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AUD/USD

  • #35,921
  • Nov 20, 2011 1:58am Nov 20, 2011 1:58am
[quote=Ill-b-back;5149516]
Quoting rafiqhidayat
I just hope Greece doesn't exit the Euro and reclaim its own currency. Europe is being absolutely swamped with debt across all core countries and bonds are becoming very expensive. Personally, I wouldn't touch europe with my play lunch money right now. The USA is still the deepest market in the world (for now) and the bullish head n shoulders forming on the dollar index confirms investors are heading to cash. Even silver and gold are set to fall significantly (I would call it a minor crash). On my charts it looks like...
Thanks for the concern, but I think one of the basic rules of Forex is to trust your system / rules. It might not be 100% correct, but it's better than following someone else judgement / analysis.

Not saying that I'm right / You're wrong, but the last time I ignored a pattern forming on the daily chart, I got whipped pretty bad.

So, I will continue with what I'm doing, and it hasn't been that bad so far. But I will be careful, and take all necessary precautions to ensure my acct will continue profiting.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,922
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:06am Nov 20, 2011 2:06am
[quote=rafiqhidayat;5149646]
Quoting Ill-b-back

Thanks for the concern, but I think one of the basic rules of Forex is to trust your system / rules. It might not be 100% correct, but it's better than following someone else judgement / analysis.

Not saying that I'm right / You're wrong, but the last time I ignored a pattern forming on the daily chart, I got whipped pretty bad.

So, I will continue with what I'm doing, and it hasn't been that bad so far. But I will be careful, and take all necessary precautions to ensure my acct will continue profiting.
Fair enough
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,923
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:17am Nov 20, 2011 2:17am
Anyways, I'm not going to start off the week by buying. Will probably work on other pairs which are not that prone to risk movements instead.

Might only go in with longs below 0.9900. We'll see how it goes.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,924
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:41am Nov 20, 2011 2:41am
[quote=rafiqhidayat;5149355]
Quoting Rom-pom-pom
Hello,

although i'm nor bullish on the market and he high yielders i think that if something every negative comes out and spooks the markets or the sovereign euro bonds, there is a risk for a short squeeze in the markets. Everybody is pretty bearish and negative on everything. So here is a possible upward scenario if there is a squeeze. So far the TL has been providing downside support. Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.[/quote

Using your chart, the threat of an inverse H&S pattern is still valid,...
Hello,

I'll try to be as objective as I can and answer your questions.

1.Yes, I know there is a H&S pattern (I mentioned I'm not bullish or bearish at the moment, because the game became a one sided bet on a meltdown, and I've seen it before quite a bit of times - the market turns against the majority of players 95% of times).
2. The ECB already has a 20 billion euros weekly limit to buy bonds in the eurozone and they've kept the yields in Italy bellow 7% (may soon start to do the same in Spain bonds, because they crept above the yields in Italy). You can find the article on numerous sources. I just wait for them to stop so the market can have a huge spike downwards.
3.Everybody announces budget cuts and austerity measures. This is not new news. You saw what happened in Greece and Spain. You see what is happening in Italy. Whether the government changes or there are budget cuts, the new PM will still owe a very very huge amount of money and be able to refinance at yields 2-3 times higher than normal.

Nothing is bullish, just downside risk, but as the game is onesided I think it's time to shake the weak sisters in the market.
  • #35,925
  • Nov 20, 2011 2:58am Nov 20, 2011 2:58am
[quote=Ill-b-back;5149516]
Quoting rafiqhidayat
I just hope Greece doesn't exit the Euro and reclaim its own currency. Europe is being absolutely swamped with debt across all core countries and bonds are becoming very expensive. Personally, I wouldn't touch europe with my play lunch money right now. The USA is still the deepest market in the world (for now) and the bullish head n shoulders forming on the dollar index confirms investors are heading to cash. Even silver and gold are set to fall significantly (I would call it a minor crash). On my charts it looks like...
Yep,

but you've got me wrong. I'm not bullish on the markets, and I've pinpointed a lot of bad news and downside risk. And my post shows that I may be looking for shorts (see - Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.).
  • #35,926
  • Nov 20, 2011 4:07am Nov 20, 2011 4:07am
[quote=Rom-pom-pom;5149681]
Quoting Ill-b-back

Yep,

but you've got me wrong. I'm not bullish on the markets, and I've pinpointed a lot of bad news and downside risk. And my post shows that I may be looking for shorts (see - Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.).
If you look more closely, I was replying to rafiqhidayat who was replying to your post.
ie - Using your chart, the threat of an inverse H&S pattern is still... (from rafiqhidayat)
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,927
  • Nov 20, 2011 8:03am Nov 20, 2011 8:03am
Yepp, I was the one who said I was going the other way not him.

