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  • #1,321
  • Nov 3, 2011 6:49am Nov 3, 2011 6:49am
Quoting Dmessenger
my apology, i'm just a noob... but isn't it very bearish? just a queston.
No need for apologies we are all noobs as wea are all learning...

About the bearishness. Very long term i.e it is bearish however one of the systems I trade based on the daily chart flagged a buy. Add to that the fact that I am dollar bullish it was a compelling buy for me. Closed out close to the top of this up move as I was watching to see whether it would blow past 1.0220. It didnt so I closed out. I am still bullish though...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,322
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:57am Nov 4, 2011 3:57am
Quoting Olu
No need for apologies we are all noobs as wea are all learning...

About the bearishness. Very long term i.e it is bearish however one of the systems I trade based on the daily chart flagged a buy. Add to that the fact that I am dollar bullish it was a compelling buy for me. Closed out close to the top of this up move as I was watching to see whether it would blow past 1.0220. It didnt so I closed out. I am still bullish though...

Olu
Thanks for your reply, just want to know your thinking process...

cheers!
carlo
  • #1,323
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:01am Nov 4, 2011 9:01am
Are we going to break out? Third time lucky? I must say though there a lot of points to overcome on the chart to the left and it might mean that we will thrash around here for a while or need some bad news and then off we go...

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,324
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:24am Nov 4, 2011 9:24am
Quoting Olu
Are we going to break out? Third time lucky? I must say though there a lot of points to overcome on the chart to the left and it might mean that we will thrash around here for a while or need some bad news and then off we go...

Olu



Attached Image
  • #1,325
  • Nov 4, 2011 8:12pm Nov 4, 2011 8:12pm
Nice pic.

Cool way to end a week of patience

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,326
  • Nov 5, 2011 5:46pm Nov 5, 2011 5:46pm
Quoting Olu
Nice pic.

Cool way to end a week of patience

Olu



Sleepy pigs we are !!

Back on the radar 9/5'rs...Gbpcad.

Now into our 77th week in a channel.

Something is going to happen and soon I would suspect.

Still need to break and close above 1.6500 but if it does, we are going northbound.

Play the breakout and manage the trade with stops in a reasonable risk for your account.

Or, if you get the Olu pullback and retest 1.6471 then get in and manage with good risk stops.

Enclosed see monthly and weekly charts to help you with the bigger picture.



Good hunting,


golfer
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad weekly.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,327
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:06am Nov 7, 2011 2:06am
I have not been sleepy on this one. I check it out daily. It will breakout to the upside soon and I ll be there. usdcad is back up to the breakout area at the moment. Its employment figures were rubbish it will be classified weak - weaker than gbp. can you believe that?
Dont like to look of the stoch on the daily which might be pointing to another retracement. But that is why we are sitting higher and waiting for the market to come to us...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad-daily-07112011-0800uk.jpg Size: 98 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,328
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:12am Nov 7, 2011 2:12am
My goodness. What is the euro doing here? We should be lower. There are powers behing the scenes at work

Anyway I have uploaded the daily chart. We seem to be in a bearish retracement channel that is about to go. I am bearish

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-daily-07112011-0803uk.jpg Size: 59 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,329
  • Nov 7, 2011 2:29am Nov 7, 2011 2:29am
Hi Olu,

I have the same feel with you for Euro/Usd pair... have been shorting this pair since late last week... here's my exposures at the moment...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7 11.jpg Size: 114 KB


still managing positions... and if price will prove me wrong, then i will just cut down exposures...

regards,
carlo
  • #1,330
  • Nov 7, 2011 7:53am Nov 7, 2011 7:53am
Quoting Dmessenger
Hi Olu,

I have the same feel with you for Euro/Usd pair... have been shorting this pair since late last week... here's my exposures at the moment...

Attachment

still managing positions... and if price will prove me wrong, then i will just cut down exposures...

regards,
carlo
Thanks for your post. I am very bearish the euro but I feel technical trading is at a disadvantage at the moment. This market is being manipulated, I think and a swift profitable descent is being manipulated to become a combination of a casual congestion and a non impulsive, yet sure descent. as you know these casual congestions only chew away at your trading account equity. not to talk of the emotional drag - up 50 pips one hour and down 50 the next.

This happened this very morning. At some point I thought 3720 was gone and we are off to 3630 only to look back to see that we went there briefly only to
run up 80 pips.

