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Ichimoku forever

  • #16,401
  • Edited 10:04pm Nov 8, 2011 9:53pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting Vnfx
Hi Saif,
I am impressed by your knowledge about Ichimoku and just wonder you are really at the age of 17? Anyway, it's nice to have new members with fresh ideas. Could you share about your ichimoku trading system, TF, entry signals, exit, SL, TP, etc. if possible?
Hello Vnfx How are you doing?Yes I am 17 and seriously not bragging I got 17 this September ! I am a swing trader as well as scalper , I am 99% into technical analysis !! I use the ichiomku along with stochastic as a momentum indicator, SD extreme channel , along with that trend lines, Support and Resistance and the 200 day SMA ! On what I have learnt about time frames from my teacher I use all of them starting from 15 min to monthly ! For Scalping I use the 15 min-1H for( 20-30 pips daily) with a risk of 1-2% of equity daily and tight stops !!and higher time frame for swing trading aka forecasting!I look for 40% ROI every month( some people would laugh at this here but its quite possible)! I use time frames as a confluence to enter a trade !for suppose If the H1 and H4 are giving good buy signals but the weekly is just touching at the bottom of the weekly fresh cloud indicating reversal to the down I wouldn't feel comfortable to enter a buy there ! I use the SL on longer time frame where I feel that that the trade could move against me !
  • #16,402
  • Nov 8, 2011 10:04pm Nov 8, 2011 10:04pm
The pair is approaching the correction point at 1.3952 but as it has broken the trend line of the up on the H4 there is a correction due at that point ! I am looking for a trend change to the south from that 1.3952 but the pair could also move higher to 1.4200 before reversing !



http://i1128.photobucket.com/albums/...uheed/sd-3.gif
  • #16,403
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:21am Nov 9, 2011 12:21am
Hello Swingfiddle

Interesting observation your post Nov 7. What time frame are you looking at?[/quote]

Hi Rafki,i am watching H1 as i believe its something in the middle,not very small to get lost in fast up and downs and not very big to loose the intraday action.before a trade i ll watch bigger TF also,for strong S/r,also if you put the period seperetors from options you can see 4 days before in h1 frame
Never again will fade the trend
  • #16,404
  • Nov 9, 2011 6:30am Nov 9, 2011 6:30am
Thank you Swingfiddle, I will monitor and see how it works.
  • #16,405
  • Nov 9, 2011 12:16pm Nov 9, 2011 12:16pm
Trading Platform: FXCM II Trading Station
Time Frame: 4 hours
Tools: Fibonacci retracement (modified): 0.764, 0.618, 0.500, 0.382, 0.236, 0.00, -0.236, -0.382, -0.618
Ichimoku Default Setting
MVA 200

First Fib will offset the disadvantage of Ichi as the entry always seems to be at the overbought position (where signal tell you to go in). With Fib level you know when to go in without bearing too much of losses during the entry.

2. Reason why adding MVA 200 is because that it will be solid if you trade MVA 200 with the cloud position: Long trade would be candel cross above the MVA 200, and the candle is above cloud, would be a very good trading signal.

Trading Signal

1. Candle stick cross above/below MVA200 (need to confirm with the cloud position)
2. Trading signal of typical ichimoku: My favorite: Kumo Breakout, Tekan-Kijun Crosses, and Candle stick crosses Kijun-sen
3. Trading rebounces using Fib level with Ichimoku cloud (first level of resistance/supporting of cloud); Fib level with MVA 200 (have to confirm with the cloud position). Sometimes, Fib level will meet both Cloud res/sup level and MVA, may expect strong rebounces.

Condition:

1. Fib level has to be placed correctly in order to go for entry.
2. I always use fib level for profit taking
3. Well have to discipline yourself such as profit taking and entry point.

Practice:

Normally my step would be first observing the Candle Position whether it is above or below cloud, next would see the MVA 200 position as well. If trading signal occurred, i always confirm with cloud position. If the condition is favor for entry, then i would use Fib level to decide my profit taking. When placing the entry, i would strictly place the entry right at the crosses, or if not would place entry using the fib level.

Most of the time would be playing with fib level and ichimoku.

Possible conflict: Lets say candle stick cross below MVA 200, but still the candle stick is above the cloud. In this position i would not trade untill it crosses below cloud. Actually from my opinion, MVA is pretty solid, If you can confirm with cloud is even better. All in all, MVA is very lagging.

