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What did you change to start being profitable?

  • #61
  • Nov 15, 2011 3:43pm Nov 15, 2011 3:43pm
Quoting arjfca
...what did you change in your habits.
I've been a successful trader for a number of years now, but one of the most important lessons I learned was that I did not need to know which direction the market would go, in order to be consistently profitable.

For eons, I thought I needed to know the next Directional move. It turns out that I don't. All I need to do was adjust my attitude about losing capital.

Today, I can lose on 10-30 trades and still walk away from the market with my target number of pips secured, some number of pips secured, or very near break even for the day, the vast majority of the time. That replaces fear of loss with the confidence of knowing that sooner or later, the market will do what it needs to do, in order to fulfill one of the promises above - the vast majority of the time.

Developing an - "I don't care which way the market goes" attitude, removes the fear and eliminates the need for greed.
Y = MX + B. The most important price level of all.
  • #62
  • Nov 15, 2011 6:05pm Nov 15, 2011 6:05pm
realy,how can you predict the futer,without the past,im not sugesting the past replays itsself,but tell me how u see the futer without past history.

werte begins your thought
  • #63
  • Nov 16, 2011 3:30am Nov 16, 2011 3:30am
Quoting Line In Sand
I've been a successful trader for a number of years now, but one of the most important lessons I learned was that I did not need to know which direction the market would go, in order to be consistently profitable.

For eons, I thought I needed to know the next Directional move. It turns out that I don't. All I need to do was adjust my attitude about losing capital.

Today, I can lose on 10-30 trades and still walk away from the market with my target number of pips secured, some number of pips secured, or very near break even for the day, the...
I'm agree with you Line, no one can predict exactly where the price next direction moves. we just need to follow the price previous direction

Best regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #64
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:15pm Nov 17, 2011 7:15pm
1:2 Risk/Reward. Once I experienced the power of that, the rest of the stuff is semantics. Seriously. 1:2 means you can set and forget your orders and you only need to be correct 40% of the time to make money. You can literally flip a coin and do better than 40% can't you? Once you dial in what values to plug in for your stop loss and profit target, it's a cake walk to make money over time. Add in some analysis/systems/methods that increase your accuracy and you're there. Sure, I only need to be correct 40% of the time, but it's nicer to be correct 70%-80% of the time.

I actually have a real money account I'm using to demonstrate this fact to some non-believers.

Where people screw this up is not taking the loss and letting small losers turn in to big losers. And/or revenge trading to make up a loss or two. Either trading larger, more frequently, or a combo of both.

I also found that understanding the concept that mathematically adhering to 1:2 it is statistically impossible to blow out was a huge a psychological barrier breaker. Once I understood that the numbers are such in my favor, I can just fire off trades and execute without fear or greed because the money takes care of itself. A string of losses is no big deal because it only takes a few wins to make it up. Trades that go beyond 1:2 make it up sooner.

I'm sure most traders get sick of hearing about r:r. But it's not the type of thing you can be book smart about.. you need to be habit smart.
  • #65
  • Nov 17, 2011 7:21pm Nov 17, 2011 7:21pm
Quoting Du Jin Shan
I'm agree with you Line, no one can predict exactly where the price next direction moves. we just need to follow the price previous direction

Best regards,
Jin Shan
I think there can be a distinct difference between forecasting direction and predicting direction. One is based on establishing probabilities whereas the other seems more about certainty in something that is rather uncertain.

I'm about forecasting and I believe it is possible to pick not just where but when markets turn. In fact, learning to use "time" as an indicator was when my trading really took off. Combined with maintaining 1:2 r:r and it's my personal holy grail.

Limited thinking = limited possibilities.
  • #66
  • Nov 17, 2011 11:46pm Nov 17, 2011 11:46pm
Quoting JR97
1:2 Risk/Reward. Once I experienced the power of that, the rest of the stuff is semantics. Seriously. 1:2 means you can set and forget your orders and you only need to be correct 40% of the time to make money. You can literally flip a coin and do better than 40% can't you? Once you dial in what values to plug in for your stop loss and profit target, it's a cake walk to make money over time. Add in some analysis/systems/methods that increase your accuracy and you're there. Sure, I only need to be correct 40% of the time, but it's nicer to...
you make it sound like you can enter at random and make money with an R:R of 1:2. Utter bollocks. If you really enter at random then the following rule applies: the higher the R:R, the lower the win-rate. In the end you will still blow your account if you don't have an edge.
  • #67
  • Nov 18, 2011 7:15am Nov 18, 2011 7:15am
rinse, repeat. Make the pips in good strong (planned) runs, not in overleveraging or risking too much of ur portfolio.
  • #68
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:42am Nov 18, 2011 10:42am
Quoting JR97
1:2 Risk/Reward. Once I experienced the power of that, the rest of the stuff is semantics. Seriously. 1:2 means you can set and forget your orders and you only need to be correct 40% of the time to make money. You can literally flip a coin and do better than 40% can't you? Once you dial in what values to plug in for your stop loss and profit target, it's a cake walk to make money over time. Add in some analysis/systems/methods that increase your accuracy and you're there. Sure, I only need to be correct 40% of the time, but it's nicer to...
I think Risk:reward must stick to the trading system.
with a low win rate of trading system, then we must adjust our risk reward bigger.
with a high win rate of trading system, then we can adjust our risk reward smaller. okay a quoestion, why should we lower the risk:reward, again i will say the trading system may choppy and hunt for a lot of profit to compensated the bigger loss.

for example:
(1:0.5) (risk:reward) with a 70% win rate, risking 1 % equity

we have 100 trade
the winning trade is 70 trade
and losing trade is 30 trade

each losing position give 1% loss
each winning position give 0.5% win

substact it
30 trade X -1 % = -30% (loss)
70 trade X +0.5% = +35% (win) -
----------------------------------
= +5%

you see, it still profit, athough with a lower reward

Risk:reward is a thing that we adjust with our own trading system.
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #69
  • Nov 18, 2011 10:48am Nov 18, 2011 10:48am
Quoting JR97
1:2 Risk/Reward. Once I experienced the power of that, the rest of the stuff is semantics. Seriously. 1:2 means you can set and forget your orders and you only need to be correct 40% of the time to make money. You can literally flip a coin and do better than 40% can't you? Once you dial in what values to plug in for your stop loss and profit target, it's a cake walk to make money over time. Add in some analysis/systems/methods that increase your accuracy and you're there. Sure, I only need to be correct 40% of the time, but it's nicer to...
This is gold mate. I wonder how many people trully understand the concept. It seems easy yet so hard to grasp. The R:R is directly related to the nature of the markets that make profits possible -> the trend. Unlike win rate.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #70
  • Last Post: Nov 18, 2011 10:48am Nov 18, 2011 10:48am
Quoting JR97
I think there can be a distinct difference between forecasting direction and predicting direction. One is based on establishing probabilities whereas the other seems more about certainty in something that is rather uncertain.

I'm about forecasting and I believe it is possible to pick not just where but when markets turn. In fact, learning to use "time" as an indicator was when my trading really took off. Combined with maintaining 1:2 r:r and it's my personal holy grail.

Limited thinking = limited possibilities.
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
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