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Fratelli Intraday trading system

  • #1,421
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:40pm Nov 23, 2011 9:40pm
Quoting pedross
Hi Peter, first let me thank you and others for the continued efforts in improving the Fratelli system. I've been doing a fair bit of back testing with the latest changes re: MA cross and the ST candle mod and have noticed two significant occurrences that I think are well worth investigating (with respect to feedback to the system).

1) EMA crossover: the faster EMA has been changed from 2 to 4 and although many arrows line up, some don't. As a consequence we do get late entries, which is common sense, but more importantly there are many...
Thanks for your efforts.

I will look into this as I also have ohter things to test.

But could you do me a favor and tell me what pair it is on those pictures.

That will help me save some time.

Peter
  • #1,422
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:43pm Nov 23, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting fratelli
Thanks for your efforts.

I will look into this as I also have ohter things to test.

But could you do me a favor and tell me what pair it is on those pictures.

That will help me save some time.

Peter
Peter, they are all EURUSD
  • #1,423
  • Nov 23, 2011 9:50pm Nov 23, 2011 9:50pm
Quoting deankenny21
Peter, they are all EURUSD
Bummer.

thanks.

It must be my old eyes playing trick with me.

But thanks

Peter
  • #1,424
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:02am Nov 24, 2011 12:02am
Quoting Blackeagle
Of course they are not 100% correlated but check out the following link:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-correlation

EURUSD-EURJPY correlation - last 3 months - 0.95, last 6 months - 0.89

EURUSD-AUDUSD correlation - last 3 months - 0.86, last 6 months - 0.84

EURUSD-GBPUSD correlation - last 3 months - 0.90, last 6 months - 0.88

Almost 9 out of 10 trades, you are doubling or tripling your risk when you open all positions at the same time, in the same direction. Trading is all about managing risk. When you open a position,...
Valid point , trading closely correlated pairs in the long run to "spread the risk" makes little sense.
" Never let the past hold the future to ransom "
  • #1,425
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:22am Nov 24, 2011 12:22am
Quoting Blackeagle
Of course they are not 100% correlated but check out the following link:

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/currency-correlation

EURUSD-EURJPY correlation - last 3 months - 0.95, last 6 months - 0.89

EURUSD-AUDUSD correlation - last 3 months - 0.86, last 6 months - 0.84

EURUSD-GBPUSD correlation - last 3 months - 0.90, last 6 months - 0.88

Almost 9 out of 10 trades, you are doubling or tripling your risk when you open all positions at the same time, in the same direction. Trading is all about managing risk. When you open...


That may work for some, but another way to manage risk is to know your system. If a trader can gauge a systems performance and drawdown the trader can design a better trading plan and take on more risk. I just mentioned 100% correlation to make a point.

One or two weeks ago, while my EurUsd trades from another method were stuck in a range, my AudUsd trades were making my day with very sizeable moves giving a good amount of pips most every day. Using a correlation table would not have been effective.

I already know how much I am going to lose in a trade, everyone should, so that is taken care of when the trade is placed. My attention is to whether the system is accumulating pips regularly. 1% risk, 2% risk, 5% risk, 20% risk? There is no general rule like I keep reading about. Just opinions. 1% risk for a bad method just means a slower death. What should determine risk is the trader's ability to manage his/her cash balance, the systems performance and drawdown, and his/her risk profile. In my case, I am not going to leave those Aussie pips on the table if I suspect the system is profitable.
  • #1,426
  • Nov 24, 2011 12:52am Nov 24, 2011 12:52am
Quoting rivtrader
...

One or two weeks ago, while my EurUsd trades from another method were stuck in a range, my AudUsd trades were making my day with very sizeable moves giving a good amount of pips most every day. Using a correlation table would not have been effective.

...
You were lucky as it was the 14% part of the uncorrelation which is called exception. Since you already spent your one chance out of ten, statistically, you'll be stuck in a range in your next 9 trades when either of the pairs you mentioned is in a range.

If you have a winning ratio like more than 70-80% with min. 1:1 RR in a trading system, I may agree with you by trading correlated pairs at the same time. But can anyone guarantee this with Fratelli? Maybe it will, may be won't, time will show and that is the reason everyone is forward testing. My experience is that it is difficult to be on the right side of the market at least 60% of the time with a favourable RR, if you have such a system, believe me you have the holy grail. Therefore, IMHO, it may be wise at this early stages of forward testing not to trade all pairs at the same time in the same direction, but this is just me. You can trade whatever you want, it is your money, your risk.

