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AUD/USD

  • #36,381
  • Nov 25, 2011 6:14pm Nov 25, 2011 6:14pm
Quoting Teddicus
I feel it is... actually... unfortunately I switched to the USD/CAD for the last hour of trading looking to get 10 pips around the 1.05 level - Silly me I didn't keep an eye on my spreads.... and ended up 10 pips in the hole before i even started!

Anyway - that fell - and its been inversely proportional to the AUD/USD... so I feel taking the interest on the Aussie on the weekend and renewing a short when it pops for the 3rd top around .9750.... might be a smart move....

Gotta love that interest rate....


Back man - I agree with you on the...
I agree, the Aussie is changing roles, however, there is also conflicting data coming out about china and we are experiencing the biggest retail slow down in 30 years or so. There is a big head n shoulders bull run on the dollar index brewing and news articles coming out about Europe woes accelerated greatly towards the end of trading, so I hope the USD doesn't increase in value significantly over the weekend. USA is still the deepest market in the world and the Dollar is not dead yet. That will happen when America defaults or thereabouts.
Gotta go now to a family lunch.
All the best for a great weekend.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,382
  • Nov 25, 2011 10:59pm Nov 25, 2011 10:59pm
I agree that AUDUSD is goin to reach a new low(.9387), however, falling straight down for 8 days, it got to have atleast a proper bounce, plus AUD have been resisting at 97 cents and have changed from waterfall shape to flat..on the 23rd the candle have broke through bottom of bollinger band and the past two days you can start to see adjustment to the band?

no offense taken, just here to exchange opinions and help eachother improve(help me mostly because i am a noob still)

Anybody have different view feel free to chuck it at me, please tell me your opinions, much appreciate your input.
  • #36,383
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:05pm Nov 25, 2011 11:05pm
I personally have long three contract..first time i do three large one over the weekend, feel like a huge gamble...really nervous right now, take profit at 10MA..
  • #36,384
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:12pm Nov 25, 2011 11:12pm
also i am expecting a rebounce in the stock market as well on monday, which i think may not be directly related, but it would have some impact..

All the above is my reasons of longing it over the weekend..
  • #36,385
  • Nov 26, 2011 3:44am Nov 26, 2011 3:44am
I guess the reason why I would never leave a counter trend trade on over the weekend is that I very rarely counter trend trade. I keep my trading as simple as possible, (trading with the trend 90% of the time), as I find it very profitable and logical. Granted, not every week has 31% returns like this one, but at least 1/2 of my trading weeks provide double digit returns, unless the market is flat, in which case I usually don't trade.
I also feel that over the past 2 weeks of being on this thread, I have been quite strong in voicing my opinions. I apologise for this as it is not good practice to simply barge in and start firing off arrows, I never mean to offend anyone, but I was just confronted with strategies that were almost the exact opposite of those I have been refining over the last 4 years and could not get my head around it. I have not communicated much in forums before as I have been focussing on my own strategy to get it right. I feel comfortable with it now, hence my involvement here.
Anyway, going forward, I will simply provide calls and the logic behind them (where possible), and keep my opinions to myself (where possible ) unless asked, as I feel this is more appropriate.
good luck guys and pips to us all.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,386
  • Nov 26, 2011 4:29am Nov 26, 2011 4:29am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I guess the reason why I would never leave a counter trend trade on over the weekend is that I very rarely counter trend trade. I keep my trading as simple as possible, (trading with the trend 90% of the time), as I find it very profitable and logical. Granted, not every week has 31% returns like this one, but at least 1/2 of my trading weeks provide double digit returns, unless the market is flat, in which case I usually don't trade.
I also feel that over the past 2 weeks of being on this thread, I have been quite strong in voicing my opinions....
i guess words are just words, as long as u keep ur heart open to learn, strong opposite opinions are just there to discuss, focus more on the theory less on the emotion..

Back to my original question, do u think there's gona be a rebounce next monday? why?

Cheers
  • #36,387
  • Nov 26, 2011 6:10am Nov 26, 2011 6:10am
Quoting genisb
i guess words are just words, as long as u keep ur heart open to learn, strong opposite opinions are just there to discuss, focus more on the theory less on the emotion..

Back to my original question, do u think there's gona be a rebounce next monday? why?

