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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #3,661
  • Nov 16, 2011 6:47am Nov 16, 2011 6:47am
Quoting Evak
Unexpected UK initiatives after frankurt opening response with lack of spike. Instead i took the corrective trade off previous US VPOC. After such a strong moves inventory would tend to adjust & rotate back down to smooth out the curve a little. The UK session limited range extension essentially signal a hold after a strong UK initiatives. Note the FIB level also corrects to 79%; or now is below DVAL.

So now the immediate reference would be a correctoin back to current control price. Any breach of UK low would signal a change otherwise.

screencap...

notice.. you short right on 1440/5* poc.
i'm in for the long side
if 520 London dpoc && 550 cleared, we can see the virgin 625 which also vpoc** 7200/30 or maybe 780 28800/240*** poc (in my dream )

*dynvalue 1 days
**dynvalue 5 days
***dynvalue 20 days
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-longY.png Size: 91 KB
...
  • #3,662
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:37am Nov 16, 2011 7:37am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting bandung
s7c, you're progressed well...
thank you, it seems still a long road till be able to get constant and consistent profit...
  • #3,663
  • Nov 16, 2011 7:45am Nov 16, 2011 7:45am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak

So now the immediate reference would be a correction back to current control price. Any breach of UK low would signal a change otherwise.

Attachment
asia low+ uk low made a poor low, right? so it would not be necessarily to revisit the area before we can go up? without a tail the "level of confidence" is poor, no? yesterday we have a poor high though...
  • #3,664
  • Nov 16, 2011 8:54am Nov 16, 2011 8:54am
Quoting bandung

notice.. you short right on 1440/5* poc.
i'm in for the long side
if 520 London dpoc && 550 cleared, we can see the virgin 625 which also vpoc** 7200/30 or maybe 780 28800/240*** poc (in my dream )

*dynvalue 1 days
**dynvalue 5 days
***dynvalue 20 days
set to BE at NY pit open,
notice daily POC move up to near asia open, meaning more tpos below poc~more buyer (mom tpo trading).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: poc-move-up.png Size: 83 KB
...
  • #3,665
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:00am Nov 16, 2011 9:00am
Quoting s7c
asia low+ uk low made a poor low, right? so it would not be necessarily to revisit the area before we can go up? without a tail the "level of confidence" is poor, no? yesterday we have a poor high though...
An unsecure low does not mean u can't take some opportuinities off the session profiles. If u look at it in an aunctioning perspective, the "flat" low of TK session was actually a form bottoming test or failure to auction lower on 4 counts, during period of M,N,O & P. Of coz it would give greater confidence if momentum creeps in on the extreames with minus developement to show, like spikes or tails. But as i mentioned earlier, the Frankfurt opening response that stops the down move eventuate into a agressive buyers when UK opens So this indicated a potential change.

So the overall response here could be an accumulation, price trading within a tight channel till it breaks. e,g. congesting into trigangles or in AMT it would be balancing till it breaks.
  • #3,666
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:09am Nov 16, 2011 9:09am
Quoting bandung
set to BE at NY pit open,
notice daily POC move up to near asia open, meaning more tpos below poc~more buyer (mom tpo trading).
hehe, i would like to see a "tpo count" counter too . speaking of which i suddenly have another indicator proposal to compliment your dynamic value indi..perhaps i pm u seperately...
  • #3,667
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:29am Nov 16, 2011 9:29am
while waiting the broken purple dtl tested, i created this round level indicator.

this one detect chart's background color and decide what color to be used for texts and lines.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: roundlevel-indi.png Size: 28 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ay-PriceScaleLR.mq4   8 KB | 746 downloads
...
  • #3,668
  • Nov 16, 2011 9:33am Nov 16, 2011 9:33am
Quoting Evak
hehe, i would like to see a "tpo count" counter too . speaking of which i suddenly have another indicator proposal to compliment your dynamic value indi..perhaps i pm u seperately...
compliment.. good
...
  • #3,669
  • Nov 16, 2011 10:00am Nov 16, 2011 10:00am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
An unsecure low does not mean u can't take some opportuinities off the session profiles. If u look at it in an aunctioning perspective, the "flat" low of TK session was actually a form bottoming test or failure to auction lower on 4 counts, during period of M,N,O & P. Of coz it would give greater confidence if momentum creeps in on the extreames with minus developement to show, like spikes or tails. But as i mentioned earlier, the Frankfurt opening response that stops the down move eventuate into a agressive buyers when UK opens So this indicated...
thank's, your explanation clarifies somehow the incertitude from last hours adding at this the us futures opens tested the UK low and from there it have been on OTF. i entered long after US have the range extension up. i don't like the location of the trade to much, but hope for the best and watch carefully...
  • #3,670
  • Nov 16, 2011 11:05am Nov 16, 2011 11:05am
Quoting s7c
thank's, your explanation clarifies somehow the incertitude from last hours adding at this the us futures opens tested the UK low and from there it have been on OTF. i entered long after US have the range extension up. i don't like the location of the trade to much, but hope for the best and watch carefully...
Trade location wise it would be better to enter long near the DVAL given that u have access that the A period low would be the session low, as u have known that 95% of the time profile highs & low would have been determine during the IB period. (95% rule)

There is another reason why one may choose not to trade a range extension break out since the UK session fail to range extend & falls back in IBR. This should give caution to any long trade one would have taken if any. So proper tactical trade management like, reduce exposure on short takes & trade risk free, etc, ASAP.

