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  • #5,501
  • Nov 15, 2011 2:08am Nov 15, 2011 2:08am
london open;

http://i39.tinypic.com/f1a8mo.jpg

and the result:

http://i42.tinypic.com/ou1tgl.jpg

this system is how play to BINGO!
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #5,502
  • Nov 15, 2011 5:43am Nov 15, 2011 5:43am
Ok I like statistical evidence, like some of you guys have also mentioned. Tony's method has very few rules so I thought you should be able to do some historical analysis on it. I recorded the results in the attached spreadsheet.


So I scrolled back through MT4 and checked every day's London open for the last year. (It took a little longer than I thought it would!) I'm going to call that candle the 3am candle, because I'm in USA EST, and except for a few weeks when Daylight Saving Time and EU Summertime are out of sync, the London market opens at 3am my time.

I did not have 5 second data, only 1 minute. And I had to decide whether my trade would open long or short. So in some cases I had to make an educated guess on whether I thought the first 5 second candle closed up or down. I looked at the previous candle's close and compared it to the 3am candle open. If there was a difference, I assumed that this "trend" continued into the 5 second candle and therefore my position would be in that direction. If they were the same, I went with the direction of the wick on the previous candle. If there was doubt, I went with the worse-case choice, i.e., I chose for the trade to fail rather than succeed. I felt this is the conservative way to test.

I also added a second trade possibility in the results. Trade1 is strictly by Tony's rules. You will see that on several occasions the trade went only .1 or .3 pips against, yet I recorded it as a failed trade anyway.

Trade2 rules are this: This trade is in the opposite direction of Tony's trade by the rules. It uses the value in the Pips Fakeout column as SL. I just wanted to see whether a tweak could make the system more profitable. I haven't yet analyzed that, only recorded so far.

The column Max Pips is, I think, what statistics guys would call Maximum Favorable Excursion.

Then there are columns for 20, 25, 50, 75, etc. The idea here is to optimize the TP for this system, and try to predict what you can actually expect to profit. The value is entered if the profit was hit in the trade. For example, if a trade had profit of 43 pips, the cells in the 20 and 25 columns would show 20 and 25, respectively. If a trade profited 83 pips, the 20, 25, 50 and 75 columns would show 20,25, 50 and 75 pips, respectively. Tony's 140 pips target was hit only 3 times that I could find - Sorry Tony, I'm not trying to beat you up!

Then I totaled the columns at the top (in blue). These totals show totals for each profit target across the entire year. So if you followed this system for the last year with a TP target of 20 pips you would have made 920 pips. If you used a target of 50 pips, you would have made 900 pips. This is based on the number of profitabe trade that hit the given target.

That's pretty much all of it. The rest is mostly details. I made a bunch of notes at the top of the spreadsheet. Most should be self-explanatory.

Please keep in mind that this was a VERY MANUAL PROCESS! I also used Oanda data in my demo account, so I can't say how accurate the data is. But I think this is at the least a start to some empirical statistical evidence on this system.

Oh yeah, the verdict: I think 900 pips per year on one pair is outstanding! Especially considering that if you risk 1%, that's .5% per pip, so that's doubling your account 2.5 times per year. Now I need to look at NY open, and Frankfurt, like Tony does. So, Tony I think you have a real winner here! All I have to do is get up at 2:45 am every work day!

If there is anyone reading this who can do this kind of analysis on a table of OHLC data, I would LOVE to know how! I'm not a statistics guy but I wish I were now that I'm into forex. It would be a lot less work than going back through manually like I just did.

I hope someone finds this useful. Mega pips to all!
AF
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Tony112 backtesting.xls   188 KB | 696 downloads
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,503
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:05am Nov 15, 2011 7:05am
Quoting tnavi
london open;

http://i39.tinypic.com/f1a8mo.jpg

and the result:

http://i42.tinypic.com/ou1tgl.jpg

this system is how play to BINGO!

Deep inside, something tells me that you're expecting the system to work every day. I just know that you were really surprised and confused when it didn't work, when you tried it... omg
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,504
  • Nov 15, 2011 7:11am Nov 15, 2011 7:11am
Ny open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ee2.jpg Size: 50 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,505
  • Nov 15, 2011 8:09am Nov 15, 2011 8:09am
Sorry Tony, I would not offend you.

Proves the system over this week but hey, I do not think this system to work with me ... unfortunately.

regards!

indeed, the opening of NY also failed
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #5,506
  • Nov 18, 2011 2:03am Nov 18, 2011 2:03am
london open fail again
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #5,507
  • Nov 18, 2011 3:25am Nov 18, 2011 3:25am
TNAVI..

I think this system is not for everyone, Tony is doing a great job tho only because he is patient and he follow his rules (+/-) ..and that make a trader be a trader!

