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AUD/USD

  • #35,441
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:24am Nov 9, 2011 7:24am
FYI:

Italian Bonds above 7.00%

What does that mean?

It means, Italy, even with ultra great governance, wont be able to pay it's debt.

What does this got to do with AUDUSD?

This is a very bad situation. Therefore, RISK is OFF the table. Rumor has it than ECB is FORCED to intervene by buying up some Italian Bonds. ECB was not supposed to do this, but if they dont intervene this way, there might not be an EU...
  • #35,442
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:28am Nov 9, 2011 7:28am
Shorting with TPs near parity, SLs 1.0310.
  • #35,443
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:33am Nov 9, 2011 7:33am
Quoting FX-Petra
Bought the dip @ 0300. Would like to move stop to 0350 if we break 0400. Stop now at BE. I am not very good at scalping, but this range is killing me!

Regards,
0300 stopped out @ 0350 on the way back down. Buy order triggered overnight @ 0250. Also bought the potential double bottom @ 0212. We'll see what happens!

Regards,
  • #35,444
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:41am Nov 9, 2011 7:41am
wow massive fakeout there. thought for sure that support was destroyed.

stop hunts are going in both directions here
  • #35,445
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:43am Nov 9, 2011 7:43am
Greece to announce new Prime Minister circa 10AM EST.

Could be a rally if market likes this guy.

Could be a sell off if market dont like him.
  • #35,446
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:46am Nov 9, 2011 7:46am
sell limit at 25 to parity
  • #35,447
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:09am Nov 9, 2011 8:09am
Quoting BurgerKing
FYI:

Italian Bonds above 7.00%

What does that mean?

It means, Italy, even with ultra great governance, wont be able to pay it's debt.

What does this got to do with AUDUSD?

This is a very bad situation. Therefore, RISK is OFF the table. Rumor has it than ECB is FORCED to intervene by buying up some Italian Bonds. ECB was not supposed to do this, but if they dont intervene this way, there might not be an EU...
Greece took 3 months to get Bonds yield from 5 to 7%. Italy took 8 days to raise the yield this high.

This is Pandora's Box for Europe.
Cramer is yelling that someone has to do a Churchill and take control "today".

Last time I saw him like this, was back before Lehman Brothers crashed.
  • #35,448
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:11am Nov 9, 2011 8:11am
Quoting BurgerKing
Greece took 3 months to get Bonds yield from 5 to 7%. Italy took 8 days to raise the yield this high.

This is Pandora's Box for Europe.
Cramer is yelling that someone has to do a Churchill and take control "today".

Last time I saw him like this, was back before Lehman Brothers crashed.
Just in simple language, does higher yield means lower price??? so higher Italian bond yield means cheaper Euro currnecy ?
  • #35,449
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:18am Nov 9, 2011 8:18am
Quoting Yuchen
Just in simple language, does higher yield means lower price??? so higher Italian bond yield means cheaper Euro currnecy ?
something aint right.......market is expecting something big. If something comes out of this to resolve this issue...expect some large upside. IF NOT, I think we are heading sub par.

Market is clearly telling the euro nations to get there $hit together. TODAY
  • #35,450
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:28am Nov 9, 2011 8:28am
Quoting Yuchen
Just in simple language, does higher yield means lower price??? so higher Italian bond yield means cheaper Euro currnecy ?
Higher Yield means Government will pay more for borrowed money. Sounds good for the Lenders right?

However, higher Yield also implies higher risk the borrower cant pay.
Therefore, Higher Yield bonds = Higher Risk = RUN AWAY!

Yield Rate and Borrower's Credit Rating are inversely proportional. The higher the yield, the less trust worthy is the borrower (example Greece). The lower the yield, the higher the borrower credit rating (example Germany).

Italy Bonds are getting to the point where Lenders starts running away. And the higher the yield, the more italy cant pay their debts. therefore, the market is very spooked with the huge italian debt exposure.
  • #35,451
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:32am Nov 9, 2011 8:32am
BTW. FXCM reported earlier that a huge US wealth funds dumped EUR and AUD earlier before/during the fall.
  • #35,452
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:42am Nov 9, 2011 8:42am
1.0200 restest

EURUSD at daily lows right now. but audusd is held back at 1.0200
  • #35,453
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:54am Nov 9, 2011 8:54am
now at 1.0190

break and its 1.0150s


went short @ 1.01965 (sl BE+1). hope this goes down below
Attached Image
  • #35,454
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:55am Nov 9, 2011 8:55am
Quoting BurgerKing
1.0200 restest

EURUSD at daily lows right now. but audusd is held back at 1.0200
i bit the bullet and dived in short. sure already missed most of the move but there should be more to come rest of the week/next week. i'd be asking too much if i expected it to retrace all the way to 1.03 at this point.

will add more on a break of 0120 or a retrace to 0250
  • #35,455
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:00am Nov 9, 2011 9:00am
Quoting taxe91
i bit the bullet and dived in short. sure already missed most of the move but there should be more to come rest of the week/next week. i'd be asking too much if i expected it to retrace all the way to 1.03 at this point
short @ what level?
  • #35,456
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:04am Nov 9, 2011 9:04am
sigh... looks like its going back above 1.02 and getting stopped out...

will leave it as is.. bag +1 or bag +150


edit: it made a mini spike and I bagged just a measly +0.2pips...
  • #35,457
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:14am Nov 9, 2011 9:14am
Quoting BurgerKing
short @ what level?
well i just got stopped out myself. but i was short at 1.019, jumped in the 2nd time we broke 1.02 (was very lucky that i didnt short the first time on that false break)

no more trades for me tonight, managed to limit the damage but im wrecking myself trying to trade on these smaller time frames this week.

even if it goes all the way down to 1.012 im just going to have to wait for a retrace at this stage, even if 1.025 is my best hope
  • #35,458
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:21am Nov 9, 2011 9:21am
Quoting taxe91
well i just got stopped out myself. but i was short at 1.019, jumped in the 2nd time we broke 1.02 (was very lucky that i didnt short the first time on that false break)

no more trades for me tonight, managed to limit the damage but im wrecking myself trying to trade on these smaller time frames this week.

even if it goes all the way down to 1.012 im just going to have to wait for a retrace at this stage, even if 1.025 is my best hope

fair enough...

trying to catch the price is getting us reckless
  • #35,459
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:39am Nov 9, 2011 9:39am
hindsight, I am cursing myself for having stopped out when we are dropping like this right now... sigh... last week I didnt set stops to protect profit and i ended with a big loss... now I have stops at be+1 and thats all I got: +1s
  • #35,460
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:41am Nov 9, 2011 9:41am
Quoting BurgerKing
hindsight, I am cursing myself for having stopped out when we are dropping like this right now... sigh... last week I didnt set stops to protect profit and i ended with a big loss... now I have stops at be+1 and thats all I got: +1s
That happens for me a lot of times too...
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