Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

bought AU @ 1.0303 with stop @ 1.0286
I am attaching a 9600t chart of AU ..

forktrader,

A question for you, "which holds greater significance, prior market structure or the a/r and median lines you draw?"

From the work on your charts and your entry with stop, it seems you would answer the later rather than the former.

Just something to think about, on my platforms you would have survived this trade, maybe, by three pips.

fwiw,

xt

xt: I base my trades more on frequency or A/R lines you can say ...
--------

About to close the trade for AU ...

ForkTrader...

I see your AU trade went very well just after your entry (peaked +68 so far; has fallen back some). You barely survived your tight S/L (1.2860) because the low went to 1.02909 on my feed. How did you happen to pick that S/L ? Cash stop, or ??

I like drawing pitchforks based on fairly obvious pivots. On my chart, the blue long-term PF has some nice resonance, and though in the previous day price had dipped below the M/L, you happened to catch a retouch of the M/L.

The short-term black PF shows a near perfect quartile-above-M/L touch.

Zooming in tight on an H1(!) chart, the black quartile is 1.02929. The blue M/L is 1.02885. Price happened to bounce exactly between these two targets at 1.02909.

On a Daily(!) chart (6-bars/week), the black fork is irrelevant. From this Daily perspective, the blue PF slope and intercepts are slightly different. The blue PF M/L target is 1.02916, so price dipped below it a mere 0.9 pip and bounced up.

Stated another way, if one was only looking at the blue fork, price came down just shy of the blue H1 target, but overshot the blue Daily target. The blue PF is enough by itself for *precision* trading. However, if one also considers the black quartile, it happens to have been confirmation at the same spot. As your previous 20M chart shows, there are a bunch of shorter term PFs one can draw, and many of them do provide precision targets. However, I still like having longer-term forks like the blue one. The confluence of both is my preference.

Good trades to you all...

my stop was just 2 pips below the 9600 tick bar that I bought AU off. Nothing special about it.

Very nice.

FX4

Hey Guys,

I just wanted to say hi to my fellow forkers. I discovered Tim Morge and the power of A/R lines, market structure and pitchforks recently. I'll put up a forex trading journal as soon as the moderators take the training wheels off. I currently watch all the major pairs except the Yen and look for setups intraday.

I am hoping to make a few friends that are serious about getting better and sharing their views of the market. Looking forward to it!

...

FWIW...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5105948

2hrs chart eur,gbp,aud. all of them have 3 drive to the top.

i dont see you improve anything in your drawing since the day i meet you at CURT's trading room.

Glad to see you stopping by Nguyennguyen Nice work by the way

fwiw,

Thanks for your vote of confidence.

Moving right along...

His english is not that good, so forgive him He means well. You are making great strides in your charting, trust me. I have seen your work on here a lot.

arent you big on market structure FT? like XT, i cant see it supporting your buy!

just a question, if i may

.

Nah...dude was trying to take a jab at Ol' Kapital here. It's all good though. He has a right to his opinion.

I'll be the first to admit that I often draw the forks in unconventional ways. Trust me when I say that it has been well worth the effort.

Well the setup that I had at the back of my mind was 240M AU chart... and needless to say S*** happens sometimes ... I try not to afford a stop more than 20 pips ... and preferably less.

ForkTrader,

Your AU M10 chart from Ensign is MISSING ~20 hours (or ~120 M10 bars) of data!! (Your 240min chart is also missing a few bars on Nov 4 at least, and perhaps elsewhere too??) If I used Ensign, this flaw would drive me nuts. You have to do some kind of refresh to get the missing data loaded.

(Your AU chart is spot-cash right? Even if it's futures it should have data for Friday Nov 4th I would expect.)

With missing that many M10 bars, if affects how close future PA interacts with the Pitchfork. See my first M10 chart. Your Long trade might have worked if the sliding parallel you drew had held but it didn't. Since the missing bars were not apparently between the 3 PF pivots, then the slope of the fork is correct. Sliding parallels would still be the right slope regardless of these particular missing bars.

FYI, notice the 2nd chart with the same Andrews fork but with both Mod.Schiff (Magenta; 50% price, 50% time between pt1-pt2) and the regular Schiff (Olive; 50% price between pt1-pt2, same time as pt1).

The regular Schiff has some very nice frequency. The M.Sch. is not bad too. Both seem better than the Andrews to me (which has some but less frequency to it).

It so happens that where you took your long trade was just after price bounced near-perfect downward from the Schiff UML, and the Mod.Schiff 1st-quartile-above-UML. Might have been cause for concern for the Long taken there, but the bottom was put in soon after at a break below the Andrews LML, but still above (shy of) the M.S. UML. Rose about 120 after the bottom.

I wasn't watching AU at the time. Because I was replicating your AU chart, I noticed the data problem. This analysis is all after-the-fact, but illustrates some benefit to watching not only the Andrews but the MS and Schiff variations (along with quartiles) as well.