Most of us dont have the patience and the seriousity to trade only LO or NYO..and only to do a trade or none per day...

im scalper and in same time i do swing trades ... as scalper i make 100-200 trades per day...small and often..i would never be able to do what tony is doing, but i respect and i take my hat off in front of him

GOOD luck Tony! was following your thread for a while now..
fokyou forexfactory
  • #5,508
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:42am Nov 18, 2011 9:42am
hello!

I repeat that I am pretty patient, but I have been -30 pips in the account from the beginning of this week.

operate two times a day (London and New York) with a 3 pips SL and TP 40.

and I only say this does not look good ...

a greeting and hope that no offense
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #5,509
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:21pm Nov 18, 2011 5:21pm
Quoting tnavi
hello!

I repeat that I am pretty patient, but I have been -30 pips in the account from the beginning of this week.

operate two times a day (London and New York) with a 3 pips SL and TP 40.

and I only say this does not look good ...

a greeting and hope that no offense

i lose 10 pips per week average... my tp is at 300 pips nowadays + I refund my loses every week with other business so... it's all about management, you either do it right or do it wrong
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,510
  • Nov 20, 2011 5:29am Nov 20, 2011 5:29am
Quoting Tony112
epics.... I'm currently working on determining the most probable times for a 8 pip candle occurrence, with no news involved. I will make a heat graph of the best times for surveillance. It will be done with the help of my hundreds of charts I've gathered during the last years.
Excellent. And thanks again for sharing this with us here.

  • #5,511
  • Edited 3:36pm Nov 20, 2011 12:02pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting Tony112
i lose 10 pips per week average... my tp is at 300 pips nowadays + I refund my loses every week with other business so... it's all about management, you either do it right or do it wrong
Hi Tony,

Sorry...I am a bit confused...

If this trading strategy is so profitable, why would you need to refund your losses...just so you can maintain the same size trading account until you hit a big winner? It would seem that after your trading account reaches a certain size, refunding your account would be unnecessary. I guess I could understand the money management if you are trying to exponentially increase profits.

I plan on trading your strategy starting tomorrow morning...

Great trading!
BC
  • #5,512
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:53pm Nov 20, 2011 2:53pm
The point you raised is one of the things that hit me when i started reading this method. In the beginning, i didnt even bother with this method. I considered this method a waste of time. I found it too unselective.
Then, i took a second look....i then EXTENSIVELY adapt it to my own style of trading. taking what i like and forgetting the rest. A summary:

1st. i use 90% of adr as TP or millipede style TP. Watching for interfering higher TL/ S and R.
2nd. i dont just enter at u.s.a or euro open randomnly. i need a breakout from higher TF consolidation or bpc off higher TF trendline or confluence on higher TF. Or all three.
3rd. i use 1 minute candle for entry. i look for bpc or marobozu or hammer candle.
4th. I trade with the higher trend.
5th. i B/E trade at 1:1. SL is 10 pips to 12 pips. ultimate r/r roughly = 1:9 or millipede style TP.
6th. i avoid red/orange labeled news to limit whipsaws on 1minute entries.
7th. I trade any pairs/crosses with spread below 2pips. (aud/usd, eur/gbp,eur/usd, usd/jpy, usd/cad, zar/jpy)

anyways, that is roughly the gist of my modification to tony112 system. This is what works for me.

good hunting.




Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Tony,

Sorry...I am a bit confused...

If this trading strategy is so profitable, why would you need to refund your losses...just so you can maintain the same size trading account until you hit a big winner? I would seem that after your trading account reaches a certain size, refunding your account would be unnecessary. I guess I could understand the money management if you are trying to exponentially increase profits.

I plan on trading your strategy starting tomorrow morning...

Great trading!
BC
  • #5,513
  • Nov 20, 2011 3:49pm Nov 20, 2011 3:49pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Ok I like statistical evidence, like some of you guys have also mentioned. Tony's method has very few rules so I thought you should be able to do some historical analysis on it. I recorded the results in the attached spreadsheet.


So I scrolled back through MT4 and checked every day's London open for the last year. (It took a little longer than I thought it would!) I'm going to call that candle the 3am candle, because I'm in USA EST, and except for a few weeks when Daylight Saving Time and EU Summertime are out of sync, the London market opens...
AlienFrog,
great post! I calculated the expectancy from your spreadsheet, only for the Trade 1 type. For TP = 20, E = 1.003R, for TP = 50, E = 0.813R, so clearly aiming for 20 pips each day is more profitable. Comparing further with higher TPs (140...), it probably drops even more. I considered R being 2 pips.
How powerful is a 1.003 E, one might ask? So for example, if you started with 10K and apply a little fixed fractional position sizing with R = 1%, then you would end up with around 105K (total, including initial 10K). R = 2% would make more than 600K.
For the other 0.813 E, for R = 1% would make almost 40K.
That's just a hypothetical calculation based on your spreadsheet results, we don't know if they are accurate. But looks like lower TPs increases E, no disrespect to Tony's way, actually many thanks to him, probably he has a reason of choosing that, that we don't know it yet.
r u ready?
  • #5,514
  • Nov 20, 2011 5:36pm Nov 20, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting tnavi
hello!

