AUD/USD | Page 1775 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #35,481
  • Nov 9, 2011 6:37pm Nov 9, 2011 6:37pm
Risk off, Bigtime. Data release insignifficant.
At the moment AUD will go south...

Still in short from 1.0141, TP 0.9941, SL moved to 1.0161
Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,482
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:01pm Nov 9, 2011 7:01pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Risk off, Bigtime. Data release insignifficant.
At the moment AUD will go south...

Still in short from 1.0141, TP 0.9941, SL moved to 1.0161
RISK is definitely OFF.
It is more like FEAR!

I lowered my entry from 1.0150 to match yours at 1.0141..
You must be on to something why you are getting the rides, and im not.
  • #35,483
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:03pm Nov 9, 2011 7:03pm
Not so bad news and a 1hr close above 2 last lines with spinning top and next candle will tell. Its all up to asian markets to give risk on for some retrace here..GL
  • #35,484
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:09pm Nov 9, 2011 7:09pm
STILL sitting out here... it'll pay off eventually
  • #35,485
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:23pm Nov 9, 2011 7:23pm
Quoting taxe91
STILL sitting out here... it'll pay off eventually
where do u plan to enter?
  • #35,486
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:32pm Nov 9, 2011 7:32pm
Quoting BurgerKing
where do u plan to enter?
strangely enough im looking at a time frame rather than a price. the aus unemployment rate did nothing so now im waiting on the chinese trade balance, and i need to get some idea what the european equities and italy's bonds are doing today.

i remember the day after that 300 pip gain to 1.073, we were very flat the following day. and unless im mistaken yesterday was close to a 300 pip day too, so im sitting on my hands for now

edit: also the chart posted by redsword here, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post5118314 . that inverse H&S is a little intimidating. proceeding with caution
  • #35,487
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:39pm Nov 9, 2011 7:39pm
how about yourself burger did you manage to get in yet
  • #35,488
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:26pm Nov 9, 2011 8:26pm
Quoting taxe91
how about yourself burger did you manage to get in yet
He did change his order to 1.0141 (short) so I think he did.

I'm still long from yesterday on a few positions, targeting for it to retrace at least to 1.020 before dipping down all the way to parity.

So far so good, the pair tested 1.0110 and rebounded about 40+ pips.

On the inverse H&S, as I called it a few weeks ago, I think we might get to parity, but once market confidence comes back, or Germany finally relents in using ECB as the big bazooka that US is calling for, the risk sentiment will come back and the pair should shoot up all the way to 1.1 or higher.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,489
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:40pm Nov 9, 2011 8:40pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
He did change his order to 1.0141 (short) so I think he did.

I'm still long from yesterday on a few positions, targeting for it to retrace at least to 1.020 before dipping down all the way to parity.

So far so good, the pair tested 1.0110 and rebounded about 40+ pips.

On the inverse H&S, as I called it a few weeks ago, I think we might get to parity, but once market confidence comes back, or Germany finally relents in using ECB as the big bazooka that US is calling for, the risk sentiment will come back and the pair should shoot up...
ah okay, yep i jumped on a long for the rest of the syd/asia session. should be able to scrounge some more pips before london opens and then well we'll just have to see what happens.

i feel strangely safe going long from down near 1.012, it doesnt take much to trigger risk appetite in this pair and theres been plenty of fruitful bounces in this area (bounce from 1.012 last month and the bounce from 1.0210 last week).

just remains to be seen how far this one can get before resuming its descent
  • #35,490
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:24pm Nov 9, 2011 9:24pm
Quoting taxe91
ah okay, yep i jumped on a long for the rest of the syd/asia session. should be able to scrounge some more pips before london opens and then well we'll just have to see what happens.

i feel strangely safe going long from down near 1.012, it doesnt take much to trigger risk appetite in this pair and theres been plenty of fruitful bounces in this area (bounce from 1.012 last month and the bounce from 1.0210 last week).

just remains to be seen how far this one can get before resuming its descent
Agreed. I also feel like going long closer to parity is a safer option compared to going short until it's confirmed that we are not in an inverse H&S chart pattern + it seems any news can trigger the risk on scenario nowadays.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,491
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:09pm Nov 9, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Agreed. I also feel like going long closer to parity is a safer option compared to going short until it's confirmed that we are not in an inverse H&S chart pattern + it seems any news can trigger the risk on scenario nowadays.
I hope you are right for your sake, but I would be shorting in this environment (guess thats why I'm short AUD at the moment)

We will see what happens when Europe opens, 4h...