Thanks for your opinion,
Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #1,427
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:16am Nov 24, 2011 1:16am
someone?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24:11 - 8.12 - EJ - S - .png Size: 34 KB
  • #1,428
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:17am Nov 24, 2011 1:17am
Yes and EU
  • #1,429
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:19am Nov 24, 2011 1:19am
Quoting Danyjoe
someone?
Yes, EU, EJ and GU already long and AU will be long when this bar closed.
  • #1,430
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:22am Nov 24, 2011 1:22am
I didnt se MACD positive in candle crossed MA..
  • #1,431
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:25am Nov 24, 2011 1:25am
Im on EU & EJ PO on AU.
  • #1,432
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:26am Nov 24, 2011 1:26am
Watch out for the Frankfurt Fakeout. They're the masters of it.

I know, I know...a signal is a signal. Just saying.
  • #1,433
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:26am Nov 24, 2011 1:26am
EU and EJ opened by the Fratelli EA, now AU too.

Updated version of it on the http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=327408.

Those interested, check it out.
I don't say
  • #1,434
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:27am Nov 24, 2011 1:27am
Yeah your right im none too keen on them but testing to the rules.
  • #1,435
  • Nov 24, 2011 1:38am Nov 24, 2011 1:38am
This strategy is non profitable as a system.

The only way to make money with this would be to readjust the parameters to the ever changing market conditions, this is the reason the EA fails on the backtest. I've been here before with other strategies, methods, systems and EA's.

Maybe one other thing you could try is a 3rd generation moving average instead, scientific trading give out theirs for free. The algorithm used to calculate a 3rd gen MA affords it to adjust to changing market conditions. So far nobody has made a system from 3rd gen because it is so new, but if MA's are your thing, yes it does rock.
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  • #1,436
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:04am Nov 24, 2011 2:04am
Quoting leerees
This strategy is non profitable as a system.

The only way to make money with this would be to readjust the parameters to the ever changing market conditions, this is the reason the EA fails on the backtest. I've been here before with other strategies, methods, systems and EA's.

Maybe one other thing you could try is a 3rd generation moving average instead, scientific trading give out theirs for free. The algorithm used to calculate a 3rd gen MA affords it to adjust to changing market conditions. So far nobody has made a system from 3rd gen because...
Partially agree, you thinking at this one?

All Averages Ma_Method possibilities:
// List of MAs:
// MA_Method= 0: SMA - Simple Moving Average
// MA_Method= 1: EMA - Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method= 2: Wilder - Wilder Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method= 3: LWMA - Linear Weighted Moving Average
// MA_Method= 4: SineWMA - Sine Weighted Moving Average
// MA_Method= 5: TriMA - Triangular Moving Average
// MA_Method= 6: LSMA - Least Square Moving Average (or EPMA, Linear Regression Line)
// MA_Method= 7: SMMA - Smoothed Moving Average
// MA_Method= 8: HMA - Hull Moving Average by Alan Hull
// MA_Method= 9: ZeroLagEMA - Zero-Lag Exponential Moving Average
// MA_Method=10: DEMA - Double Exponential Moving Average by Patrick Mulloy
// MA_Method=11: T3 - T3 by T.Tillson
// MA_Method=12: ITrend - Instantaneous Trendline by J.Ehlers
// MA_Method=13: Median - Moving Median
// MA_Method=14: GeoMean - Geometric Mean
// MA_Method=15: REMA - Regularized EMA by Chris Satchwell
// MA_Method=16: ILRS - Integral of Linear Regression Slope
// MA_Method=17: IE/2 - Combination of LSMA and ILRS
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AllAverages_v2.1 cc.mq4   15 KB | 310 downloads
I don't say
  • #1,437
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:12am Nov 24, 2011 2:12am
Quoting Blackeagle
You were lucky as it was the 14% part of the uncorrelation which is called exception. Since you already spent your one chance out of ten, statistically, you'll be stuck in a range in your next 9 trades when either of the pairs you mentioned is in a range.

If you have a winning ratio like more than 70-80% with min. 1:1 RR in a trading system, I may agree with you by trading correlated pairs at the same time. But can anyone guarantee this with Fratelli? Maybe it will or may be not, time will show and that is the reason everyone is forward testing....
I have been lucky for many years. :-)

But I agree with you on the difficulty and on the caution. For me, I like to trade systems the way they are presented. Just my personal preference. If it works for someone, it should work for another if the rules are followed.

So I actually trade the system to confirm if what I believe is true.

Regards
  • #1,438
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:17am Nov 24, 2011 2:17am
Peter and dean tested of make more trades to pairs on this system.
Quoting rivtrader
I have been lucky for many years. :-)

But I agree with you on the difficulty and on the caution. For me, I like to trade systems the way they are presented. Just my personal preference. If it works for someone, it should work for another if the rules are followed.

So I actually trade the system to confirm if what I believe is true.

Regards
  • #1,439
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:20am Nov 24, 2011 2:20am
EDIT
  • #1,440
  • Nov 24, 2011 2:30am Nov 24, 2011 2:30am
All but EJ stopped.

EU: -25
AU: -20
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