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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #104,741
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:09pm Nov 25, 2011 5:09pm
Trade for today: D1 break of inside bar on Silver, W1 HCR held strong. Not much momentum on it though.

1h PB on the retest would have been a classic! Wasn't around to see it form, was at an exhibition of works by Leonardo Da Vinci
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  • #104,742
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:41pm Nov 25, 2011 5:41pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Pin

You are right size wise this wasn't a great one. That's 4+ years ago and I am much much pickier about my bars. This was a nice pin with the trend, with a PPZ, with a 50% pullback. These work out left and right at good areas(small bars ala your aud/jpy). The issue I have with them is not anything other then based on my exit methods the variance is higher. bars like this in space that get going can be fantastic trades. That same bar I would take now if the nose was longer. I was probably taking upwards of DOUBLE(even triple) the amount...

Thanks Mike

For some reason, I got it into my head that the cherry hanging off a tree pattern has some order flow dynamics behind it. This is obviously not the case as you did not mention it.
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  • #104,743
  • Nov 25, 2011 6:56pm Nov 25, 2011 6:56pm
Quoting Pinbar
Thanks Mike

For some reason, I got it into my head that the cherry hanging off a tree pattern has some order flow dynamics behind it. This is obviously not the case as you did not mention it.
Hey PB

Well everything we do as traders involves order flow dynamics. The cherry picking is directly related to the traffic vs space which is a video I did later to start to get into the more medium difficulty stuff around that. Many things we do as traders are overlapping though

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #104,744
  • Nov 25, 2011 6:59pm Nov 25, 2011 6:59pm
Quoting Donkey
Hey Mike - looking good on that weekly pin, eh? I'm still in with profit locked in at 8450 .
nice brotha, I am at breakeven now but think we are in line for a lot more/ But you know how it goes, things can change quick so gotta stand at attention as always


parity is the major level for me


Best
Mike
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  • #104,745
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:00pm Nov 25, 2011 7:00pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey PB

Well everything we do as traders involves order flow dynamics. The cherry picking is directly related to the traffic vs space which is a video I did later to start to get into the more medium difficulty stuff around that. Many things we do as traders are overlapping though

Hope that helps
Mike
Thanks Mike.

So basically, it is a sign that we have room to the FTA, that is what I thought.
  • #104,746
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:15pm Nov 25, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting phenomenal
" I'll say if I knew back in the day what a few good trades a month can REALLY do in the long run I would have shaped up quicker. Most people just don't think about these things and get so hung up on "trading" as opposed to the long term business of it."

Mike, THANK YOU. This is a great advice. So many people want to "trade". I have a friend who is obsess with trading. He thinks he needs to trade everyday to become a "professional trader". The ironic thing is that his brilliant in long term investment. For example, on AAPL when he bought...
AMEN sir. I have tried to improve on this mentality every day, and will continue too as well

Good reminders thanks

Mike
  • #104,747
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:15pm Nov 25, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting Pinbar
Thanks Mike.

So basically, it is a sign that we have room to the FTA, that is what I thought.
and with a good setup, even MORE room. I often get asked how I know when to hold it or fold it. That's part of the recipe. Just another piece

Best
Mike
  • #104,748
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:19pm Nov 25, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting JoeSmith
Hi Mike,

My first post here in ForexFactory. I have been following this thread for more than 1 year. I have a question: What is the logic behind the long size of a pinbar? Or it is just your personal experience?

Thanks. I pray for your friend's recovery.
Hey Joe

Welcome and thanks for the prayers

The long size of a pinbar I look at like this(now again there is more to it but let's just keep it basic for a general question). Big size = big change. So if you are going to create such a big bar SOMETHING has to be behind it and others are also going to take notice. So when I see a big bar I am taking notice. Now again this is general as things like how it closes and where its located are paramount, BUT in general if something big is going to occur(in the form of a pinbar) you generate a lot of orderflow in one direction and then you need to generate enough orderflow to turn that direction(creating that nose).

