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My EUR/USD Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 10:15am Nov 3, 2011 9:40am | Edited 10:15am
Yes, this is My analysis in EUR/USD pair, i just only trade this pair,
the reason why i only keep an eye on this pair is

  1. EUR/USD have the lowest spread of all

  1. I found my self more focus when monitoring just one pair and this make me free from stress

  1. most of pair often have the same direction; for example when EUR/USD moving up, GBP/USD is moving up too. and the same with AUD/USD and the other major pairs associated with USD, when EUR/USD moving up, USD/CHF is moving down


In this thread I will post my analysis, any entry probabilities and the price next move. I will keep my trade record here.
Please note that all my analysis is in H1 timeframe.

Any comment, criticisms and suggestions is very welcome.

Best regards,
Jin Shan

- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #2
  • Nov 3, 2011 9:46am Nov 3, 2011 9:46am
Yesterday I have make a simple analysis, The target is about 1.3787-1.3825, (this chart in H1 timeframe)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro1.jpg Size: 52 KB


looks like today its still playing around this level, this level has become a strong resistance, if the price is able to break this level, it will lead to 1.38803-1.3947,
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #3
  • Edited 10:22am Nov 3, 2011 10:06am | Edited 10:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 56 KB


Price is always making a higher low in 1,2,3, and retrace in 4 then up with a big momentum, need a bigger momentum to break this resistance,
after break this resistance the next target is the supply level about 1.38803-1.3947 and I will open sell position at this level
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #4
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:22pm Nov 3, 2011 11:22pm
Today price still hanging at the resistance level, need more momentum to push it up,

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 66 KB


again I will open sell position at supply level about 1.38803-1.3947
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #5
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:44am Nov 4, 2011 4:44am
looks like price is react at the resistance. after a long hours hanging at this level target to supply level


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.jpg Size: 51 KB
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #6
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:46am Nov 4, 2011 11:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 62 KB
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  • #7
  • Nov 4, 2011 12:02pm Nov 4, 2011 12:02pm
analysis for monday trade:
there has been a strong resistance, monday price will retest the resistance again, if cannot break this level, price will colapse to 1.3591-1.36234

My entry possibility is short at 1.39015-1.3947 and long at 1.3591-1.36234

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 57 KB
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #8
  • Edited 8:35pm Nov 6, 2011 8:24pm | Edited 8:35pm
Interesting. I am enjoying this very much. Keep up the great work

It's 11-6-11 currently. What is your analysis going into the current week? Do you look at fundamentals or just technical analysis?

I will say that I suspected a "Double Top" 2-3 weeks ago and got my rear handed to me due to the huge "run up" / Rally the EUR had these past 2 weeks.

I will be interested to see your opinions on the EUR/USD for this current week

Good luck and happy trading....
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #9
  • Nov 7, 2011 12:02am Nov 7, 2011 12:02am
Quoting JeremyMoore
Interesting. I am enjoying this very much. Keep up the great work
Thanks for come in to my thread Jeremy, I'm glad that you enjoy my thread

Quoting JeremyMoore
It's 11-6-11 currently. What is your analysis going into the current week?
During this current week, i have a downtrend bias in my mind, price may retrace and then keep the downmove.

Quoting JeremyMoore
Do you look at fundamentals or just technical analysis?
I'm just look at technical analysis, i am just lazy to read the fundamental news.

Trade well,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #10
  • Edited 7:13am Nov 7, 2011 5:34am | Edited 7:13am
Long euro at trendline


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 69 KB
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  • #11
  • Nov 7, 2011 11:10am Nov 7, 2011 11:10am
price is making a wedge,this pattern will established tomorrow
If break the up trendline then the price will collapse, to 1.3594-1.3556
If break the down trendline , price will fly to 1.3914-1.3946

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 70 KB
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #12
  • Edited 11:49am Nov 8, 2011 3:44am | Edited 11:49am
At last price react, after a long hours of consolidation,
price wish to break the upper wedge, as seen at the previous bar momentum up

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 83 KB
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  • #13
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:48am Nov 8, 2011 11:48am
Price false break previous upper wedge.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11.jpg Size: 82 KB



now making a new form of wedge.
wait for tomorrow price action.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 73 KB
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #14
  • Nov 8, 2011 11:15pm Nov 8, 2011 11:15pm
I did a probability study and came up with some interesting analysis and a pretty good prediction of price action during the London and possibly New York sessions.

I will be waiting to see what price action has in store when London comes online. What are your thoughts??

Jeremy

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.jpg Size: 240 KB
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #15
  • Edited 12:35am Nov 9, 2011 12:04am | Edited 12:35am
Quoting JeremyMoore
I did a probability study and came up with some interesting analysis and a pretty good prediction of price action during the London and possibly New York sessions.

I will be waiting to see what price action has in store when London comes online. What are your thoughts??

Jeremy

Attachment
Nice setups Jeremy
From your charts, it is very clear that price wanna break through this upper wedge, seen from price is above moving average and your clarity indicator show bullish bias.

In my opinions, today Price may break the upper wedge. Looking from yesterday charts, price always try to break the upperwedge, but lack of demand.

I'm very glad with your analysis.
keep posting jeremy

Happy trading
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #16
  • Nov 9, 2011 8:37am Nov 9, 2011 8:37am
Price was poised to break the upper wedge. However that did not happen. Price broke the support floor with a vengeance.

Holy cow price fell very sharply..
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #17
  • Nov 9, 2011 9:32am Nov 9, 2011 9:32am
Quoting JeremyMoore
Price was poised to break the upper wedge. However that did not happen. Price broke the support floor with a vengeance.

Holy cow price fell very sharply..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.jpg Size: 72 KB



Price attempts to break the upper wedge, as seen at > price keep hanging at the upper wedge level, but fail to break.
Then price collapse and break the lower wedge in one hit.
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #18
  • Nov 10, 2011 12:01am Nov 10, 2011 12:01am
Price aiming to resistance level, will short at that level


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 73 KB
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #19
  • Nov 10, 2011 4:06pm Nov 10, 2011 4:06pm
Mr. Du Jin Shan

I was doing some study and I came to a few interesting possibilities. Let me know if we are thinking the same thing. I do believe we have more downward movement. The question remains as to when we will see that downward momentum kick back in....

In this chart I have listed 3 possible scenarios. I will be watching close to see which one is most likely to play out. What are your thoughts??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD01.jpg Size: 236 KB
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #20
  • Nov 10, 2011 10:05pm Nov 10, 2011 10:05pm
Quoting JeremyMoore
Mr. Du Jin Shan

I was doing some study and I came to a few interesting possibilities. Let me know if we are thinking the same thing. I do believe we have more downward movement. The question remains as to when we will see that downward momentum kick back in....

In this chart I have listed 3 possible scenarios. I will be watching close to see which one is most likely to play out. What are your thoughts??

Attachment
Nice setups Jeremy.

I still have a downtrend bias in mind. because the lower wedge is already break by the price previous day.
Looks like we have the same thoughts
Me too, I seek for a short position at the resistance level exactly the previous lower wedge.

Best Regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
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