Cheers
Personally, I see no reason for any significant rebound other than up to perhaps the 30 min or 1 hr 200ema. I don't see any reason for a stock rally when the debts of the very institutions who have been bailing out Europe are themselves being called into question. Bonds throughout Europe are going bad and even Germany with its RELATIVELY stable balance sheet had its worst bond auction ever. Yes Australia is selling more bonds, but I am not sure we have matured as a safe haven yet for reasons mentioned in a previous post. The market is a funny beast though so we never know, but not expecting a significant rally or trend reversal yet.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,388
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:13am Nov 26, 2011 7:13am
Quoting Ill-b-back
I guess the reason why I would never leave a counter trend trade on over the weekend is that I very rarely counter trend trade. I keep my trading as simple as possible, (trading with the trend 90% of the time), as I find it very profitable and logical. Granted, not every week has 31% returns like this one, but at least 1/2 of my trading weeks provide double digit returns, unless the market is flat, in which case I usually don't trade.
I also feel that over the past 2 weeks of being on this thread, I have been quite strong in voicing my opinions....
Interesting why folks counter trend... tsk tsk...
Oh yeah... years ago, I counter trend.
My reason then was "trying to catch the move before it happens" and "being the first person in line". After several $$$$$ losses, I wised up and simply FOLLOW THE TREND.

Ill-b-back and I are not "anti-AUD". We simply follow the obvious, follow the trend. Once this Downtrend is exhausted, obviously, we will follow the uptrend. It is that simple.

He made a good ROI this week. Well, I made good return as well. "Follow the Trend" is so simple especially in this big trend moves (1000 pips up/down) you cant be wrong, only placement of SL is where we will go wrong..
  • #36,389
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:22am Nov 26, 2011 7:22am
Hi all.
Medium term levels as I see them on Daily.
Make of them what you want but I would be reluctant to be very long at the moment. I think there may be a bounce up off 9583 if
USDCHF has not tanked by then.
They will probably throw a fakey long to build up some steam for the short stab.
The levels are getting good respect so I am working with this setup.

While it's going down I am staying short until it shows me it's going up. Longer term I think it may test 9375.

Cheers.
Brooky
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  • #36,390
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:32pm Nov 26, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
630 pips this week and 31.5% account growth, might take my wife to dinner.
you're really pro man. i've been making consistent loss every month for the last 9 months.....

sigh.... how i wish i could have a fraction of your trading skills!!!!!!!!
  • #36,391
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:43pm Nov 26, 2011 7:43pm
Quoting happytrader
you're really pro man. i've been making consistent loss every month for the last 9 months.....

sigh.... how i wish i could have a fraction of your trading skills!!!!!!!!
happytrader,

you need to have your own trading style. As mentioned before, different people have different trading styles/ techniques.

The easiest way obviously is to learn how to pick up trends. But there are other types of trading that other traders do, and still end up profitable in the long run.

I'm not saying I am a counter trader, but as mentioned earlier, I also look at potential patterns on the daily chart, and my analysis shows that there is still a possibility that the trend will move back upwards to complete an inverse H&S (I believe the dollar index is on a H&S pattern) which kind of confirms my suspicion. Because with all the things that is happening in europe, people need to understand that the only reason why USD is doing so well right now is because it is considered a safe haven currency, not because the US economy is doing that well.

So, personally I will continue to look for opportunities to buy AUDUSD (targeting 0.9500 now) for a move back towards 1.1 and beyond.

I might not have a big account growth, but I have secured a total of 3000+ pips in this month, so I guess I am still doing something right.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,392
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:54pm Nov 26, 2011 7:54pm
I apologise if it is my dollar index post that has caused confusion, but it is actually an inverse head n shoulders pattern on the dollar index. I just refer to it as a bullish or bearish head n shoulders, rather than saying inverse. Sorry.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,393
  • Nov 26, 2011 7:59pm Nov 26, 2011 7:59pm
Quoting happytrader
you're really pro man. i've been making consistent loss every month for the last 9 months.....

sigh.... how i wish i could have a fraction of your trading skills!!!!!!!!
Wow! that's a long losing streak! Hope you can change that sooner rather than later.

I believe you might be overtrading and trade on a lower time frames and that is the killer for most traders when they start of. You should devise your trading stategy and back test it on a demo account first and see how it goes.

Trading is a business hence you need to be discipline and follow your trading plan but because it is easy to just enter a trade, traders will tend to be trigger happy and submit order whenever they feel it is a good trade and then watch the screen in hope that it will go your way and bite fingers when price start to go against you.

