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AUD/USD

  • #35,901
  • Nov 18, 2011 9:06am Nov 18, 2011 9:06am
Quoting redsword11
Attachment


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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out


sorry about cable stuff in this thread, just that it became a topic of discussion
  • #35,902
  • Nov 18, 2011 12:04pm Nov 18, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment
Bravo
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,903
  • Nov 18, 2011 12:10pm Nov 18, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting redsword11
Attachment



out


sorry about cable stuff in this thread, just that it became a topic of discussion
yep, sorry about that, just too good to resist. Out for 65, re-enter on Monday. Now I will shut up.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,904
  • Nov 18, 2011 4:41pm Nov 18, 2011 4:41pm
300 pips and 15% growth this week
I strongly feel we have a lot more down side to come. This pair has been squeezed for a while now. We have hit parity as some of you predicted for this week.
Next week is likely to be choppy at least for the first half. I am still selling rallies and looking at 9915 as a target. Europe is still a complete mess with no real solution in sight (see FF news item). looking at a collapse IMO but not a complete one just yet.
Longer term - The intervention program (once they work one out) will be a temporary solution and will rally the market towards new highs but then the shit will hit the fan and we will need to short. That will be next year sometime.
Anyway, shorting now (if it ain't broke, don't fix it).
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,905
  • Nov 18, 2011 5:02pm Nov 18, 2011 5:02pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
300 pips and 15% growth this week
I strongly feel we have a lot more down side to come. This pair has been squeezed for a while now. We have hit parity as some of you predicted for this week.
Next week is likely to be choppy at least for the first half. I am still selling rallies and looking at 9915 as a target. Europe is still a complete mess with no real solution in sight (see FF news item). looking at a collapse IMO but not a complete one just yet.
Longer term - The intervention program (once they work one out) will be a temporary solution...
Nice

I have secured 1100 pips (7.5% growth) for the week, and 2500 pips (15.3%) for the month (I guess it was coming after the bad September)

Let's hope next week would be as good for all of us
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,906
  • Nov 18, 2011 8:08pm Nov 18, 2011 8:08pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Nice

I have secured 1100 pips (7.5% growth) for the week, and 2500 pips (15.3%) for the month (I guess it was coming after the bad September)

Let's hope next week would be as good for all of us
Great stuff, I like happy endings
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  • #35,907
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:43pm Nov 18, 2011 10:43pm
The week trade that was:

I started the week with 2 big losses. Then rode the drop and each trade I scaled up. I was big time ROI and by Friday US session, I had this crap of a lousy Stopped Out trade that brought my ROI down to just 10%.

I hate that last trade. I went too greedy and ended with crap. Lesson learned on the last trade: "Find the proper Stop Level". Not all "round number" is a good SL level. Check the chart where congestions are located. Before going into this trade, I was using 1.0125 as SL knowing 1.0120 is a strong Resistance. But I chose 1.0100 and factually, got stopped out... IF I didnt get stopped out, my account should be +50% right now.
  • #35,908
  • Nov 19, 2011 11:28am Nov 19, 2011 11:28am
Quoting ragnakore
The week trade that was:

I started the week with 2 big losses. Then rode the drop and each trade I scaled up. I was big time ROI and by Friday US session, I had this crap of a lousy Stopped Out trade that brought my ROI down to just 10%.

I hate that last trade. I went too greedy and ended with crap. Lesson learned on the last trade: "Find the proper Stop Level". Not all "round number" is a good SL level. Check the chart where congestions are located. Before going into this trade, I was using 1.0125 as SL knowing 1.0120 is a strong Resistance....
Most hedge fund managers struggle to get 10% in a year
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #35,909
  • Nov 19, 2011 12:37pm Nov 19, 2011 12:37pm
Quoting ragnakore
The week trade that was:

I started the week with 2 big losses. Then rode the drop and each trade I scaled up. I was big time ROI and by Friday US session, I had this crap of a lousy Stopped Out trade that brought my ROI down to just 10%.

I hate that last trade. I went too greedy and ended with crap. Lesson learned on the last trade: "Find the proper Stop Level". Not all "round number" is a good SL level. Check the chart where congestions are located. Before going into this trade, I was using 1.0125 as SL knowing 1.0120 is a strong Resistance....
Look at higher TFs for resistance and support, mark them on a lower TF and watch for trendlines on a higher TF

For example, what I do is mark down s/r based on H4, enter trades based on m5/m15 and draw trendlines on H1/H4

I make special note of key S/R

No doubt there was a bullish divergence on H4 but price hesitated for awhile due to risk-off sentiment

Take note of sentiments and plan your trades. Remember, being right at the wrong time is wrong.

I managed a 28% ROI last week just by shorting all the rallies
  • #35,910
  • Nov 19, 2011 12:43pm Nov 19, 2011 12:43pm
Daily/Weekly Wrap: It has been a great week for the US dollar index (USD/INX), moving up approximately 2.7%. The... http://t.co/BaYQbZ9k
  • #35,911
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:04pm Nov 19, 2011 3:04pm
I would not be at all surprised to see us reach 92, 91 before some temporary solution comes out of Europe. The Dow is headed lower, the Dollar index is currently retesting support at 78 before climbing for a daily head and shoulders move. People are flying to cash before the US debt crisis matures.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,912
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:18pm Nov 19, 2011 3:18pm
Quoting ragnakore
The week trade that was:

I started the week with 2 big losses. Then rode the drop and each trade I scaled up. I was big time ROI and by Friday US session, I had this crap of a lousy Stopped Out trade that brought my ROI down to just 10%.

