural occurance that a currency will drop from say 1.03 to .93 in one solid move without some situation causing the shire chaos or an intervention taking place (which may happen).... thats why people use fibs....

Seeing as we double tested those .96 level lows... my fib from the recent top of 1.07X....down to those .96 - has the first level fib retrace level at about 1.01.... Then you may very well likely see that .95 and .93 level drop... possibly even further.... .95 is that long term uptrend...
I have read a couple of ur post, really enjoy reading ur post..and i also think we are on the same page, except i am alittle more aggressive trader than u r. 97 cents has a strong support since the last fall, and 1 dollar(+-5%) is the top for this rebounce, as u should be able to see on the daily chart..

P.S sorry i dont know how to post graph..
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