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  • #1,661
  • Nov 24, 2011 9:35am Nov 24, 2011 9:35am
Quoting mpat89
So is this what you're talking about? Potential trendline for support right at untested support (I never traded a downward trendline as support though, generally I use them to wait for price to break above for a breakout).
....perfect. u got it mate

Quoting mpat89
Not a massive bounce but definitely an opportunity to take a break even or some profit.
Exactly. In this situation, Will (wmd) advises take at least half off the table for BE (or put some $ in your pocket). Leave rest to ride. I can tell you Will has at least two (maybe more?) recent positions open where the rest has been "left to ride" at about 1000+ pips each position - and holding. See recent video he posted. One is aussie and the other looked like a cable or yen cross (do not recall).

Quoting mpat89
Did you guys watch this or am I way off here?
You are way on....

dazz
  • #1,662
  • Nov 24, 2011 9:38am Nov 24, 2011 9:38am
any prof have a thought on dow?
i see 11220 good long entry?!!
  • #1,663
  • Nov 24, 2011 10:47am Nov 24, 2011 10:47am
Is it short usdcad according to wmd methodology?
  • #1,664
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:02pm Nov 24, 2011 1:02pm
$cad

Inserted Video
  • #1,665
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:08pm Nov 24, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting mshaqrah
any prof have a thought on dow?
i see 11220 good long entry?!!
Why would you want to buy a market that is falling? That level (11220 - blue line in my chart) was retested on 18 Oct when the stocks were in an up-trend and in this case it would have been a perfect entry as price retraced to 11219 and then bounced off and continued up.

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I didn't read the whole thread but I think I understand the concept of trading (the first) retests of broken s/r (buy previous resistance, sell previous support). Of course this approach can be highly profitable. Isn't this basically just buying dips/pullbacks in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend? What I don't understand is why would anyone look for long entries in a market that is in a heavy downtrend or vice versa. I'd personally look for entries in retracements(red dotted lines in my chart) against the major impulse move and applying the same rules (1st retest).
Also I'm not quite sure why draw a trend line below the current trend direction as shown in some of the above posts (1659..) and look for long entries/support when price is falling? Of course, it can be done and work sometimes but I find this approach much riskier than simply look for short trades in pullbacks into now resistance (previous support) when trending down.
  • #1,666
  • Edited 2:22pm Nov 24, 2011 1:56pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting wmd
$cad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ewM5KjbKs4
sorry the video is not clear and the prices as well
but seems an old vision at 90s price area
can you please update us with one new chart

OK THANKS I GUESS i understand : you hold your bullish vision since 90s price area
was a great shot ..congradulation
  • #1,667
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:59pm Nov 24, 2011 1:59pm
Quoting 96flavors
Why would you want to buy a market that is falling? That level (11220 - blue line in my chart) was retested on 18 Oct when the stocks were in an up-trend and in this case it would have been a perfect entry as price retraced to 11219 and then bounced off and continued up.

Attachment

I didn't read the whole thread but I think I understand the concept of trading (the first) retests of broken s/r (buy previous resistance, sell previous support). Of course this approach can be highly profitable. Isn't this basically just buying dips/pullbacks...
thanks
  • #1,668
  • Nov 24, 2011 4:07pm Nov 24, 2011 4:07pm
Quoting 96flavors
... Isn't this basically just buying dips/pullbacks in an uptrend and selling rallies in a downtrend?
by far the best, easiest, safest path. agreed
others things can work, but requires more risk /skill

daz
  • #1,669
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:11am Nov 25, 2011 1:11am
Quoting dazzdude
Hi Mammuth. Forex can be daunting. For something that looks easy, it's not. I will try and help. Give me some time to collect my thoughts and gather some notes about this thread. We must also be mindful its wmd's thread, so we need to stick with his concepts here. Other topics should be discussed elsewhere in the ff community.

dazz
Hi Mammuth. Apologies for the delay. Best if you can take the time to review the whole thread. If you do not have time, see the pdf in this post by rednose and watch the videos Will has posted (also on u-tube). Any qus, ask. Try marking up some potential entries on a chart and post.

dazz
  • #1,670
  • Nov 25, 2011 1:44am Nov 25, 2011 1:44am
Quoting dazzdude
Hi Mammuth. Apologies for the delay. Best if you can take the time to review the whole thread. If you do not have time, see the pdf in this post by rednose and watch the videos Will has posted (also on u-tube). Any qus, ask. Try marking up some potential entries on a chart and post.

dazz
Hi dazzdue!

Actually, i find a lot of hook But, i cann't find the right one...

We search for the A+ setups, but what is different on an A+ or A or B setups?
Bigger BOP?
Minimum 40pip / sec move? or the BOP candle should be double or triple size of the normal ATR?

Or confulence...
How many timeframe should "go" in the same direction?
How many trendline should be crossing there?

I believe, that i understand the "HOOK" theory...
My problem is the quality, and not the quantity
I will post a few setups... (in the evening)

so, dazzdue...
Can you tell me, what are your minimum requirements for an A+ setup?

Than You!
Mammuth
  • #1,671
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:20am Nov 25, 2011 3:20am
Quoting mammuth
.... minimum requirements for an A+ setup?
Than You!
Mammuth
I am not sure I can answer this with a black and white answer. This is where trading crosses from science to art.

