Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

Find uploaded a chart of the daily usdcad

Price is above the 100sma (bullish)
Stochastic is supportive and not overbought (bullish)
Upper edge of the channel (bullish)
Trend line trending upwards (bullish)

This pair has a lot going for it and we seem to be winding and coiling yet upwards. 1.0266 is in the way though. conservative traders need to wait for a break and close above this line. Conservative target is the recent high 1.06 which could be quite quickly. It might be the kind of trade where you get to that target in one or two days

There will be lots of gyrations but eventually we will break through this line imho.

We have a lot of fundamental data coming out which might be a catalyst for a breakout of a travel back to support. Either way I am looking for longs.

This speaks well into my dollar strength long term belief...

Your own d/d is required.

olu

Hi Guys

I think we have the makings of a bull flag on the Dec TNotes. Yes I know this is predominantly a forex thread but it is the implications that matter. I will link then like this

If this flag confirms and we breakout to the upside the technical target is 135! This means:

Defensive safe haven trading
Serious flight to quality (if you can call it that)
Risk off mode in the markets
US$ strength (how will they buy the $ denominated bonds?)
Tanking in the stock markets - particularly watch the dax and the cac
Tanking of commodities - even oil and gold
Tanking of commodity currencies - aud nzd cad

The implications are dire!

My mentor says patience and be prepared. At some point the artificial support from the banks will fail. Then what?

Olu

A picture says a thousand words.

See graphic

It all on the chart

olu

Comments on the chart
there will always be some struggle at the breakout area. there is a lot to defend here. As I said it is a buy. Right here if you have the purse like the ECB or after a bit of retracement like swing traders. Another way to trade this is to wait for a close above the resistance (conservative and sensible as well). Lastly dont forget that you can buy options straight or a bull spread option as well.

Your own d/d is necessary. Something might spook me to do the opposite of what I have written here...

Olu

Never seen one of these before - the yearly chart of the SP500. Each candle is a year. Look at the left of the chart. We have really had it good havent we?

Olu

Attached is a EUR/CAD 4H chart, we can see we are going through a confirmation of the 1.3820 support level breakout.
I'll be looking to short this pair, TP1 is 1.3685 and TP2 1.3400

On the radar.

Nice break and close +1.3200.

Targets are 50% area +

Decide your risk stop...but not too tight.

Strong dollar will be the theme in 2012.



golfer

Thanks for your input on the thread. A long while ago I was calling for the eurcad to go lower long term. I didnt get that. All I got was an expanded range plus a lot of consolidation. usdcad is weak at the moment. Eurusd is weak as well but is not in freefall as it should be because of ECB support. The net effect of this is erratic movement of this pair. I am interested in the supportless gulf below all the way to 3400 area though. But this pair tends to inch up when I want it to go down. Ive got my eye on this one

We are belowe the 13sma and the 34sma on the weekly so the tfrend is down longer term. You have a well thought out plan here.

Have you thought about the possibility of buying gbpcad on a close above the 1.6450 area?

Olu

The chart drives the reality of the impending us$ strength. We are looking at a lively 123 in the making that also coresponds to elliott wave 3 current wave count. This means a sustasined rally and I believe it has already started...

Thanks Golfer. Great chart

Olu

Yet another great meeting and plan. Now ECB wants to lend to the IMF so that the IMF can then lend to the PIIGS. Why the middleman? Its all smoke and mirrors.

Anyway this has brought on a healthy and necessary retracement in the us$ strength. If you are into fibs you can get a better entry long the dollar against other currencies otherwise best wait for the breakout of the recent formations before trading.

Check out Golfer's juicy trade - about 3 posts earlier. Worth waiting for. 50% retracement is 1.3800 area. Not to talk of a new sustained uptrend. By the way this may take a while as we are using the weekly charts in this analysis


olu

Good weekend 9/5r's.

Olu and I have been talking about the Nzdusd set-up and I think it should be on your radar.

Nice weekly 1-2-3 with trendline break at all time highs.

Still above ichi cloud...so patience here.

Slapped on Olu's 100sma and we are sitting on it.

So if we grind here for a few weeks and break .7450 with some gusto, this will be a nice long term trade watching for the 50% + area first.

Trade small and manage the risk.



golfer

I check this chart out every day - even though it is a weekly chart. Oscillator is also pointing downwards another bearish point. With such a confluence of bearishness we need to be at the ready to pull the trigger. I am also scanning the weekly charts so I would post any I find interesting.


Olu

Weekly chart. Have a nice weekend

Olu

Weekly chart

Olu

This time its weekly silver.

Olu

I expect some retracement early on in the week. Till more bad news start to roll out - and it sure will

So look for some early US$ weakness. It might not be tradeable though. In fact despite any temptations we need to take long US$ only trades. Long is where the trend is...

Olu

The euro was hammered in the uk session but is now recovering and at the moment holding above the support line. There is a potential for some recovery bit I think price will be limited by the downtrend line

Olu

Almost got confirmation of a sell today. We were looking at 0.7460 area to see what price does at that point. We wanted price to splice through the area with determination. Price didnt do that today. We are having bullish divergence on some timeframes and we might go up a bit. We are sitting right around the 7470 area as I speak(sorry type) Sometimes price doesnt do what we want first time. But we are patient arent we?