The Really Useless Thread | Page 1742 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #34,821
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:22pm Nov 20, 2011 11:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Kyle Bass is too cool for skool. So, Kyle is short the Japanese bonds - but would a leveraged yen cross short be even better?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-b...rmany-cant-sav

crazy bastard
  • #34,822
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:35pm Nov 20, 2011 11:35pm
whats the TRUT peeps up to?

been boring so far.

i enjoyed last weeks' wild asian swings.

dont get me wrong by that statemnt
Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #34,823
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:52pm Nov 20, 2011 11:52pm
Quoting AaronWard
On forex spot? probably not. You have timing and volatility to deal with. So the BOJ is there to bust your ass and the credit event (if it happens) is 2-3 years down the road. Also, it seems to be that you also take on the risk of a credit event (or massive devaluation risk) of the other side of the currency. Are you willing to bet Japan goes down before Europe or that the US won't do QE3 and QE4 in the next few years?
I was thinking of an A/Y cross long, for instance. Have you looked at the K. Bass vids I posted over the weekend? The 1 hr long one (youtube Kyle Bass Confessions of a Dangerous Mind) has more extensive discussion of the imminent Japanese credit event, complete with lots of graffs, etc. The atrocious Japanese demographics are bringing the Ponzi scheme close to a dangerous tipping point. Of course, if there is a catastrophic Japanese credit event then there will be worldwide depression as a result, with who knows what ramifications in the financial secto: you might score a ton on the fx trade but your dealer could go under overnight...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #34,824
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:55pm Nov 20, 2011 11:55pm
aud should be going to .9820 before 1.0118
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #34,825
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:58pm Nov 20, 2011 11:58pm
shit talked about for years is now new news.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #34,826
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:02am Nov 21, 2011 12:02am
Japan's Kokusai Liquidates Remainder Of Euro Sovereign Exposure, Just As European Primary Issuance Supply Surges

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/japans...-issuance-supp


massive ecb sec. market purchasing of eurozone sov debt has been keeping the euro from dropping these last weeks. If we start to see en masse dumping of these bonds from funds everywhere then will they buy those, too? I just wonder how much the illuminazis are willing to spend to keep the contraption aloft?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #34,827
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:04am Nov 21, 2011 12:04am
Quoting gatorinla
shit talked about for years is now new news.
not new, just closer to the breaking point....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #34,828
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:07am Nov 21, 2011 12:07am
Quoting The Fool
I was thinking of an A/Y cross long, for instance. Have you looked at the K. Bass vids I posted over the weekend? The 1 hr long one (youtube Kyle Bass Confessions of a Dangerous Mind) has more extensive discussion of the imminent Japanese credit event, complete with lots of graffs, etc. The atrocious Japanese demographics are bringing the Ponzi scheme close to a dangerous tipping point. Of course, if there is a catastrophic Japanese credit event then there will be worldwide depression as a result, with who knows what ramifications in the financial...
yeah the videos were great. Hard common sense facts to support what most people know deep down. Once again, timing is the key issue. Also, it is worth taking on board that Bass is still a guns 'n gold guy even if he is smarter than all the others.

I really am scratching my head about the dealer risk issue. What is the point of making a fortune only to lose it and your original stake when your broker goes down. Any thoughts?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #34,829
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:19am Nov 21, 2011 12:19am
Quoting AaronWard
I really am scratching my head about the dealer risk issue. What is the point of making a fortune only to lose it and your original stake when your broker goes down. Any thoughts?
re: Jap bond short, KB will say thats a deeply asymmetric hedge to the fund's other trades long bonds, equities, etc. - if you're sitting on $billions you can afford to be a little early.

re: dealer risk: definitely a good question for anyone to ask about right now. If all of a sudden there were a eurozone restructuring and accompanying bank holidays for weeks or more - what would that mean to position trades short e/u you might have put on? Not to mention of course whether or not your dealer survives peiod.

I don't know where you broke but I think in the US only Citi and IB place client funds in FDIC-insured accounts. FDIC could be underfunded too, of course. Its a mad world....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #34,830
  • Edited 12:48am Nov 21, 2011 12:36am | Edited 12:48am
Quoting The Fool
re: Jap bond short, KB will say thats a deeply asymmetric hedge to the fund's other trades long bonds, equities, etc. - if you're sitting on $billions you can afford to be a little early.

.
No doubt it is both good insurance and a good bet. Being early by a few years is not the risk as I imagine the expiry date to be something like five years. Besides, if you get a good CDS price today, you can probably sell it a couple years down the road... although again I know nothing about the secondary market for CDSs.

But I would think his odds of getting paid if Japan actually defaults are pretty low.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #34,831
  • Nov 21, 2011 12:42am Nov 21, 2011 12:42am
Quoting Chicky
This chart shows the bottom from where a bounce is expected

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_GNKcJP7dZ6...s400/jeans.jpg
but better bounce is from a concrete one..

" FAKE DOCTOR INJECTS CEMENT IN WOMAN'S REAR " [ Yahoo link]
  • #34,832
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:03am Nov 21, 2011 1:03am
Quoting Piters
but better bounce is from a concrete one..

" FAKE DOCTOR INJECTS CEMENT IN WOMAN'S REAR " [ Yahoo link]

someone injected concrete in that girls butt?
  • #34,833
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:06am Nov 21, 2011 1:06am
monthly mids of interest...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.gif Size: 25 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #34,834
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:06am Nov 21, 2011 1:06am
btw Im slappin pending shorts on EURJPY at 104.70- 105.24 if we get there.... It should be glorious...

I love buying yen.... yenny yen yen...

should be a fun week
  • #34,835
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:14am Nov 21, 2011 1:14am
Quoting Wulfgar
btw Im slappin pending shorts on EURJPY at 104.70- 105.24 if we get there.... It should be glorious...

I love buying yen.... yenny yen yen...

should be a fun week

...

Inserted Video
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #34,836
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:36am Nov 21, 2011 1:36am
this intraday chart looks like stock trading outside of a main bourse...

it will burst soon...

P. limit in its place
  • #34,837
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:40am Nov 21, 2011 1:40am
Quoting PayTheLimit
...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtsOQz2I09g

lol! Also lookin to catch another leg up on the EurAUD at 3529... pretty basic PA continuation play... but should be good for some green pippers with low risk
  • #34,838
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:54am Nov 21, 2011 1:54am
s/r 3478 41 3394
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #34,839
  • Nov 21, 2011 1:58am Nov 21, 2011 1:58am
AUD monthly mids of interest, for your smoking pleasure...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.gif Size: 22 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #34,840
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:00am Nov 21, 2011 2:00am
Quoting gatorinla
s/r 3478 41 3394
whadya using above here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.gif Size: 23 KB
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
31 traders viewing now