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The Really Useless Thread

  • #32,901
  • Nov 11, 2011 10:54am Nov 11, 2011 10:54am
Quoting Venice
I just wish they would quite jacking up my charts.
Breaking: cocaine snorting EURUSD traders send pair soaring on yet another series of Eurovoting
  • #32,902
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:02am Nov 11, 2011 11:02am
Quoting darimik
interesting.. very optimistic outlook.
Well more than optimistic a bit realistic in the sense that US numbers definitively are confirming the bottom. Sure this doesn't mean a bull market, no not yet with EU going in to negative growth this quarter, but a rally to neutral levels separating bulls and bears is the FA level to be in the ES in my books.

Short term panic crisis on the EZ still will be the hiccups in the process (as long as it doesn't collapse obviously...otherwise we are back to 1000 and below to test the 2008/9 lows on a double dip)....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #32,903
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:11am Nov 11, 2011 11:11am
Quoting gatorinla
s 3690
actually s/o of this one for 1/4% and another 1/4% from 3738..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,904
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:22am Nov 11, 2011 11:22am
Quoting gatorinla
i don't know if the 4h cosolidation was enough to target 3821/22+. but its there.
im gonna focus on 3689.. ran my head about 3680/81.... 90.....97.....
im gonna say 89, maybe a little further is a st top. and more then likely the top to this move. take with a grain of salt.. from just another nut on the net.
the current high is just a few pips from 80/81.. maybe we hit the high.. i still wait.
i look here
i was wrong.. in hind sight i should of not traded.. but would do as many of these setups as in can get in the future.
3821 is a less then probable level.. at least when i posted it was. the 4h consolidation helped. once it got the domino to 3681. it made a hh. setting a new imperfect target. (less then 80% at the time, a 50/50 trade. )

atm from here to 3850.. we have a high probability to go to 3650 area.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,905
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:26am Nov 11, 2011 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
i look here
i was wrong.. in hind sight i should of not traded.. but would do as many of these setups as in can get in the future.
3821 is a less then probable level.. at least when i posted it was. the 4h consolidation helped. once it got the domino to 3681. it made a hh. setting a new imperfect target. (less then 80% at the time, a 50/50 trade. )

atm from here to 3850.. we have a high probability to go to 3650 area.
Im still looking at 3940+ for upside....your 3650-ish for down
  • #32,906
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:30am Nov 11, 2011 11:30am
Quoting darimik
yeah.. and the overvalued bastard just recovered on the weekly and monthly.

last time I loaded up on was 1290. i didnt expect it to go past 1260 today. I dont know what to expect if we go above 1290. panics are way better .

Attachment
i see it decoupling for the eu at some point. the ecb buying bonds w/o real market help is not sustainable. they cant buy forever w/o printing. 100 buck nymx oil should make all toppy
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,907
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:35am Nov 11, 2011 11:35am
Quoting sisse
Well more than optimistic a bit realistic in the sense that US numbers definitively are confirming the bottom. Sure this doesn't mean a bull market, no not yet with EU going in to negative growth this quarter, but a rally to neutral levels separating bulls and bears is the FA level to be in the ES in my books.

Short term panic crisis on the EZ still will be the hiccups in the process (as long as it doesn't collapse obviously...otherwise we are back to 1000 and below to test the 2008/9 lows on a double dip)....

sisse
interesting to see how that negative growth is not detrimental to the whole concept of borrowing.

current deficits must be financed by tomorrow's surpluses.. and the rate of debt growth should not exceed the rate of growth.

government cannot increase its debts faster than the interest rate. otherwise they are insolvent by definition. net present value of the debt becomes negative in such case.

just some basic theories of course, when it gets to governments and public debt, it becomes a bit tricky I guess. just trying to get my head around it.
  • #32,908
  • Edited 11:59am Nov 11, 2011 11:40am | Edited 11:59am
Quote
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post5125328
Quote
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post5125662

done my $22 in Gold..[closing my week]


nice and beautiful weekend to All..