Hope that makes sense
Mike
  • #104,749
  • Nov 25, 2011 7:21pm Nov 25, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting Rust
Thanks for the prompt reply Mike and for being so kind , as always !

I fell in love with the breakout concept with pullback and so on .... so now I try to master it and your experience and knowledge is very very helpful . Thank you again !

I aim just the same - smooth equity curve . One more question just popped up in my brain - what part of all your trades are breakouts ?

P.S. by "handful" do you mean more or less than "10-15" -> it may sound stupid but my English is not that good
Hey Rust

Handful would mean less like 3-5 or something.

As for what % are breakouts, again I hate looking at it like that as there is too much grey area. For example a lot of my trades are a combo of breakouts and my other methods. But breakouts tend to come in waves(just like the markets, they breakout and then consolidate etc). So instead again I come back to focusing on STRONG setups. If that means all I take for the year are breakouts, then so be it. If it means NO breakouts occur, then again c'est la vie. I take it as it comes

Take care
Mike
  • #104,750
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:19pm Nov 25, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting sixteencorp
....I lost this trade after the pin bar was triggered. Was is a wrong set up to trade?.....

Thanks
Hi Sixteen, whilst I am not pretending to know much about the J16 methodology yet, I would suggest that a concern would have been that the trend since the pinbar on 27 Oct has been clearly upwards, so you were trading against that - logic and J16 suggest that you wait for a bounce and re-test of the resistance that you were expecting at 7.0 before acting on it.

I don't mean to sound harsh, this sort of thing is etched in my brain from experience, having acted (too many times!) on specific "rules" without looking at the big picture too.

(And if any real J16ers would like to add to that or contradict me I would appreciate that too!!!)

Good luck, keep learning (you are in the right place for that!)
  • #104,751
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:38pm Nov 25, 2011 9:38pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Joe

Welcome and thanks for the prayers

The long size of a pinbar I look at like this(now again there is more to it but let's just keep it basic for a general question). Big size = big change. So if you are going to create such a big bar SOMETHING has to be behind it and others are also going to take notice. So when I see a big bar I am taking notice. Now again this is general as things like how it closes and where its located are paramount, BUT in general if something big is going to occur(in the form of a pinbar) you generate a lot...

Thank you for your answer, Mike. I have 2 more questions, i hope you dont mind.

1/ I think the moving of currency pairs in Forex market are basically based on the strength/ weakness of each currency rather than the reactions of price to the orders placed on particular Support/Resistance level. In specific, i see price of some pairs, especially low liquidity ones (like EUR/NZD, CAD/CHF,...), has very limited reaction on support/resistance levels.

What do you think about this? Please comment.

2/ About money management:

When I am in a trade (it means i already put 2% of my capital in risk), a better setup shows up. What should I do then? How much money should I risk for this new opportunity?

Regards,
Joe
  • #104,752
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:54pm Nov 25, 2011 9:54pm
Quoting CathS
Hi Sixteen, whilst I am not pretending to know much about the J16 methodology yet, I would suggest that a concern would have been that the trend since the pinbar on 27 Oct has been clearly upwards, so you were trading against that - logic and J16 suggest that you wait for a bounce and re-test of the resistance that you were expecting at 7.0 before acting on it.

I don't mean to sound harsh, this sort of thing is etched in my brain from experience, having acted (too many times!) on specific "rules" without looking at the big picture too....
Nope you are doing just great Cath

Simply put this bar size was way to small. When you are starting the best thing to do is look for those BIG bars that jump out. Over time when you can tag down location and stories better you can begin to venture away. At least in my belief is a good starting place. In this case price simply pauses causing a small pinbar. This could be slight profit taking, weak selling etc. But with such a clear trend as C said you are trying to swim up river without a paddle

Best
Mike
  • #104,753
  • Nov 26, 2011 12:38am Nov 26, 2011 12:38am
very bearish bar on palladium. close below the support-area and just 1 usd above weeks low. further drop expected...
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #104,754
  • Nov 26, 2011 1:10am Nov 26, 2011 1:10am
msci taiwan on weekly. looks very bearish.
might find some support near 220 points.
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #104,755
  • Nov 26, 2011 2:57am Nov 26, 2011 2:57am
Thanks Mike
I like your answer (actually all of your posts , some of which i read again and again).