I repeat that I am pretty patient, but I have been -30 pips in the account from the beginning of this week.

operate two times a day (London and New York) with a 3 pips SL and TP 40.

and I only say this does not look good ...

a greeting and hope that no offense
This system has a large average drawdown, that can last several weeks sometimes, which is typical for low winning rate - high risk/reward ratio systems. Many master traders use these kind of systems. Most other traders quickly discard them, especially when they start off right with a series of losing trades. You have to be prepared for trading this mentally by knowing the stats.
r u ready?
  • #5,515
  • Nov 21, 2011 2:21am Nov 21, 2011 2:21am
nice open
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 175.gif Size: 15 KB
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,516
  • Nov 21, 2011 3:34am Nov 21, 2011 3:34am
Hi Tony,

It seems not very many people want to make a fortune this morning...I wonder why?

Thanks for all you do!
BC2
  • #5,517
  • Nov 21, 2011 4:15pm Nov 21, 2011 4:15pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Hi Tony,

It seems not very many people want to make a fortune this morning...I wonder why?

Thanks for all you do!
BC2
well you know, it's getting cold and people don't wanna wake up... it's hard earned money, not everyone can do it
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #5,518
  • Edited 7:10pm Nov 21, 2011 5:16pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting dddd
The point you raised is one of the things that hit me when i started reading this method. In the beginning, i didnt even bother with this method. I considered this method a waste of time. I found it too unselective.
Then, i took a second look....i then EXTENSIVELY adapt it to my own style of trading. taking what i like and forgetting the rest. A summary:

1st. i use 90% of adr as TP or millipede style TP. Watching for interfering higher TL/ S and R.
2nd. i dont just enter at u.s.a or euro open randomnly. i need a breakout from higher TF consolidation...
dddd: I like it! I'm still very new to this LO thing, and only analyzing at this time, not trading it. But what seems to make it work is a higher tendency for a trend to develop at LO than other times.

I think I could get started with this using 20 pips TP target. Or take 1/2 at 20 and 1/2 at 50 pips. Then fine tune it exactly as you have.

I'm already getting up at 3:45am EST to catch some of the London moves. Now I have to get up another hour earlier? It would have been worth 60 pips this morning!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,519
  • Nov 21, 2011 5:31pm Nov 21, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting rtrs111
AlienFrog,
great post! I calculated the expectancy from your spreadsheet, only for the Trade 1 type. For TP = 20, E = 1.003R, for TP = 50, E = 0.813R, so clearly aiming for 20 pips each day is more profitable. Comparing further with higher TPs (140...), it probably drops even more. I considered R being 2 pips.
How powerful is a 1.003 E, one might ask? So for example, if you started with 10K and apply a little fixed fractional position sizing with R = 1%, then you would end up with around 105K (total, including initial 10K). R = 2% would make more...
Thanks, rtrs111, I'm glad you liked it. The TP columns are all redundant, actually. You can just change the values in bold at the top and the totals in blue recalculate.

Here's my dumb question, sorry but I'm not a statistics guy! What is R in your post? I think E (Expectation) is how many times you can expect price to hit certain TP targets, like in the columns in my spreadsheet. But I could not figure out R.

I just opened a Dukascopy account so I can get 10 second data. I'm going to try some more accurate analysis next month if I can figure out how to read the data files.

Thanks!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #5,520
  • Nov 21, 2011 8:22pm Nov 21, 2011 8:22pm
Quoting AlienFrog
Thanks, rtrs111, I'm glad you liked it. The TP columns are all redundant, actually. You can just change the values in bold at the top and the totals in blue recalculate.

Here's my dumb question, sorry but I'm not a statistics guy! What is R in your post? I think E (Expectation) is how many times you can expect price to hit certain TP targets, like in the columns in my spreadsheet. But I could not figure out R.

I just opened a Dukascopy account so I can get 10 second data. I'm going to try some more accurate analysis next month if I can figure...
R is initial risk per unit, for example you decide to not loose more than 2% per 1 mini, then equate that with your SL, according to the strategy, in our case 2 pips (or more, depending on the spread), so we have for TP = 20, many 1Rs and not so many 10Rs. As we know, the higher the risk, the higher the profit potential, but it will also increase the drawdown and the risk of ruin. Expectancy is the average profit per 1 dollar risked (average of our R-multiple distribution since we know it, otherwise avg profit and avg loss can be used instead). Beside this are also important standard deviation (pretty big for this strategy), trade opportunity (number of trades per year for example) and winning ratio. Look forward to you further analysis.
r u ready?
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