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  • #35,641
  • Nov 23, 2011 10:50am Nov 23, 2011 10:50am
*busy looking for last weeks call tO 3329*

Anyways finally able to close portions of my eu shorts from the retest of 42xx and down...

Christmas is Un-canceled!!!! I was starting to worry

When I saw the abysmal German bund auction I knew it was all over though

Bunds bunds bunds... Cinnabunds
  • #35,642
  • Nov 23, 2011 10:51am Nov 23, 2011 10:51am
Quoting sisse
Nicely done bro.

Game, set, match here too.. Superb day with a a very happy Thanksgiving present. Clearing ES at weekly S and final euro at 1.3330. flat across the board till Friday and probably Monday....

I need a beer...

sisse
thanks and well done yourself...

crazy couple of days. thoughts on SP for the month of December?

I have a 'mofu' area from 1162 to 1105. (I am sure its different for the future prices).
  • #35,643
  • Nov 23, 2011 10:51am Nov 23, 2011 10:51am
working on it.. i have had some success at times with these on capitulation moves. it don't always work. since the drop levels respected
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,644
  • Nov 23, 2011 10:55am Nov 23, 2011 10:55am
Quoting Venice
Look at that sucker. I really need a broker that offers the indexes of the currencies.
that one is a demo with windsor brokers. gets the job done..
  • #35,645
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:06am Nov 23, 2011 11:06am
Quoting darimik
thanks and well done yourself...

crazy couple of days. thoughts on SP for the month of December?

I have a 'mofu' area from 1162 to 1105. (I am sure its different for the future prices).
1153.xx /57.xx is a strong level. Is last break out point and it was a very solid breakout and is virgin (hasn't been tested since the break early October). Is a very strong buy area TA-wise with an excellent r:r for a longer swing.

The problem is in risk and the EZ not in the US side which definitively made a turn after the summer. The problems is not only risk associate with EZ debt but also Europe is in a sharp downturn this quarter that will have a v important impact in the US (world) economy (as seen in the prelim US GDP) and could even make Obama lose any chances he may have for the next election.

In simple words FA, with EZ risk first and Europe downturn second , will be in the driver seat. Germany starting the engine and taking the lead will be enough for the ES (stock markets in general) to make a test of yearly highs as early as next month. Half measures will put us testing 1100.xx and Failure to deliver with EZ collapse will open Pandora's box to sub 1000 levels for next quarter.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #35,646
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:11am Nov 23, 2011 11:11am
Quoting sisse
1153.xx /57.xx is a strong level. Is last break out point and it was a very solid breakout and is virgin (hasn't been tested since the break early October). Is a very strong buy area TA-wise with an excellent r:r for a longer swing.

The problem is in risk and the EZ not in the US side which definitively made a turn after the summer. The problems is not only risk associate with EZ debt but also Europe is in a sharp downturn this quarter that will have a v important impact in the US (world) economy (as seen in the prelim US GDP) and could even make...
I would like to add that the October rally looks more and more like a bear market rally. Every bear market has one and they are the beginning of the end. If it is then the lows of September will be revisited and exceeded. FA would back up this hypothesis.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #35,647
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:28am Nov 23, 2011 11:28am
getting closer again.
the 2008 bottom is a second leg. in other words it has a db already, at the same level. the target is below this level (a third leg).
so if target is met, it will be a breached db.. meaning 2008 move was only half, of the move indicated. unlikely for sure. but its whats there in textbook form.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,648
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:46am Nov 23, 2011 11:46am
Quoting PayTheLimit
3315 is the monthly mid from the Jan reversal that kicked the year off...
...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #35,649
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:52am Nov 23, 2011 11:52am
Quoting AaronWard
I would like to add that the October rally looks more and more like a bear market rally. Every bear market has one and they are the beginning of the end. If it is then the lows of September will be revisited and exceeded. FA would back up this hypothesis.
Yes I see what you mean, From a strictly TA point of view I was in the same line as you until last month close. That close marked a reversal candle in monthly (rejection of last swing low). Obviously is monthly and after a rejection of a swing (in any TF) we have the pullback/retrace to the lows (support) of the rejection bar. As soon as it hold it will explode north (failure to hold will create chop for a long time). In wave terms is the wave 3 or the AB pattern or whatever else (all mean the same).