However if you are a long term trader you can put the stop above the recent high and sit it out...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,331
  • Nov 7, 2011 8:44am Nov 7, 2011 8:44am
I can 'safely' say we have a topside failure and we might probe to the downside now. Risk is back on the markets as the downdraught we say over night has all but gone. this stinks of manipulation

In any case as we are traders what can we do in such cases? We might need to go with the flow with small trade sizes waiting for when they cant manipulate anymore

Be warned though. this is no man's land. It is ECBLand, BOELand and FedLand

NB: Price is now below 1150... Real breakdown here
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,332
  • Nov 8, 2011 3:39am Nov 8, 2011 3:39am
i'm stuck in ranging action... still shorting my pair - let's see how long euro will stay...
  • #1,333
  • Nov 8, 2011 4:38am Nov 8, 2011 4:38am
We have been watching this one forever. We are now kissing the upper breakout barrier. will it or wont it. It is overbought though on the stoch so I am looking for the unwinding of the stoch for a bit. But when she goes we have the birth of a new trend.

the ideal is to enter on a retracement and use 1.6500 to add and just hold on...
Thats the ideal we are traders and realists so we might just go long on a close above 1.6500. than might be the only option available

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,334
  • Nov 9, 2011 6:52am Nov 9, 2011 6:52am
Trouble for the euro, that is

Find uploaded a chart of the weekly euro

We are sitting right on the 100sma as we speak (type)
Impulsive downmove today (elliott speak for determination of the pair to go down)
Weekly stochastic has turned down
bearish candle formation
break of last week's low

Not good for the euro at all. We are oversold on the daily at the moment and as we are sitting on support there may be attempts to rally but no matter what dance this pair will put on it is a long term sell

Watch our usdcad as well - close to breakout - again
Watch our gbpcad - same thing - again

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,335
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:24am Nov 9, 2011 7:24am
Check out the daily dax chart uploaded. A head and shoulder is marking out with targets of 5100. We are a bit oversold at the moment but sometimes that doesnt stop anything as markets can get more oversold if there is a fundamental reason.

Do your own d/d. Dont jump the gun though wait for it to comfirm. If the ECB reduces interest rates by 0.25 or carry out some other action this could easily become a 500 point rally. So be careful

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,336
  • Nov 9, 2011 7:40am Nov 9, 2011 7:40am
4hr chart uploaded

Technically I think we are looking at a wonderful cup and handle pattern. A c&h is not one until we breakout.
As I type we have breakdown in the eurusd...Will it close with this breakdown? I am already short and I am watching just to make sure I not at the other end of some retracement or intervention

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad-4h-09112011-1336uk.JPG Size: 57 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,337
  • Nov 10, 2011 7:41am Nov 10, 2011 7:41am
We had a massive fall in the euro yesterday. so much that it not inconceivable that a retracement is due. As we speak price is retesting the H&S breakdown point. will if turn from here? No one knows but one thing we know is that this pair is bearish in a big way. The H&S is pointing to below 1.3000 area so no buying for me till the right shoulder is negated.

The usdcad has dived back into the established range thereby negating the breakout yesterday. It could just be building up for another go

your own d/d is required and advisable.

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,338
  • Nov 10, 2011 9:35am Nov 10, 2011 9:35am
Quoting Olu
We had a massive fall in the euro yesterday. so much that it not inconceivable that a retracement is due. As we speak price is retesting the H&S breakdown point. will if turn from here? No one knows but one thing we know is that this pair is bearish in a big way. The H&S is pointing to below 1.3000 area so no buying for me till the right shoulder is negated.

The usdcad has dived back into the established range thereby negating the breakout yesterday. It could just be building up for another go

your own d/d is required and advisable.

Olu...
The euro has been repelled from the neckline. Price is now at 1.3559. Volatility is the name of the game...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,339
  • Nov 13, 2011 5:52pm Nov 13, 2011 5:52pm
Some fundamental news. Italy's prime minister has resignes and the austerity package for the country has been passed into law. This item of news is good for risk hence bad for the us$. The stock markets opened up higher and the us$ is weakening as a result of that i.e no need for safe haven us$

as for the euro we saw last week a head and shoulder pattern come into play targetting the low 1.30xx area. But we had the mother of all turnaround on friday and we are now attacking the right shoulder of the pattern. A break of this pattern will render the pattern invalid - even after it has been confirmed by the break of the neckline. Tonight we have risen to 1.3810 and have since fallen back to 1.3785.

The dollar index must hold 7650 for the bullishness to remain. A break of this area means much lower values and call its bullishness into question.

No need to just jump into the markets if you are not already in. Wait for markets to break support or punch throught resistance.

Two charts are uploaded
Dollar index (daily)
EurUsd (daily)

Olu
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Click to Enlarge Name: dollarindex-daily-13112011-2328uk.jpg Size: 58 KB
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,340
  • Nov 14, 2011 7:42am Nov 14, 2011 7:42am
My last post showed a weak us$ to start the weak and it was imperative that 7650 held for us$ bullishness to continue. We have held and the us$, despite a new government in italy, despite signing in the austere measures, despite all euro bullish news has rallied hard. In fact this rally looks impulsive so take your pick. Look for a good entry after a bit of a pullback.... I would have loved price to touch the line before rallying so as to confirm a bounce. But hey, the market is not here to serve me. It is doing its dance and we are to profit from it.

long usdsgd, long usdcad,
Short eurusd, short gbpusd, short nzdusd, short audusd

Whatever you do long dollar is the long term way to go

Exuberance apart, you need to do your own d/d. Its your own trading account.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollarindex-daily-14112011-1333uk.JPG Size: 55 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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