Good luck to all
Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,492
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:19pm Nov 9, 2011 10:19pm
i have a sell limit at 1.0245 with s/l at 1.0405 and t/p at 0.9945
  • #35,493
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:22pm Nov 9, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Agreed. I also feel like going long closer to parity is a safer option compared to going short until it's confirmed that we are not in an inverse H&S chart pattern + it seems any news can trigger the risk on scenario nowadays.
yeah except theres almost zero momentum on this pullback. asian equities are getting wrecked today, the chinese data did not help the hang seng its on pace to lose 5%.
what we need is for one of the euro ministers to come out and spout some rubbish that the euro problems will be solved and then we'll be back at 1.03 in no time. it'll be a big surprise if we keep sliding today without any more news out of europe
  • #35,494
  • Nov 9, 2011 10:23pm Nov 9, 2011 10:23pm
Quoting fx-rocket
I hope you are right for your sake, but I would be shorting in this environment (guess thats why I'm short AUD at the moment)

We will see what happens when Europe opens, 4h...

Good luck to all
GL to you to. I have enough margin to cover a huge spike in the opposite way of what I'm targeting, so I am not worried even if it goes against my trade. Plus I can carry trade a long AUD/USD position and still make interest, so no biggie.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,495
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:19pm Nov 9, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting taxe91
how about yourself burger did you manage to get in yet
I went in at 1.0141.
it wasnt going down and managed to close at -1.0; small lot.

HOW I WILL TRADE EUROPE OPEN:
Yesterday, sell off was driven solely by Italian Bond Yield.

SCENARIO:
CASE A. If Italian Bond Yield goes down, AUDUSD should rally back above 1.0200. The more yield goes down, the more AUD will rally.
CASE B. If Italian Bond Yield remains like it was yesterday. I will remain flat.
CASE C. If Italian Bond Yield went higher than yesterday, everybody will be spooked much more than yesterday and AUDUSD should drop like a rock perhaps even below parity.

Also, I will be watching ECB. It was clamored that ECB should become the Lender of Last Resort for Europe. This will suck up all German and French money out of their pockets. But very unlikely to happen as ECB is mandated NOT TO FUNCTION AS SUCH. Could be interesting if it does happen.

Italian Berlusconi is another dark horse. If he goes bunga bunga, risk off again. This stud likes to F**K around...
  • #35,496
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:23pm Nov 9, 2011 11:23pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Agreed. I also feel like going long closer to parity is a safer option compared to going short until it's confirmed that we are not in an inverse H&S chart pattern + it seems any news can trigger the risk on scenario nowadays.

Last Sep it dropped near parity, I went long @ 1.0050.

We know what happened back then.

The more this keeps falling the more people go long and this triggers more drop. ie, SSI
  • #35,497
  • Nov 9, 2011 11:33pm Nov 9, 2011 11:33pm
Quoting BurgerKing
I went in at 1.0141.
it wasnt going down and managed to close at -1.0; small lot.

HOW I WILL TRADE EUROPE OPEN:
Yesterday, sell off was driven solely by Italian Bond Yield.

SCENARIO:
CASE A. If Italian Bond Yield goes down, AUDUSD should rally back above 1.0200. The more yield goes down, the more AUD will rally.
CASE B. If Italian Bond Yield remains like it was yesterday. I will remain flat.
CASE C. If Italian Bond Yield went higher than yesterday, everybody will be spooked much more than yesterday and AUDUSD should drop like a rock perhaps...
in regards to case C, im skeptical if we could get a selloff of the same magnitude as yesterday. i think the selloff had more to do with the debt yield reaching that 7% mark, the number that proved to be a trouble zone for greek, portugal and ireland, rather than the amount of the rise (sorry if my wording is poor). pretty much what im saying is if even if it were to go up another 5% today, i dont think it would be as significant as its rise yesterday. im going with case B, looking at a comparatively flat day today, maybe some consolidation in the 1.01x area.

the PM drama could cause some more trouble though, the greeks gave us a decoy announcement last night i dont think the markets appreciated that.
  • #35,498
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:33am Nov 10, 2011 12:33am
just got shaken out of my long by that little stop hunt, considering re-entry going to keep an eye on pa
  • #35,499
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:35am Nov 10, 2011 12:35am
restesting lows right now
  • #35,500
  • Nov 10, 2011 1:02am Nov 10, 2011 1:02am
Quoting BurgerKing
restesting lows right now
and it broke the low now my friend congratulations
324 traders viewing now