As we speak right now, US pit session current price have also fallen back into IBR (still unfolding nonetheless). But this is today's 2nd time.

Given that the poor low is still unsecureed, only a revisit to that area or below then we could expect OTF interest in this. As of now only the locals are threading the market & twice today it fails to auction higher.
  • #3,671
  • Nov 16, 2011 11:18am Nov 16, 2011 11:18am
Monthly profileL indicates an Anomaly just off the base of rn@3350 could be revisted if weakness prevails furthur then it would be 1500 points down south.


Attached Image
  • #3,672
  • Edited 2:11pm Nov 16, 2011 1:51pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting skyscraper
taomql4,
Great analysis.

How did u plot 12 HR candle stick chart in Mt4?
Please suggest.
Sorry for the late reply ....

Here You Go ...

 

  1. Place it on a chart ...
  2. Set the Multiplier i.e 3 on a 4 hr chart ==12 chart
  3. Open the chart from File Tap , then Open Offline ..


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: scalp short.jpg Size: 109 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 P4L PeriodCon.mq4   55 KB | 520 downloads
  • #3,673
  • Nov 16, 2011 1:53pm Nov 16, 2011 1:53pm
Quoting Evak
On your 3rd chart u have indicated overnight inventory(i presume u are refering to that) was short. Base on settle price of previous session it should be read as "even".

But even so, the 2nd session u indicated is actually a balance continuation of previous profile since it is an inside-day scenario. So that would render the inventory read to be superflous.

Overnight Inventory is just a concept to guage Excesssivenes of an overbought or oversold situation when price is still trading within a range (Balancing phase). Within it, [b]price...

Gotcha , Thanks ..
  • #3,674
  • Nov 16, 2011 4:00pm Nov 16, 2011 4:00pm
Hi

Im still a begginer in this system, I know others systems for do daytrading but I read about this one recently and it called my attention.

I found something that dont make sense for me: why the VA is a 70%??

I can see many times this 70% is too wide and when the price is moving in a trend, the trend is changing during the same day the VA is just something confusing that dont add something usefull to this system.

The Bell Gauss make sense but this VA is like somthing ramdom added to this system.
  • #3,675
  • Nov 16, 2011 4:13pm Nov 16, 2011 4:13pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Trade location wise it would be better to enter long near the DVAL given that u have access that the A period low would be the session low, as u have known that 95% of the time profile highs & low would have been determine during the IB period. (95% rule)

There is another reason why one may choose not to trade a range extension break out since the UK session fail to range extend & falls back in IBR. This should give caution to any long trade one would have taken if any. So proper tactical trade management like, reduce exposure on short takes...
that trade was open by frustration of losing the opportunity of enter in some previous trades and like all this it wasn't enough, because i failed to recognize the failed trade, i lost the opportunity to get a very nice short. seems like i have problems keeping my objectivity...
  • #3,676
  • Nov 16, 2011 5:52pm Nov 16, 2011 5:52pm
Quoting bandung
set to BE at NY pit open,
notice daily POC move up to near asia open, meaning more tpos below poc~more buyer (mom tpo trading).
closed this trade on M close last night,
now when i wake up this morning price already on tokyo low...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-longY-close.png Size: 37 KB
...
  • #3,677
  • Nov 16, 2011 10:37pm Nov 16, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting bandung

notice.. you short right on 1440/5* poc.
i'm in for the long side
if 520 London dpoc && 550 cleared, we can see the virgin 625 which also vpoc** 7200/30 or maybe 780 28800/240*** poc (in my dream )

*dynvalue 1 days
**dynvalue 5 days
***dynvalue 20 days
I did mention i reverse my trade which is around your 2nd buy entry...
  • #3,678
  • Nov 16, 2011 10:49pm Nov 16, 2011 10:49pm
I reverse my long trade, this one was done when price trace back down the DVAH of (yesterday).

So NY session reverse rx back down & we have a minor excess running off TK low today with fail rx too. So Which session would one weigh as the more critical one?

Anyway price adjustment back into control by european session, next immediate reference.

I be hanging on risk free now on reduce exposure, may no be able to creep back in when UK starts for screentime.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_13 Nov. 17 12.32.gif Size: 59 KB
  • #3,679
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:14am Nov 17, 2011 6:14am
I experiment with MBT tick data to get tpos for each price...
dont know much about MBT tick data quality.
but here it is the result
yesterday max tpo is in 3501 - 3505 prices with 29738 ticks.
tokyo high is around this prices


if we can get a real time ticks... mmh. I know there is an ea that can record mt4 tick, but it need 5*24 hour online computer w/o interrupt which i dont have
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tick-tpo.PNG Size: 83 KB
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  • #3,680
  • Nov 17, 2011 6:23am Nov 17, 2011 6:23am
I entered short on London H period, after seeing price look like hesitate to auction higher than the Big Down Bar D on 5mnts chart.
the main reason for this trade is that london IB is cant auction higher than tokyo vah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-shortY.png Size: 59 KB
Attached Image
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