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AUD/USD

  • #36,361
  • Nov 25, 2011 10:57am Nov 25, 2011 10:57am
Quoting ragnakore
SWAP Play (Carry Trade) is useless. Think GBPJPY 4 years ago. It pays 2 pips a day and those who played it lost their account when market drops. I believe someone in this forum (no offense to the person) have a long AUDUSD from 1.0500 and keeping it because of SWAP? -850 pips loss in exchange for +30 pips in swap? No thanks.

Bad NFP equates to SELL AUDUSD and not BUY AUDUSD.
We'll see.....I'll quote your statement....come back around wed/thurs and see if your correct....i'll even go as far as to say hold onto after the NFP and wait until after the wknd maybe monday or so if it is really bad. If you are...I will give you credit. If your not...well maybe throw me a vouch?
  • #36,362
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:12am Nov 25, 2011 11:12am
personally, i trade charts (Supply and Demand) ... not news. I dont ignore news, but i wont let it change my trade decision. The charts dont lie, people, governments, and any other entity, can. (I know I am still a newbie at this, but I had to put my thought in.)
  • #36,363
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:24am Nov 25, 2011 11:24am
I'm cautiously still bullish because the daily has painted nine bearish candles in a row, and the last candle is a hammer....so just out of shear need for market relief, I think it's going to be bullish for a few days. Just my technical two cents....although the news can screw with everything obviously.
  • #36,364
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:51am Nov 25, 2011 11:51am
Quoting Riskit
personally, i trade charts (Supply and Demand) ... not news. I dont ignore news, but i wont let it change my trade decision. The charts dont lie, people, governments, and any other entity, can. (I know I am still a newbie at this, but I had to put my thought in.)
Brother, that's the most sensible statement I have heard on the topic of forex for quite a while. People can and do lie ALL THE TIME. Personally, (and this is only a theory mind you) much of the time, fundamentals follow technicals, not the other way round or it at least seems they do. Many times, I have seen rumours come out at just the right time to justify a short term technical move like a trendline break or bounce or at an important fib level etc, only for the price to continue on it's original merry way later when the truth is realised or the rumor abandoned. I beleive the forex is totally rigged to reward those who know how to read charts, plot their lines and read between the fundamental lines. Anyway, my rally trap on the Aussie saved the day on my break out shorts and netted me 60 pips. After copping a quick wack on the chin from what I thought was a beaten down Aussie (got me while I was sleeping the coward) looks like the fight is still on but will definately wait for confirmation.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,365
  • Nov 25, 2011 11:56am Nov 25, 2011 11:56am
Oh by the way, the Aussie may become a short term safe haven for many Euro and stock investors as we are more fiscally healthy, so I will be playing the GBP for now and leave this one alone for a while. If we get a 4 hr trendline break north however, we have some real potential towards new highs. Mr Buffet is highly invested in the Aussie and he is a very rich man so he must know a thing or 2.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,366
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:04pm Nov 25, 2011 12:04pm
I mean 50 pips, thanks to the Euro and GU.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,367
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:08pm Nov 25, 2011 12:08pm
630 pips this week and 31.5% account growth, might take my wife to dinner.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,368
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:30pm Nov 25, 2011 12:30pm
Quoting ragnakore
DAMN SNB rumor took my short out!

Rumor is SNB targetting EURCHF 1.2500 (about 150 pips from where we are now).

Playbook 16GMT:

if there is SNB intervention, BUY EURCHF (well,depends what the peg price is)

if no intervention, SELL EURCHF ALL-IN, SELL AUDUSD ALL-IN
Kaching!
  • #36,369
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:38pm Nov 25, 2011 12:38pm
Quoting ragnakore
Kaching!
time to long AUDUSD now?
  • #36,370
  • Nov 25, 2011 12:41pm Nov 25, 2011 12:41pm
from the daily chart i see atleast rebounce today and monday..correct me if im wrong. thanks guys, i am still a noob.
  • #36,371
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:20pm Nov 25, 2011 1:20pm
dangrious aud move.....luckly close all with better pips hope u guys close this friday with gud pips tooo todayss
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 pair today 2.jpg Size: 124 KB
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #36,372
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:26pm Nov 25, 2011 1:26pm
is it safe to leave AUD long for the weekend?
  • #36,373
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:42pm Nov 25, 2011 1:42pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Oh by the way, the Aussie may become a short term safe haven for many Euro and stock investors as we are more fiscally healthy, so I will be playing the GBP for now and leave this one alone for a while. If we get a 4 hr trendline break north however, we have some real potential towards new highs. Mr Buffet is highly invested in the Aussie and he is a very rich man so he must know a thing or 2.


Tell me more about Warren Buffett's investments in Aussie - I am having a hard time finding info on that....
  • #36,374
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:47pm Nov 25, 2011 3:47pm
Quoting Teddicus
Tell me more about Warren Buffett's investments in Aussie - I am having a hard time finding info on that....
Just something I read I think on an interview with the man himself. He is a long term investor so no idea when the Aussie will turn. I have a feeling that when People realise that Europes woes are small in comparison to Americas debt burden, that's when people will be buying more Aussie dollars. There are hints of this sentiment already in the news, but as always, I will wait for my chart to tell me the truth. Hope this helps somehow.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,375
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:49pm Nov 25, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting genisb
is it safe to leave AUD long for the weekend?
Honestly, and no disrespect intended, but that would be the last thing I would do. That's just me though.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,376
  • Nov 25, 2011 4:15pm Nov 25, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting Teddicus
Tell me more about Warren Buffett's investments in Aussie - I am having a hard time finding info on that....
this is what i can see ....

technically A/U is in congestion after declining from LOOONGGG impulsive 1.1000 and is now at the bottom of b of B, which would finish at the touch of upper TL on daily at 1.552

/
its not a signal to buy
just my 2 cents
  • #36,377
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:08pm Nov 25, 2011 5:08pm
For Aussie bulls out there, I have attached some charts to consider.
The weekly shows decent bearish MACD divergence with the Monthly MACD LINES crossing down. Drilling down to the daily, I see bearish normal divergence, followed by a simultaneous hidden bearish divergence and a double top.

I still feel there is a fair chance of reaching the weekly 38.2 retrace where the weekly 200ema is lurking and would make a great 1st target for pro traders.
Any thoughts?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge1.gif Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge2.gif Size: 15 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,378
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:11pm Nov 25, 2011 5:11pm
Sorry, correct fibs here I believe, not much difference though.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,379
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:12pm Nov 25, 2011 5:12pm
And the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wedge2.gif Size: 15 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #36,380
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:38pm Nov 25, 2011 5:38pm
Quoting genisb
is it safe to leave AUD long for the weekend?
I feel it is... actually... unfortunately I switched to the USD/CAD for the last hour of trading looking to get 10 pips around the 1.05 level - Silly me I didn't keep an eye on my spreads.... and ended up 10 pips in the hole before i even started!

Anyway - that fell - and its been inversely proportional to the AUD/USD... so I feel taking the interest on the Aussie on the weekend and renewing a short when it pops for the 3rd top around .9750.... might be a smart move....

Gotta love that interest rate....


Back man - I agree with you on the switch from "Risk on" interest bearing currency to "safe haven"... I mean everywhere else is F-ed...

Nice to watch the AUD/JPY in the future... should be exciting as the roles reverse with Japan and Australia - from safe haven to debt bearing... kinda like how the US was forced into the safe haven position...
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