Try out the higher time frames (4hr or more at least) and be patient to wait for the candle to close and if there is no signal do not force the signal to come to u and enter and then ask god for help If you miss the trade and price spikes up or down hugely, its natural to feel dissapointed that u cant enter early but dont just enter and thought you might catch watever profits on the move cause thats where traders will lose money most of the time.

Take your time and remember if you cant trade today, the market is always open tomorrow (unless its a friday then u wait till monday )

Importantly what I believe is defence is the best form of offence in this market. I have an account to defend and I do not want the market to take my money easily so I will choose my trade discreetly and always take the trade when there is an edge. Of course you can't win all the time but even if you only win 50% and your R:R is always 1:2 you will always win.

Hope with this, it can improve your trading somewhat. We are all here to help each other in one way or another and i am happy for some of the traders here who share their insights and charts for me to see what are their sentiments overall in the market and then decide on my own what is best cause at the end of the day it is YOU vs YOU not YOU vs THE MARKET.

Have a great weekend!
  • #36,394
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:05pm Nov 26, 2011 8:05pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I apologise if it is my dollar index post that has caused confusion, but it is actually an inverse head n shoulders pattern on the dollar index. I just refer to it as a bullish or bearish head n shoulders, rather than saying inverse. Sorry.
It's ok. My mistake for not going out and check it.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,395
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:10pm Nov 26, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting Muhd Taufik
Wow! that's a long losing streak! Hope you can change that sooner rather than later.

I believe you might be overtrading and trade on a lower time frames and that is the killer for most traders when they start of. You should devise your trading stategy and back test it on a demo account first and see how it goes.

Trading is a business hence you need to be discipline and follow your trading plan but because it is easy to just enter a trade, traders will tend to be trigger happy and submit order whenever they feel it is a good trade and then watch...
Agreed. A lot of people do not have the discipline to go through with their trading plans, hence the losses keep piling up.

As said before, trading for me can be summarized in a few steps

1. Have your own trading plan (try it out on demo until you're fully comfortable with it)
2. Follow your own trading plan (be disciplined)
3. Do not over leverage (yes it is fun to see the money go up fast - if the trade is going your way, but it's also painful to see the money go away fast if the trade is going the other way)
4. Practice good risk management (you shouldn't put in more than 10% of your overall trading funds in open trades at any one time - better still if you can limit it below 5% - I prefer 5% and I used a guide that my trades should be able to stand the test of 2000 pips the opposite way - so far so good)

Hope this helps you.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,396
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:19pm Nov 26, 2011 8:19pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Agreed. A lot of people do not have the discipline to go through with their trading plans, hence the losses keep piling up.

As said before, trading for me can be summarized in a few steps

1. Have your own trading plan (try it out on demo until you're fully comfortable with it)
2. Follow your own trading plan (be disciplined)
3. Do not over leverage (yes it is fun to see the money go up fast - if the trade is going your way, but it's also painful to see the money go away fast if the trade is going the other way)
4. Practice good risk management...

So you are free today too huh? Damn... im at work now and only ends at 10pm and its on a bloody Sunday! Guess I will be visiting and commenting on this thread most of the time today hahaha ... Can't wait to get out of this rat hole once i can earn the same or twice my monthly salary by just trading
  • #36,397
  • Nov 26, 2011 8:52pm Nov 26, 2011 8:52pm
It's Sunday. We don't work on Sundays. And tomorrow is an additional day off as today is a Public Holiday.

I don't see trading as something that I'll do full time or make enough money from to stop my day job. Would require a much bigger bankroll to make enough money to even equate to what I'm earning with my day job.

Anyways, good luck to you in your quest.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #36,398
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:13pm Nov 26, 2011 9:13pm
I noticed earlier but had no time to comment as was heading out that a couple of pairs like the kiwi and usdchf have broken and closed outside of important weekly trendlines. The swissy has had strong popularity as an alternative safe haven this year, but my chart now shows that it has a confirmed turn around and I feel traders maybe looking for a bargain before the rush on the USD. Sorry no chart as on my phone but will post if I remember tonight.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,399
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:21pm Nov 26, 2011 9:21pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
happytrader,

you need to have your own trading style. As mentioned before, different people have different trading styles/ techniques.