In the case of the ES the rejected bar monthly support at 115x but it can extend until 1100 (lows) without invalidating the reversal. Only a break below will make chance my longer TF outlook.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #35,650
  • Nov 23, 2011 11:59am Nov 23, 2011 11:59am
Quoting PayTheLimit
...
gonna try to sell at 3429/52
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,651
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:19pm Nov 23, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
gonna try to sell at 3429/52
if we keep the low as is, todays mid would be 3429, just below there, is that mid of the big downer, 3415..I'd would rather it stalled in that zone and not revisit 3442...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #35,652
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:23pm Nov 23, 2011 12:23pm
swing mids, only....
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #35,653
  • Nov 23, 2011 12:49pm Nov 23, 2011 12:49pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
if we keep the low as is, todays mid would be 3429, just below there, is that mid of the big downer, 3415..I'd would rather it stalled in that zone and not revisit 3442...
yea i hear you bother, a full retest of that lost support would be a lot less bearish
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #35,654
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:05pm Nov 23, 2011 1:05pm
Quoting sisse
Yes I see what you mean, From a strictly TA point of view I was in the same line as you until last month close. That close marked a reversal candle in monthly (rejection of last swing low). Obviously is monthly and after a rejection of a swing (in any TF) we have the pullback/retrace to the lows (support) of the rejection bar. As soon as it hold it will explode north (failure to hold will create chop for a long time). In wave terms is the wave 3 or the AB pattern or whatever else (all mean the same).

In the case of the ES the rejected bar monthly...
Take a look at a few historical charts of bear markets. You will see something similar in most of them. At first it looks like it has bottomed out but then the real fall sets in. It is ironic but true that almost all of the greatest monthly rises in the Dow all occurred in bear markets. Also, bears typically last about 2 years...so it makes sense that this is just getting started.

Also, look at FA... the European financial system is melting down and Europe is entering a double dip recession. Interest rates are at 0% pretty much all around the developed world. The US "recovery" is a reduction in unemployment from 9.1% to 9% and the problems in Europe are certain to bring an end to the fragile US recovery if politicians don't do it first. The list is very long and I am sure you know it better than I do.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #35,655
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:09pm Nov 23, 2011 1:09pm
Quoting gatorinla
gonna try to sell at 3429/52
didnt make it.. still got some mt..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,656
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:12pm Nov 23, 2011 1:12pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
swing mids, only....
I'm playin for the 1.3072 now... Took some profits at the 3329 and added a bit more on the pullback at 3360...
  • #35,657
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:15pm Nov 23, 2011 1:15pm
doing some math.. Germany's gdp is aprox. 25% of ecb members total. the club med in a depression. germany sells most of its exports to ecb members.. this is why i don't believe media bs paid for by the e banks.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #35,658
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:25pm Nov 23, 2011 1:25pm
Quoting Wulfgar
I'm playin for the 1.3072 now... Took some profits at the 3329 and added a bit more on the pullback at 3360...
Im in a short at 1.33636 right now, targeting 1.3285 and stops already below breakeven at 1.33545.

will have to see how this plays out, personally im hoping for a compelte and utter destruction of this bullshit now.

Can you up a chart?
  • #35,659
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:31pm Nov 23, 2011 1:31pm
Quoting AaronWard
Take a look at a few historical charts of bear markets. You will see something similar in most of them. At first it looks like it has bottomed out but then the real fall sets in. It is ironic but true that almost all of the greatest monthly rises in the Dow all occurred in bear markets. Also, bears typically last about 2 years...so it makes sense that this is just getting started.

Also, look at FA... the European financial system is melting down and Europe is entering a double dip recession. Interest rates are at 0% pretty much all...
I can't disagree with those arguments. Most are hard cold facts and historically tested. It looks very gloomy.

There is one an only one trigger for a meltdown and is Europe. The US side is sluggish but it has technically bottomed (macroeconomic wise). Is a feeble floor, and a European collapse in good US circumstances will cause recession and obviously in the current ones will trigger double dip and worse.

However, It wont be easy for Europe to Collapse. There is first Germany and the majors (UK included) still in play with a few powerful weapons left that can change the scenario. There is also unlimited support in money/liquidity and beyond from the US (obvious), China is starting to cough (in Chinese standards + 9% growth and industrial production not booming but in another planet in comparison with the western world) and is not interests at all to see that happens and it will put money and beyond to avoid chaos.

Finally, WE WONT see recession in the US in a election year (maybe the month after but not before ) as the US will put the printing machine in full motion with or without debt ceillings or whatever.

So, sure it it is gloomy. Sure TA wise still marginally can become a dead cat bounce (bears rally), but the are few but quite powerful weapons in the arsenal that haven't been use it that can only be used before the chaos. As as you mentioned, with all monetary policies exhausted across the rich world and debt-laden fiscal budget, the only option is before the chaos start because after is just a one way road to hell.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #35,660
  • Nov 23, 2011 1:58pm Nov 23, 2011 1:58pm
Quoting sisse


Finally, WE WONT see recession in the US in a election year (maybe the month after but not before ) as the US will put the printing machine in full motion with or without debt ceillings or whatever.

So, sure it it is gloomy.

sisse
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