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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #104,061
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:25am Nov 6, 2011 11:25am
Quoting supremeChaos
IMHO, it would be beneficial for u to study this thread's material.
Don't worry. I am reading the thread, and have been for a while now. As well as watching the material in the guest area on the J16 website.
  • #104,062
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:18pm Nov 6, 2011 12:18pm
Quoting VielGeld
Hi! I'm VielGeld and I am a market loser. I've been following this thread for a week or two now and have been impressed with the amount of available info. I wish to bring my trading to a profitable level with the fine gents of this forum. Nice to meet'cha!

That said, I have a Q: the recommended time frame in this thread is daily bars. However, I have myself to be more of a very low time-frame trader. Think in the order of 30s to 5m charts at most. I am not, however, a scalper; I simply prefer playing momentum trend following, just in a very short...
Hey Viel

Welcome to the thread

We worry about most folks starting out on these lower timeframes. The decision making process has to be fast, the probability of emotions taking over, and all the pitfalls of them is what causes a LOT of traders to lose. The reason James and us recommend to start with the higher is to build a proper foundation. I always say this to people who like the lower timeframes. If you want to trade them of course you can(it's everyones right to go about it the way you wish) but you should still demo and put it through the same process. Now if you have been a losing trader though on the lower timeframes, wouldn't it make sense to try what others may suggest as a strong route to take(that being daily/weekly till you can get profitable there).

But to answer your question we treat the lower timeframes the SAME as the larger timeframes. Again though faster decision making, more bars to watch, easier to make mistakes and compound those mistakes. I am a big big believer in getting those struggling to move to the daily/weekly and get REAL picky. I started on those low timeframes too so believe me if I could do it over it would be what is outlined in post 1

again welcome to the thread
Mike
  • #104,063
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:24pm Nov 6, 2011 12:24pm
Quoting Hiten123
1. I am having problems deciding my target profit. How can I predict by how much the market will move in my favor?

2. There are so many support and resistance lines on each chart. With all those horizontal lines, how do you know which ones are worth taking notice off. Usually I just plot as many lines as I see, and the chart ends up looking very messy.

3. With fib levels, how do I find the swing high and low? Do I zoom right out and then plot it or do I just plot it within a zoomed graph?

4. And finally, is my strategy actually any good?...
Hey man . You reminded me of myself several years ago I had a plan just like yours hehe It was a nice time of my life. Only difference is that you have found something good to read and some very kind people here... very earlier than me !

Some thoughts about your questions :
First , it's good that you have a plan and a strategy . And most of all - strong will . This ingredient is the most important in anything you want to accomplish in life .
Truth is that your strategy and plan is about to change in time . Multiple times ! With experience you will change this and that to a point where everything is different . So don't rush it ! It takes time and experience ... like everything else !
You are blessed to have all these people here , who are willing to help and they know things !
  • #104,064
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:28pm Nov 6, 2011 12:28pm
Hey Hiten

Firstly welcome as well. I put my opinions and comments below in bold. Please realize anything I say it's coming from a meaningful place to help but it is my opinion.


Quote
I'm a 25 year old guy, still living at home so I have no bills or rent to pay. I saved up about £7000 and left my job so I could become a full time forex trader. A little crazy according to some, but I want to become a full time trader so badly. I studied forex for months and then opened a demo account. I demo traded without a clear strategy for 2 weeks, just to figure out how it all works. Then I made a strategy and have been trading with that strategy for a week.

This does worry me and I have to say it. The expectations most have coming to trading is to take a very small amount of money and become a full time trader. This is not a successful route for most. The pitftalls are endless and if you want me to go through them I would be more then happy to. You may already know them and formed your opinion and that is ok too. As I just said in my previous post everyone is going to do what they want at the end of the day. But because this thread draws so much attention from new traders we must must consistently remind you all that this is very serious business and that taking routes that a lot of us initially want is very very dangerous. Again please follow post 1 and the outline from Jim. It's very important. At the least the demo process into SMALL live is very important. I am a big believer that most peoples expectations and what trading can be used for is skewed.
Quote
I trade the hourly charts, even though a lot of people recommend I trade daily and weekly. I just do not have the patience required to trade daily charts, and don't think I could do it at this stage.

This could be a big issue because patience is not determined by timeframe but by ones method. If one can't be patient to learn on demo on the higher timeframes most likely(again there is no one case for everything) that person will fail on the lower timeframes b/c those characteristics will come out faster and uglier on the quicker timeframes. Again this is an expansion of my previous post as well.

Quote
My plan is to continue demo trading, and if I can consistently make a small profit each week (say £50), consistently, then I will go live after 3 months with maybe a £1000 or £1500 account. My goal is not to become a millionaire quickly, but to just make a small profit consistently to give me confidence, but of course, in a few years I do want to be making enough money to live off comfortably.