P
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  • #32,909
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:49am Nov 11, 2011 11:49am
Quoting needpips
Im still looking at 3940+ for upside....your 3650-ish for down
we made a LL this week. we are in the bounce atm. i wouldn't get too crazy. the ecb bought bonds. the Greeks have a new leader. until one of them starts shitting golden eggs. nothing has changed. the Greeks and Italian governments employ a large % of their workforce. laying them off is just gonna make more laid off workers in the short term. cutting their pay makes less money available to fund the ponzi scheme. so anyone selling anything there sells less. more unemployment and less wages = less money to fund the governments. the projected data used is all ozz bs. what they gain in firing workers. is bs in the st. they will still pay these people not to work for a year or more. instead of a government check for working, the will get a government check for not working. these people will not be paying taxes. the austerity, the banks not marketing to market. its all bs..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,910
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:55am Nov 11, 2011 11:55am
stop at BE...gonna close it around 1.3645....and be flat for the weekend
  • #32,911
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:57am Nov 11, 2011 11:57am
Quoting gatorinla
we made a LL this week. we are in the bounce atm. i wouldn't get too crazy. the ecb bought bonds. the Greeks have a new leader. until one of them starts shitting golden eggs. nothing has changed. the Greeks and Italian governments employ a large % of their workforce. laying them off is just gonna make more laid off workers in the short term. cutting their pay makes less money available to fund the ponzi scheme. so anyone selling anything there sells less. more unemployment and less wages = less money to fund the governments. the projected data...
The unemploy pay has always made me laugh...especially when pelosi used it as an argument for growth...LMFAO
  • #32,912
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:57am Nov 11, 2011 11:57am
Quoting needpips
stop at BE...gonna close it around 1.3645....and be flat for the weekend
3750 area would be a nice end to the week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,913
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:59am Nov 11, 2011 11:59am
Quoting needpips
The unemploy pay has always made me laugh...especially when pelosi used it as an argument for growth...LMFAO
contrary to political talking points.. there are less u.s. government employees then there was 3 years ago.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,914
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:03pm Nov 11, 2011 12:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
contrary to political talking points.. there are less u.s. government employees then there was 3 years ago.
yep...our local bldg dept has laid off 30%+ and a lot of nontenured cops just got laid off....I figure the riots begin when the ghetto stops gettin their checks
  • #32,915
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:04pm Nov 11, 2011 12:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
3750 area would be a nice end to the week.
Closed it for 22+....I have been playing the 12est fade on Fridays....almost a brain free trade
  • #32,916
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:32pm Nov 11, 2011 12:32pm
Quoting needpips
yep...our local bldg dept has laid off 30%+ and a lot of nontenured cops just got laid off....I figure the riots begin when the ghetto stops gettin their checks
cops? guys with guns w/o a job. the u.s. is ozz too. people who think they were/are great businessmen living on the greenspan welfare program. will be greatly shocked when a real market starts. i was paying 20% + on business loans. today most of these welfare millionaires cant run a business w/o fed welfare. what we see in not real. since 1987/88 its all bullshit. if you got a 4 bedroom house with a pool and a automatic ass warmer in your bmw. its more then likely from, the fed welfare program.. and it will take decades to get back on track.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,917
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:39pm Nov 11, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting needpips
Closed it for 22+....I have been playing the 12est fade on Fridays....almost a brain free trade
Try walking in my shoes for awhile... ALL my trades are brain free...
  • #32,918
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:39pm Nov 11, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting needpips
Closed it for 22+....I have been playing the 12est fade on Fridays....almost a brain free trade
still holding
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #32,919
  • Nov 11, 2011 12:43pm Nov 11, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting darimik
interesting to see how that negative growth is not detrimental to the whole concept of borrowing.

current deficits must be financed by tomorrow's surpluses.. and the rate of debt growth should not exceed the rate of growth.

government cannot increase its debts faster than the interest rate. otherwise they are insolvent by definition. net present value of the debt becomes negative in such case.

just some basic theories of course, when it gets to governments and public debt, it becomes a bit tricky I guess. just trying to get my head around it....
Good analysis but I would add one variable in the equation that is making the theory (any economic theory) miss perspective: TIME.

Your analysis is right but the relation between growth, debt and interest rates is only correct in a static scenario. By definition the debt you are talking is affecting a 10 yr timeframe as minimum while the economic negative growth is only for this quarter and slow rate expected for next year while the interest rate/inflation expectation are more or less for 3 or 4 quarters (beyond they become statistically not reliable as the external shocks become harder to evaluate).

In simple words, as in trading you can't expect a monthly S to hold clean in the 1st test in M1 but only after the accumulation process is finish (in 1 hour or in 2 weeks), etc, etc. In this case, negative growth will be a killer for borrowing if its sustain in a recession (at least 2 negative quarters) to make it significant.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #32,920
  • Nov 11, 2011 1:04pm Nov 11, 2011 1:04pm
PTL = fat & sassy...
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