Again, to each their own. If anyone can predict the market 100% all the time, they wouldn't bother spending much time in these forums as they'd be super rich by now.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,928
  • Nov 20, 2011 9:03am Nov 20, 2011 9:03am
[quote=Ill-b-back;5149516]
Quoting rafiqhidayat
....2. I have always been curious why traders on this forum (not just the AUDUSD thread) try to catch a falling knife. Why not just wait for a confirmed closed candle break of the 4 hour trendline then assume bullish positions from there? This allows you to increase your lot size since you now know exactly where to put your stoploss and you (and your account) are protected in the event that your assumptions are wrong and the market crashes against you (AKA GFC 2008).
It will probably be the closest thing I get to bungy jumping... Weeee....
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #35,929
  • Nov 20, 2011 9:15am Nov 20, 2011 9:15am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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.......confluence with carry aj



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aud securities index CFD
  • #35,930
  • Nov 20, 2011 11:15am Nov 20, 2011 11:15am
For the coming week, here is my trade plan:

1. Market is very Bearish with all the negative sentiments afloat. Europe Debt, US Super Committee, China Slowdown.
2. However, like someone had posted, if there is no "fresh" bad news, its not enough as all the above listed news are almost all "priced in".
3. Therefore, it does not take much to spark "hope" into the hearts of risk taker. Just look at friday's rally all due to "a possible ECB Money to IMF to loan back to EU members".

4. I therefore would trade the following:
a. If the super committee failed to produce, RISK OFF
b. If the super committee made a super big home run deal, RISK ON
c. If europe steps in to buy bonds. RISK ON.
  • #35,931
  • Nov 20, 2011 12:37pm Nov 20, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Moved SL to BE+1.
3rd times the charm.
I hope I dont get stopped out like the last 2 yesterday.

EDIT: STOPPED OUT!... 3 times

If I get a drop below 1.0050, will add and scale in. ie, reverse martingale
"Martingale" strategy is one that gives traders the most losses during strong trend.. therefore, if I do the opposite during strong trend, it should give the most profit
burguerking which means "reverse" the martingale. Toos I am following your posts and very interested in developing its EA. Always operate news, but this is very interesting EA. How EA and Obet this mode of operation? Marketer?
  • #35,932
  • Nov 20, 2011 1:28pm Nov 20, 2011 1:28pm
[quote=Taigen;5149986]
Quoting Ill-b-back

It will probably be the closest thing I get to bungy jumping... Weeee....
Nice one
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,933
  • Nov 20, 2011 4:06pm Nov 20, 2011 4:06pm
AUD/USD is sick according to the guru's views on
www.fxcharts.com.au

Fundamentally backs that up !!

Wild card - Sovereigns who love this currency so much that we will have to open up a rehab centre when they get withdrawals.

Best of luck
  • #35,934
  • Nov 20, 2011 4:20pm Nov 20, 2011 4:20pm
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scalping
  • #35,935
  • Nov 20, 2011 4:46pm Nov 20, 2011 4:46pm
If and when the GU collapses below the red daily trendline after retesting all higher timeframe 55 and 200 EMAs upto and including the Monthly, we are in for quite a fall and will take all majors with it IMO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,936
  • Nov 20, 2011 6:38pm Nov 20, 2011 6:38pm
Quoting 7xtrader
burguerking which means "reverse" the martingale. Toos I am following your posts and very interested in developing its EA. Always operate news, but this is very interesting EA. How EA and Obet this mode of operation? Marketer?
I use martingale and get its strong trend weakness. I too would like to know more about this reverse martingale.
  • #35,937
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:17pm Nov 20, 2011 7:17pm
Shorted Aussie and GU 1 hr after market open
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,938
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:18pm Nov 20, 2011 7:18pm
Bus left the station?
  • #35,939
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:19pm Nov 20, 2011 7:19pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Shorted Aussie and GU 1 hr after market open
Im with you mate, short from 0.9980
Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,940
  • Nov 20, 2011 7:36pm Nov 20, 2011 7:36pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Im with you mate, short from 0.9980
Nice work
Come with me if you want to live....
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