Wish you a happy weekend !
  • #104,756
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:19am Nov 26, 2011 9:19am
Quoting JoeSmith
Thank you for your answer, Mike. I have 2 more questions, i hope you dont mind.

1/ I think the moving of currency pairs in Forex market are basically based on the strength/ weakness of each currency rather than the reactions of price to the orders placed on particular Support/Resistance level. In specific, i see price of some pairs, especially low liquidity ones (like EUR/NZD, CAD/CHF,...), has very limited reaction on support/resistance levels.

What do you think about this? Please comment.

2/ About money management:

When I am...
Hey Joe

There are always going to be times when price ignores areas. That's just natural in a marketplace where you have tons of people making decisions for multiple reasons. BUT at the end of the day short term flow and longer term flow does have a rhyme to the reason so there is an edge to be gained. So for me as a trader I don't need to worry about anything other then finding repeatable and exploitable patterns and areas in the market place. What happens in between that, or from trade to trade is not as important and what I do in the long run. As for your questions about MM it depends on the trader. Some people will have a max amount of trades they will have open (or rather a max exposure in % terms). Some people will only open one trade at a time. I generally take what is given, but b/c I am so picky it is very rare for me to have a lot of exposure as I don't like that. Too much exposure at once could mean I am getting to exposed to one idea/concept in too short a period of time. And because I am fully aware as a trader with an edge that things don't always work out that can be a scary proposition. For example right now I have 6 trades open at 2% risk per trade that would be 12% risk exposure. That is WAY to high for me. The reality is most of those positions have locked in profit, reduced risk, etc and my exposure is not even close to that even though I have 6 trades open. So I am always aware when opening trades what is my exposure to the market and am I willing to take on more. I always want to be thinking how much can I LOSE. Most are thinking how much can I WIN.

Hope this helps
Mike
  • #104,757
  • Nov 26, 2011 12:37pm Nov 26, 2011 12:37pm
Mike/Jarroo,

What do you guys think of the Weekly EURNZD setup? A nice Pin Bar with
1. Previous SR
2. 50% fib ret

What kind of setup is this A/A+/B?

Thanks,
Amar
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  • #104,758
  • Nov 26, 2011 12:49pm Nov 26, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting TheFutureAce
Mike/Jarroo,

What do you guys think of the Weekly EURNZD setup? A nice Pin Bar with
1. Previous SR
2. 50% fib ret

What kind of setup is this A/A+/B?

Thanks,
Amar
Hey Amar

For me this is a super small bar coming off a much more powerful move to the upside. These tend to just trickle back higher, or make a small move down before moving higher. I don't even bat an eye on a situation like this, but of course these are just my views.

here is a chart too

Best
Mike
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  • #104,759
  • Nov 26, 2011 1:14pm Nov 26, 2011 1:14pm
It's 4H, but it's still a pin. Anyone trading it?
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  • #104,760
  • Nov 26, 2011 1:22pm Nov 26, 2011 1:22pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Amar

For me this is a super small bar coming off a much more powerful move to the upside. These tend to just trickle back higher, or make a small move down before moving higher. I don't even bat an eye on a situation like this, but of course these are just my views.

here is a chart too

Best
Mike
Thanks Mike. I think i was just happy to see the pin(not an A grade pb) at 50% & SR. I agree the pin is not good as the pin on cadjpy weekly pin few weeks back.

I am going back and watching your space video. I need to nail that in my head
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