I hate that last trade. I went too greedy and ended with crap. Lesson learned on the last trade: "Find the proper Stop Level". Not all "round number" is a good SL level. Check the chart where congestions are located. Before going into this trade, I was using 1.0125 as SL knowing 1.0120 is a strong Resistance....
I understand how you feel. I chose a 45 pip SL on a losing sell trade. I was unhappy with its position but was hesitant to raise it above the next high as it would have been an 80 pip SL. I am learning that risk has more than 1 dimension. If by doubling my SL I more than halve the risk of it being hit, then I am reducing my risk, not increasing it.
After my SL was hit, I just sold it again anyway and made 65 pips so still in front
We are still bearish this week and next in my opinion.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,913
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:42pm Nov 19, 2011 3:42pm
could see a bearish weekly head and shoulders
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,914
  • Edited Nov 20, 2011 2:32am Nov 19, 2011 3:46pm | Edited Nov 20, 2011 2:32am
Hello,

although i'm not bullish on the market and the high yielders, i think that if something very negative doesn't come out to spook the markets or the sovereign euro bonds, there is a risk for a short squeeze in the markets. Everybody is pretty bearish and negative on everything. So here is a possible upward scenario if there is a squeeze. So far the TL has been providing downside support. Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #35,915
  • Nov 19, 2011 3:58pm Nov 19, 2011 3:58pm
Quoting Rom-pom-pom
Hello,

although i'm nor bullish on the market and he high yielders i think that if something every negative comes out and spooks the markets or the sovereign euro bonds, there is a risk for a short squeeze in the markets. Everybody is pretty bearish and negative on everything. So here is a possible upward scenario if there is a squeeze. So far the TL has been providing downside support. Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.
With you 100%
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,916
  • Nov 19, 2011 4:10pm Nov 19, 2011 4:10pm
Same channel for 3 weeks now, if you'd noticed I finally got a correct call..lol. I'd be watching closely for re-test of UTL as last candle is Long legged Doji w/ allot a shadow above, indication of some buyers left behind(needs confermation of next bar for reversal) and fib confluence around same cluster area @ .9925/.9900 ish ..

GL!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,917
  • Nov 19, 2011 4:49pm Nov 19, 2011 4:49pm
[quote=Rom-pom-pom;5149303]Hello,

although i'm nor bullish on the market and he high yielders i think that if something every negative comes out and spooks the markets or the sovereign euro bonds, there is a risk for a short squeeze in the markets. Everybody is pretty bearish and negative on everything. So here is a possible upward scenario if there is a squeeze. So far the TL has been providing downside support. Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.[/quote

Using your chart, the threat of an inverse H&S pattern is still valid, we are on the left / right shoulder (depending on how you see it).

How does this jive fundamentally going forward?

1. Greece gets its next tranche of funds (govt sign off)
2. ECB / Germany finally relents and starts buying bonds, which gets IMF, China, other BRICs to buy into EFSF (maybe)
3. Supercommittee announces the needed budget cuts (market is expecting otherwise)

Obviously, this is only a possibility, but taking this into account, and that the AUDUSD pair is a high yielding pair, I will continue to take small long positions until proven otherwise.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,918
  • Nov 19, 2011 10:33pm Nov 19, 2011 10:33pm
[quote=rafiqhidayat;5149355]
Quoting Rom-pom-pom
Hello,

although i'm nor bullish on the market and he high yielders i think that if something every negative comes out and spooks the markets or the sovereign euro bonds, there is a risk for a short squeeze in the markets. Everybody is pretty bearish and negative on everything. So here is a possible upward scenario if there is a squeeze. So far the TL has been providing downside support. Let's see if it can hold and go up for short opportunities.[/quote

Using your chart, the threat of an inverse H&S pattern is still...
I just hope Greece doesn't exit the Euro and reclaim its own currency. Europe is being absolutely swamped with debt across all core countries and bonds are becoming very expensive. Personally, I wouldn't touch europe with my play lunch money right now. The USA is still the deepest market in the world (for now) and the bullish head n shoulders forming on the dollar index confirms investors are heading to cash. Even silver and gold are set to fall significantly (I would call it a minor crash). On my charts it looks like Gold is headed for at least $1500 and silver $27, and when commodity "safe havens" are falling in uncertain times, it can only mean a very bullish sentiment for the USD. I agree the AUD is a high yielding pair, but we are having our own recession over here with the worst overall retail performance in over 30 years. Chinese housing prices are suffering and even their robust economy is not self sufficient enough yet to weather falling export performance. This will put pressure on the AUD and create the need for further interest rate cuts going forward.
I am saying this for 2 reasons really I guess.
1. It is what my charts are telling me.
2. I have always been curious why traders on this forum (not just the AUDUSD thread) try to catch a falling knife. Why not just wait for a confirmed closed candle break of the 4 hour trendline then assume bullish positions from there? This allows you to increase your lot size since you now know exactly where to put your stoploss and you (and your account) are protected in the event that your assumptions are wrong and the market crashes against you (AKA GFC 2008).
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,919
  • Nov 19, 2011 10:46pm Nov 19, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting taxe91
about time someone agreed with me, felt like i was the only bull left in this thread. like ive said in a post somewhere earlier in the week, i dont see it going to parity unless theres a panic inducing news release or rumour that comes floating out. this pair gravitates north otherwise.

and just like ive done the last two nights, ive lined up some longs against the trend regardless of how 'reckless' a move it seems. seems to be working.
I'm just curious, what do you mean by "seems to be working".
My shorts are giving me green.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #35,920
  • Nov 20, 2011 1:35am Nov 20, 2011 1:35am
this pair is still looking quite bearish to me.
Looking to retest the 38.2 retrace around 9150.
All of my momentum indicators seem to indicate more downside, along with the bearish divergences and double top.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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