Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

I will answer your last part shortly.

I have something to take care of. Thanks

I tried to answer your questions inside of your post and it got cut off.

Here we go again.

Since you mentioned actively watching the behaviour of oil and gold and how that helps in reviewing the behaviour of USD/CAD...due to the fact that...well, CAD is a commodity dollar...do you factor that in play too when trading the NZD and the AUD...since they are commodity dollars too?

Kno:

When you trade USD/CAD while it is a commodity currency it also behaves as relates to the USA with regard to risk on or risk off and also with regard to the state of the US economy.

I do not trade USD/CAD very often unless I see a special situation.

I specialize in EUR/USD

I trade USD/JPY at times again when I see a new opportunity present itself.

At the present time there is announced INTERVENTION in USD/JPY if it goes below 76.00 and the same now with USD/CHF.


What role do china fits into your fundamental picture in all of this? Or do you think agricultural products like milk and wool drives NZD more?

Kno:

The only commodities that move the markets is Oil and Gold and I ignore the rest.

China has a big role since they hold over One Trillion in US Dollars and they are slowly moving into Gold and other hard assets.

They have been funding Europe quietly however they always take Gold as collateral for obvious reasons.

Do you use the correlation between the SP500 with USD/JPY to trade?

Kno:

I definitely use the SP500 and Dow to follow the money flow. On most days there is a correlation mainly through Risk on and Risk off.

As I pointed out before when the Dow sells of 250 or more you will see money leave EUR/USD and other currencies as sales of stocks then end in cash and the cash whether in EUR/USD or another currency such as GBP/USD finds it's way to US Dollars in order to buy the short term US Bonds. I follow mainly the yield on the 2 Year US Bonds and the 10 Year US Bonds. As the money flows into the US Bonds you can see the Yields go down and that tells me where money is being parked short term.

You can see the same thing happening in Europe now as the Bunds and other Europe Bonds sell off and the Yields go over 7% and danger signs like just happened in Italy on Friday.

USD/JPY is also a place money is parked when there is Risk on however there is always the danger now of INTERVENTION below 76.00 so I do not trade it now as the range now is 75.50 to 78.00

How about when there is a divergence in correlation, direct or inverse...with the usual suspects of SP500/GOLD/OIL/BONDS against currencies....in what direction do you weight your fundamental views...what parameters/conditions/criteria do you use to weight them?

Kno:

I just watch which way all the money is following and understanding other factors such as Risk on or off and now there is NEW FACTORS such as a breakdown in the Eurozone and INTERVENTIONS to keep some order.

I do much reading and research to understand what is really happening.

Things are changing everyday so you need to watch price action and how a currency reacts to news.

As an example if the Dow is down 250 or so and EUR/USD is also down if in the middle of the day Bernake makes some comment about New QE or a form of Stimulus the Dow might reverse 150 in moments. As that happens Risk comes back on and US Bonds are now sold and the reverse effect takes place. EUR/USD can rally 50 to 75 PIPS.

Nothing has really changed for the moment other than new spin.

The same happens in Europe everytime Merkel and Sark KISS and make up.

There is new leaders in Greece and Italy and things are getting worse not better.

The short term hope gave it a boost however as Bunds and other Bonds sell off and more and more traders (THE BIG ONES) realize next comes a real default and maybe the end of the Eurozone as we know it the markets vote by putting their money in safer places.

PERCEPTION moves the markets until FUNDAMENTALS give the WAKE UP CALL such as the Germany Bond Auction going bad and then the cost of money in Italy going over 7%.

We are now in a REALITY MOOD until more SPIN comes out of Europe.

The USA will be affected through their Banks which are insolvent. They have liquidity however they need to use it once their real losses are revealed.

The race is to the bottom for the FIAT currencies and China is waiting for their opportunity. The recent debacle of November 23, 2011 did not help the USA situation and soon there will be another downgrade from AA Plus to AA and it will also include Moody's and Fitch.

I hope I have answered some of your questions. I do not have your technical skills however I always use the various charts available to monitor Support and Resistance in the different time frames.

I use my own charts off of Oanda using on Top the Bollinger Bands with EMA and SAR and Fractional.

Down below I use MACD and RSI along with Awesome Indicator.

I use proper Risk Management of Money Management and for myself the most important part of trading forex is to have control of your fears, greed and ego. After that the rest is easy.

Take care and nice communicating with you.

dear all i would like to shear with you powerful indicator to draw s/r level as we do it manually and have green pipe all times

Good stuff...good stuff...good stuff.....you've covered all the bases....i like your ACTIVE use of fundamentals to swing or day trade, rather than just simply taking long time view.

the reason why i brought up wool and milk with regards to NZD has to do with their MAIN EXPORTS being wool, dairy, meat. While their main export partners are australia and china. This brings in the balance of trade model in fundamental analysis which deals with deficits--which is very important to export oriented economy like NZD unlike service oriented economy like the USA. All this, of course, when further expanded to include financial aspects of transactions fall under the umbrella of The balance of payment model in fundamental analysis(which i am sure you already know all about).

the results so far for NZD:
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-mar...-than-forecast

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10769194

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz-exports...ectid=10768259

Anyways, that was the reason why i brought up the main exports of NZD. ANYWAYS, SINCE you dont trade these currencies, i guess it doesnt matter that much to you. nice discussing with you on it though. Good stuff.

resistance level

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/10291/20...du89-167kb.jpg

Update

http://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded...1322581269.png

nice to see that this thread alive and kicking.

Saxon, good to see that you are back in the market.

75,000 to 175,000

If it comes below 50,000 the markets will plunge and if it goes over 175,000 the markets will soar and BLS will mess up real numbers.

Revisions also important and UI Rate as well

8:30 AM EST and the Party Starts !!!

Great stuff ,,...Thanks

Sorry everyone, went on a trip to Pittsburgh, back now
Hope everyone's trading has been going well. I'll be up and posting shortly, just cleaning my charts and setting some targets.

How dreadful! Glad your ransom was paid!! Hope the rope burns heal up! LOL

Welcome back.

Haha, na, I was there by my own doing, haha.
Funny thing though, I didnt know how crazy they were about their sports there. I was wearing a Boston Bruins jacket the WHOLE time and people were giving me the worst looks and I couldn't figure out why. Now I know, haha.

LOL Yeah, it's hard not to offend sports fans sometimes.

if 4h bar closed below 23.6 febo au will dive as pic

EU Targets

UCAD ST Piv and Fib conf. Watch for friction on MPIV before target. Might stack

ECAD at Piv Conf right now. Keep a close eye

UCHF,
If it doesnt reach/breach previous high, I will be bearish. Keeping an eye on PA on this one as well. If PA can move south, we have some good conf targets to play

AU still in consolidation. Good targets to the south though

NU something similar but good target to the north on this one