For stop loss, i would always allow 1-3% of my equity for the stop loss.
  • #16,406
  • Nov 9, 2011 4:19pm Nov 9, 2011 4:19pm
Hi guys i am brainstorming on how i would minimize the losses,i think thats the problem in trading,because otherwise, once in a trend you have the tenkan for compass and trailing stop,(from watching hundrends of charts if price crosses the tenkan then price has to check kjun and cloud and i would not like to be in when price is pulling back,so i am strict on the believe that tenkan is my deal to stay or get out a trade).More or less everyone here has his way of trailing a trend once in,my exit would be a close in the opposite side of tenkan.


But what i want to talk about is the stop loss,how many times have you find yourself setting a nice stop above kjun for example(in a downtrend), just to see price spike,hit your stop- reject the kijun and continue the downtrend as you predicted
what if you dont set a stop loss but a stop order?

example:
you sell at x price 0,05 lots because you believe that you have a nice entry in something that looks like a very promising downtrend.
Then price suddenly goes the opposite way-truth is that we dont know what will happen,will it reverse?will it start to be choppy again? or pullback and begin the downtrend for good?we really dont know for sure,we just have more chance with our analysis for the price to do something(but even if we are gurus and we know for sure where price will go ,we dont know the volatility-we cannot predict spikes)

The idea is that instead of putting a stop loss that will probably be hitted and reduse your balance,why not put a buy stop order of 0,1 lots so if price reverses north you are buyng with 0,1(buy stop)-,0,05(initial sell)=0,05 lots and you can decide to get out once in a profit or break even or stay in waiting for adding for the initial short once it reverses to the downtrend

So if price wants to go down again you put a 0,1 lot sell stop order instead of a stop loss,
so now we have 3 orders that sum up a 0,5 sell order!but the prize is that you lost nothing(or very little) on this choppy moves.and you are ready to add once a trend begins

i hope that what i explained is understandable..its not a strategy but an idea that could be developed in a strategy with more brains invlolving lol
Never again will fade the trend
  • #16,407
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:12pm Nov 9, 2011 8:12pm
The idea is that instead of putting a stop loss that will probably be hitted and reduse your balance,why not put a buy stop order of 0,1 lots so if price reverses north you are buyng with 0,1(buy stop)-,0,05(initial sell)=0,05 lots and you can decide to get out once in a profit or break even or stay in waiting for adding for the initial short once it reverses to the downtrend

So if price wants to go down again you put a 0,1 lot sell stop order instead of a stop loss,
so now we have 3 orders that sum up a 0,5 sell order!but the prize is that you lost nothing(or very little) on this choppy moves.and you are ready to add once a trend begins

i hope that what i explained is understandable..its not a strategy but an idea that could be developed in a strategy with more brains invlolving lol[/quote]

Using your example of the down trend, and assuming that for the downtrend is going to continue. Using this assumption, we go for the short trade and place the stop loss, once hit the stop loss, then enter "at" the stop loss again until the trend start forming so that you won't miss the trade.

One of the flaw is that what if it retraces back more than your comfortable loss? would you go in again? But at the same time, you are sure that the trend would continue for the downtrend. What should you do? As i once try this method before, eventually it reach my comfortable loss level and i quit the trade, but the thing is that the downtrend follow after i quit. WTF!? Yea Seriously wtf.
  • #16,408
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:28pm Nov 9, 2011 8:28pm
Hi Guys

These is my point of view towards EU market. I believe trend still intact as BEARISH instead of BULL.....my target is 78.6% fibo

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  • #16,409
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:58am Nov 13, 2011 3:58am
Looking for a short on the break of support around 1.5555.

GBP/AUD H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,410
  • Nov 13, 2011 12:28pm Nov 13, 2011 12:28pm
Quoting fosking
Looking for a short on the break of support around 1.5555.

GBP/AUD H1
Attachment
Price looks like it will open around the level I was planning to get in at.
I would like to see a pull back up towards the 1.5600 to short now.

GBP/AUD H1
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  • #16,411
  • Nov 13, 2011 12:44pm Nov 13, 2011 12:44pm
Gold looks like it could by lining up for a nice long at support around the 1,775 level.
I would be a little worried going long near the resistance without some kind of pullback and buying the top with a fake breakout.

Gold H1
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  • #16,412
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:11pm Nov 13, 2011 3:11pm
Quoting fosking
Price looks like it will open around the level I was planning to get in at.
I would like to see a pull back up towards the 1.5600 to short now.

GBP/AUD H1
Attachment
Update:
I managed to get the pull back up to the 1.5600 level but missed my entry as I was away.
Got in at 1.5580 with a SL at 1.5635 (55 pips) and a TP of 1.5400 (180 pips).