The easiest way obviously is to learn how to pick up trends. But there are other types of trading that other traders do, and still end up profitable in the long run.

I'm not saying I am a counter trader, but as mentioned earlier, I also look at potential patterns on the daily chart, and my analysis shows that there is still a possibility that the trend will move back upwards to complete an inverse H&S (I believe...

3000+ pips... oh my god. you're damn good. i've been trying to force myself to let profit run. but there's this fear that my +20 pips running profit will reverse and hit my be or sl..., and that happened quite a few times.

i guess my greatest problem is with revenge trading.... i've reduced the tendency to do that.... but there's still a lot of work to make me mentally comfortable to let profit run......

to be honest, my record's like... +30 pips one week , -300 pips the next etc.... haiz..!!!!!
  • #36,400
  • Nov 26, 2011 9:41pm Nov 26, 2011 9:41pm
Happy,

First of all, register yourself with an online trading journal (I personally use myfxbook). It helps you analyze the your trading data. So, on a daily basis

Second, as stated earlier, you need to identify your trading system / plan and stick with it. I'm pretty sure almost everyone here has gone through pains in learning to trade. I started 2 years ago, got wiped out twice (revenge trading, over leverage, keep changing my style etc, poor risk management). Then I stopped trading for about 1 year, reading up, understanding a bit more of the market, etc, before coming back to trade.

So far, since starting in the end of Sept, I have a 15% growth on my account (I only trade 0.01 / 0.02 units per trade to a maximum of 7.5% of my account at any one time).

With regards to letting your profits run, you need to understand why did you choose a certain point as a TP. In a ranging market, I just use my standard TP as 20 pips higher than my entry point, and generally it will get hit and I have secured another 20 pips. Don't fret if the trade goes to get more profit, just be grateful that you have just EARNED 20 additional pips instead of losing it. .

On using SLs, frankly I am ones of those that do not use SLs. I believe it's an easy way to give your money to the market. However, in order to not use SLs you need to have a pile load of money, good risk / money management and not be afraid of huge drawdowns.

So taking all of the above into account, I would then look up my stats in myfxbook account to see how I did compared to previously. I have a target of at least 200 pips per week. Anything I gain above and beyond that is a bonus.

Simple math (using 5% risk management):

Week 1
Trading funds = USD 1000
5% = USD 50
Max Lots = 0.05 standard lots or 0.5 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 5 = USD 100 / week (assuming you only run 5 trades for the whole week)

Week 2
Trading funds = USD 1100
5% = USD 55
Max Lots = 0.05 standard lots or 0.5 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 5 = USD 100 / week (assuming you only run 5 trades for the whole week)

Week 3
Trading funds = USD 1200
5% = USD 60
Max Lots = 0.06 standard lots or 0.6 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 6 = USD 120 / week (assuming you only run 6 trades for the whole week)

Week 4
Trading funds = USD 1320
5% = USD 66
Max Lots = 0.06 standard lots or 0.6 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 6 = USD 120 / week (assuming you only run 6 trades for the whole week)

Week 5
Trading funds = USD 1440
5% = USD 72
Max Lots = 0.07 standard lots or 0.7 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 7 = USD 140 / week (assuming you only run 7 trades for the whole week)

Week 6
Trading funds = USD 1560
5% = USD 78
Max Lots = 0.07 standard lots or 0.7 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 7 = USD 140 / week (assuming you only run 7 trades for the whole week)

Week 7
Trading funds = USD 1700
5% = USD 85
Max Lots = 0.08 standard lots or 0.8 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 8 = USD 160 / week (assuming you only run 8 trades for the whole week)

Week 8
Trading funds = USD 1860
5% = USD 93
Max Lots = 0.09 standard lots or 0.9 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 9 = USD 180 / week (assuming you only run 9 trades for the whole week)

Week 9
Trading funds = USD 2040
5% = USD 102
Max Lots = 0.1 standard lots or 1 mini lots (USD 10 / lot)
Target = 200 pips / week
Potential Profit = 200 x USD 0.10 x 10 = USD 200 / week (assuming you only run 10 trades for the whole week)

Overall account growth with a 200 pip weekly pip target with a 5% money management plan after 9 weeks = USD 1040, or 102% growth

Just by keeping to a modest target and following your trading plan, you can see your account grow (slowly at the start, but as soon as you have more funds, it will pick up in the future)

Good luck in your trading.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
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