I am VERY happy to hear you demo trading. This is the greatest thing you could be doing and you will learn a great deal and I guarantee your mindset and thought process will be severely different over the coming months and years. So this is why we demo, to learn. So I applaud you and others for doing that.
Quote

My questions are:

1. I am having problems deciding my target profit. How can I predict by how much the market will move in my favor?

Here is a post on how I do exits from a general standpoint. Each situation is different for me and I evaluate it accordingly. Go through the thread and you will find thousands of examples to begin to formulate what is comfortable for you.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post2853922

Quote
2. There are so many support and resistance lines on each chart. With all those horizontal lines, how do you know which ones are worth taking notice off. Usually I just plot as many lines as I see, and the chart ends up looking very messy.

Each concept has degrees. That is you have minor to major(and everything in between) s/r lines. A good way to start is looking to trade off major areas, and use the minor areas for managment

Quote
3. With fib levels, how do I find the swing high and low? Do I zoom right out and then plot it or do I just plot it within a zoomed graph?

It doesn't really matter your zoom, it matters that you use swing points. Again same as above. You have minor to major swing points. Stick to the major ones that area easy to spot.

Quote
4. And finally, is my strategy actually any good?

It's a good starting point, but there is no way to definitively say if it is or isn't. This is where trial and error and your demoing will be so important. Again I will guarantee you will be making changes over the coming months/years and this is VERY normal and a good thing.

Hope this helps in some way
Mike
  • #104,065
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:28pm Nov 6, 2011 12:28pm
Hello everyone

Which direction to go now Snap g / a
Last week the pair shuffles and I do not know whether he would continue up or check himself down again 1.500

Thank you
[I apologize for the bad English, I do not speak English and that's what google "translate it for me]
  • #104,066
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:39pm Nov 6, 2011 12:39pm
Been spending some time today watching the videos again over on the J16 site in the guest section. Trying to refocus my attention on the daily and weekly setups while I'm still in the J16 training phase.

Taken a number of screen shots tonight of the daily charts. I won't post them all up here as the ones that caught my eye are all pretty similar in terms of being range bound, or moving sideways. And as James stated in the video I watched earlier, "being able to consistanly trade in a sideways market at breakeven or better is the key to being successful" (I have paraphrased there. Not quoted verbatim)

What I have done is essentially drawn a box around the consolidation area on the charts, and I'm going to specifiaclly wait for price to reach the highs or lows of those boxes, and wait for a PA confirmation for an entry. Looking also for any fib confluences around those areas. Touches of ema's are also great, along with RN's.

Trying to get back to J16 basics and keep it simple.

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If you haven't watched it yet, here's the link to the video I mentioned on the J16 guest area for us learners http://www.james16group.us/Guests/video/eurcadpb.wmv
  • #104,067
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:43pm Nov 6, 2011 12:43pm
Quoting PinWing
Thank you, really appreciate it!

So, if you have a good location, say a pinbar on a swing high (or low), if pinbar close is above the open (or pinbar close is below the open), this is a warning to avoid the trade?

Thank you for the tip

In the end I didnt took this demo trade. I made a pending order, but then i thought about it and cancelled. It was a trade I was going to have to be on the computer all the time, It just didnt felt right to just pull the trigger and go to bed hoping my target got hit. And watching what happened next, there was...
Hey there Hector.

I don't count the closes as an absolute reason not to enter, but I place a large amount of weight on the them. It is just something that I keep in mind when I trade.

One of my most important philosophies is that I am not looking for trades, but instead I am looking for reasons not to take the trade. If I can come up with reasons that it is not ideal then I stay out. This is a business that is all about taking only the best. We don't need to take anything less. Time x quality trades = profitability. We just have to learn what quality trades are. I have been doing this for a few years and I admit that I am still on the path of defining "quality trades". Trading is more of a game of finese than an exact science. One of those items that I use is taking into account not just the bar, but how the formation looks. This includes the closes. All of this just comes down to the filters that I have in place for my definitions of a quality trade. As time goes by and you gain experience you will begin to decide what aspects you want to place weight on. This is all it comes down to. Time, practice and patience. Honestly, I wouldn't even place a time frame for profitability in your mind. Just accept that every day you are working on achieving defining and recognizing only the best trades (profitability) and it will come in due time. In the meantime we will be happy to help anywhere we can.