GBP/AUD H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #16,413
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:22pm Nov 13, 2011 3:22pm
Another trade I have taken this evening is long AUD/JPY at 79.66.
I waited for a pull pack towards the cloud before entering.
The 80.30 level may be a little tough to crack, but if successful, I will be looking to play up around the 81.50 level (35 pip SL and 183 pip TP).

AUD/JPY H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ1.png Size: 145 KB
  • #16,414
  • Nov 13, 2011 3:55pm Nov 13, 2011 3:55pm
Hey Pipassassin, try to read de thread from page 940, I think that if you almost read the first 100 pages, it could be enough to take a good idea of the system, boss include.
  • #16,415
  • Nov 13, 2011 11:31pm Nov 13, 2011 11:31pm
Quoting fosking
Another trade I have taken this evening is long AUD/JPY at 79.66.
I waited for a pull pack towards the cloud before entering.
The 80.30 level may be a little tough to crack, but if successful, I will be looking to play up around the 81.50 level (35 pip SL and 183 pip TP).

AUD/JPY H1
Attachment
First trade was stopped out at -35.
Re-entered at 79.37 with a tight 15 pip stop.
I don't normally trade with targets and just follow up price with a manual SL

AUD/JPY H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ1.png Size: 140 KB
  • #16,416
  • Nov 13, 2011 11:43pm Nov 13, 2011 11:43pm
[quote=fosking;5129280]Another trade I have taken this evening is long AUD/JPY at 79.66.
I waited for a pull pack towards the cloud before entering.
The 80.30 level may be a little tough to crack, but if successful, I will be looking to play up around the 81.50 level (35 pip SL and 183 pip TP).

It was a loss trade, wasn't it? I think 35pip SL is too tight for H1 timeframe. It should under the cloud i.e 100pip SL, or at least under Kijun Sen (79.00). What do you think?
Accept as it is being!
  • #16,417
  • Nov 13, 2011 11:55pm Nov 13, 2011 11:55pm
Quoting fosking
Another trade I have taken this evening is long AUD/JPY at 79.66.
I waited for a pull pack towards the cloud before entering.
The 80.30 level may be a little tough to crack, but if successful, I will be looking to play up around the 81.50 level (35 pip SL and 183 pip TP).

It was a loss trade, wasn't it? I think 35pip SL is too tight for H1 time frame. It should under the cloud i.e 100pip SL, or at least under Kijun Sen (79.00). What do you think?
I would personally never use a 100 pip SL for H1 charts.
I like to keep my stops tight to bail at the first sign of me being wrong.
If that means I am stopped out a little more, so be it.
When I began tightening my stops it was a massive step towards profitability.
As a guide I look to the top of the cloud for support in an uptrend and the bottom for resistance in a downtrend.
I've been trading this way for some time now and it works for me.
I would normally have two stabs at a pair and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and just move on to look for other opportunities.

Seeing some USD strength now which is pulling gold and the AUD pairs down.
  • #16,418
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:00am Nov 14, 2011 12:00am
Quoting jimobiwan
I see Ichi charts with clouds extended to the right of the price action.

This is what i get on my system, the price action and cloud are in-line with each other.

Is this a normal Ichi chart or is the setting wrong? I am using the default setting.
Hi,

I am new to using Ichimoku and facing the same predicament. I also using TQ charts. I checked this against Metastock charts and it is the same. I would appreciate any help from you or other members who are kind enough to provide a solution to this "problem"
  • #16,419
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:00am Nov 14, 2011 12:00am
Why don't use the cloud+buffer. Manesh Patel and kumotrader web site recommends that and again it is a personal choice.

My two cents.

Quoting fosking
I would personally never use a 100 pip SL for H1 charts.
I like to keep my stops tight to bail at the first sign of me being wrong.
If that means I am stopped out a little more, so be it.
When I began tightening my stops it was a massive step towards profitability.
As a guide I look to the top of the cloud for support in an uptrend and the bottom for resistance in a downtrend.
I've been trading this way for some time now and it works for me.
I would normally have two stabs at a pair and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong and just move on to look for other...
  • #16,420
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:18am Nov 14, 2011 12:18am
Quoting edmturk
Why don't use the cloud+buffer. Manesh Patel and kumotrader web site recommends that and again it is a personal choice.

My two cents.
Hi edmturk,
When I started trading Ichimoku (a while ago) I had never heard of Manesh Patel and the others and learned Ichimoku by myself which is why I trade it slightly differently.
Over the last few years I have tinkered and tweaked it so it fits my style.
I trade a few different time frames in this style and can be both long and short on a pair using different times frames (such as M15 and daily) but would be too confusing if I started to post if I'm long and short on any pair at one time.
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