Here are some general pointers.

1. The lower the time frame, the greater your risk of a false signal and the lower your potential reward. The higher the time frame, the lower your risk of a false signal and the higher your potential reward. Focus on the larger time frames.

2. It's good you want to be picky. If you are not sure, just leave it alone. Watch your charts and observe. At first, everything is fuzzy. Overtime, the setups get clearer. In time, you will see setups that jump out at you as obvious. Take your time.

3. Where possible, trade with the larger trend. If you not, treat it as such. The trend really is your friend.

4. It's good you are looking for confluence at the point of entry. However, there is no "it must be this, it must be that". What is should be using is a technique you understand. For example, I understand trend lines. I understand how price behaves around trend lines. So that is what I am looking for as confluence. Another trader my understand fibonacci, patterns, an indicator, or what-ever. Use what you know.

5. Keep it simple. I trade with a line and a level now. Less can be more.

Here are some specific pointers.

1. The more obvious and stronger the the support/resistance level price breaks through, the better.

2. The stronger and faster the breakout, the better.

3. The clearer the hook formation, the better.

3. The sooner price moves away from the hook, the better.

There is at least two links to sam seiden's webinars in this thread that explain support and demand zones, and order flow. Basically, this pattern is based on this. Consider reviewing this material if you have not already done so.

Sorry, it's hard to be more sepecific. We are not trading a mechanical system in this thread.

I hope that helps. I wish you well.

ps. Find the very best setup you can (real time, not hindsight) and post it with the reasons you think it is a good setup. Everyone will learn.

dazz
  • #1,672
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:28am Nov 25, 2011 3:28am
i think it break the support heading south or is it false break
any thought? any updated chart?
  • #1,673
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:28am Nov 25, 2011 3:28am
cad, eur
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  • #1,674
  • Nov 25, 2011 3:46am Nov 25, 2011 3:46am
Quoting dazzdude
cad, eur
in eur usd
can we consider the 1.343 as untested rs
and expect some retracement?
  • #1,675
  • Nov 25, 2011 5:44am Nov 25, 2011 5:44am
Quoting dazzdude
cad, eur
Nice charts, did you take that USDCAD short? How did you manage it?
  • #1,676
  • Nov 25, 2011 6:57am Nov 25, 2011 6:57am
There was a breakout of the previous high. Not much of a breakout though, like 20 pips (I would never take it live or on a demo that I'm taking seriously because of this... 20 pip breakout means the S/R is very close... I'd be looking for bigger targets). I only took it because there was also that trendline there and I'm bored .
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  • #1,677
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:35am Nov 25, 2011 8:35am
Quoting mshaqrah
in eur usd
can we consider the 1.343 as untested rs
yes

Quoting mshaqrah
and expect some retracement?
kinda, but I do not look at it exactly that way. I look at it more that IF price comes back to that level, yes, I am interested in looking for a short, BUT it also depends on what happens between now and then.

For example, if price retraces back to that level soonish, and my bias is still short (as it is now), I am interested in a short position.

However, if by the time price comes back to that level my analysis has changed, I may not be.

For example, say price continues down from here for a while, then forms a classic reversal pattern. Because of this, maybe my bias has changed from short to long. Say I am in a trade and holding it long at that point. When price gets back to that level, I may no longer be seeing as a level to short, but either a level to take profit, or an obsticle for my long trade to hopefully break through.

Also, depending on what happens between now and then, I may not even consider that level to be relavent any more by the time price gets back to it. I not am not big on historical s/r levels, I more focus on what's happening now.

right NOW, we are in a down trend and that is the last untested resistance level. that's what's important

dazz
  • #1,678
  • Nov 25, 2011 8:56am Nov 25, 2011 8:56am
Quoting mpat89
Nice charts, did you take that USDCAD short? How did you manage it?
no, but nothing wrong with doing that. i am expecting cad to go to 1.6 but whether is does or not, who knows. If we get 1.6 ish and price does a 3rd tap of the TL (channel), then I'd be very interested.

Let me show you. I need two charts.

First one is hourly, shows (potential) setup. second one is daily and shows big picture supporting my theory. Also, say I get a tight entry on 5min, but on hourly or 4 hourly setup, then I hold and can use a daily chart to indicate an extended move south, then its good risk/reward isn't it.

I have observed Will thinks like this, I am trying to learn to think in a similar way.

dazz
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  • #1,679
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:03am Nov 25, 2011 9:03am
Quoting mpat89
There was a breakout of the previous high. Not much of a breakout though, like 20 pips (I would never take it live or on a demo that I'm taking seriously because of this... 20 pip breakout means the S/R is very close... I'd be looking for bigger targets). I only took it because there was also that trendline there and I'm bored .
professional athletes are expected to behave at training in the same manner as in the game.

its about developing a winning mindset, discpline and patience.

taking entry to releive bordom will delay your progress accordindly

(been there, done that)
  • #1,680
  • Nov 25, 2011 9:25am Nov 25, 2011 9:25am
damm.... I totally missed the other channel on cad

as I have mentioned previously, when price reacts, it's for a reason, see if you can find it (it sharpens your eyes)
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