Ryan
  • #104,068
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:45pm Nov 6, 2011 12:45pm
Hey Mike ,
did you see the weekly pin bars on the yen pairs (EURJPY , CADJPY , CHFJPY) ? I am going to take one or two of them
  • #104,069
  • Nov 6, 2011 12:52pm Nov 6, 2011 12:52pm
Quoting Rust
Hey Mike ,
did you see the weekly pin bars on the yen pairs (EURJPY , CADJPY , CHFJPY) ? I am going to take one or two of them
Hey Rust

These are passes for me personally. Here is what I wrote to someone in the PF


These are all easy passes for me. Price is more near a swing low(where we want to see these at strong swing highs). Also I don't like the weak close(which to me is the fact it barely closed within the previous bar, I like to see a strong close usually under the open personally). Since these bars don't have good space(see space vs traffic video) this means your FTA is going to be very close so be careful. That for me is the 105 which is good you identified that, but in general that doesn't mean exactly the 105 too


Best
Mike
  • #104,070
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:06pm Nov 6, 2011 1:06pm
Thanks bud !
Yes, 105.000 is very close and taken into consideration . I share and respect your thoughts most of all , but ... I don't know ... somehow I like 'em

One over-simplified chart
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  • #104,071
  • Nov 6, 2011 1:49pm Nov 6, 2011 1:49pm
Quoting VielGeld
Hi! I'm VielGeld and I am a market loser. I've been following this thread for a week or two now and have been impressed with the amount of available info. I wish to bring my trading to a profitable level with the fine gents of this forum. Nice to meet'cha!

That said, I have a Q: the recommended time frame in this thread is daily bars. However, I have myself to be more of a very low time-frame trader. Think in the order of 30s to 5m charts at most. I am not, however, a scalper; I simply prefer playing momentum trend following, just in a very short...
I am not aware of anyone using this on the very very low TF right off the top of my head. The daily/weekly start is one of the core tenants of the J16 method. Feel free to do what you want to do, but the best question to me would be this:

You have not been profitable yet. What are you willing to change to get there? Have you ever considered that your mindset and desire on what/how to trade is the issue?

Ryan
  • #104,072
  • Edited 2:25pm Nov 6, 2011 1:55pm | Edited 2:25pm
Quoting Hiten123
Hello everyone, I just joined this forum and this is my first post. First of all I just want to thank James16 and all the others who have made this thread so educational and friendly for forex newbies like myself. I've learned a bunch of things here already and I'm not even close to getting through this whole thread.

I do have another motive for writing in this thread however, and that is to ask a few questions, hopefully some of you may be able to answer. First of all, some background about myself.

I'm a 25 year old guy, still living at home...
Your plan could hold merit. This is about TIME AND PRACTICE though. You need to forward test in demo. Everything that you ask will become clear in due time after practicing, but be aware that your expectations at the moment seem very very high. This can be done, but you are not following the standard protocol for beginners on here. Oftentimes what you speak of (a personal plan) is how we all started. Then we blew up demo, then a small account, and then we began to realize that maybe the creators of this gem of a thread knew a bit more than we gave them credit for. I wish you the best and hope your system will work for you. Post #1 contains the most sure fire way to succeed that has been discovered so far though. It just requires that you admit this will take longer than your original expecations.

Ryan
  • #104,073
  • Nov 6, 2011 2:19pm Nov 6, 2011 2:19pm
Thank you Rust, mbqb11 and gunggriffin for your replies. I appreciate your honesty. Going back to the first post in this thread, when I first read it I must admit it was not what I wanted to hear. However, looking back at the list, I'm going to be following almost all of the rules except only one (trading hourly timeframes instead of daily or weekly). I'm afraid that if this is a mistake, it's one I'm gonna have to learn the hard way being the stubborn guy I am. I just hope I turn out to be the exception. I'm not even gonna think about going live unless I'm consistently making profits for the next 3 month on demo.

mbqb11, your reply on horizontal lines and fib retracements helps me somewhat. Thanks for that. I'm gonna plot my horizontal lines now, ready for the trading week.

Sometimes I do wonder if I've made the right choice, but I have to make this work now.
  • #104,074
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:04pm Nov 6, 2011 3:04pm
Quoting stevefx
Ultimately I don't think you made a bad trade, in the larger technical sense. I mean you have the signs and the setup, then you have your confirmation point. You got the first part right, but the second part wrong. The task is to try to isolate the point where resistance/supply is coming from, and find its break point to confirm the move. That's not always easy or obvious.

In this case I would want to enter long over 6075 and go for 6175, for best fit. 6200 is a real possibility if 75 breaks though.

For now, there is resistance in place,...
Many thanks for your input stevefx, I guess this is the reason why its safer to enter at break plus some buffer so that you dont get cought in the immediate resistance.
Trading is a test match not a Twenty20.
  • #104,075
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:14pm Nov 6, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting Hiten123
Thank you Rust, mbqb11 and gunggriffin for your replies. I appreciate your honesty. Going back to the first post in this thread, when I first read it I must admit it was not what I wanted to hear. However, looking back at the list, I'm going to be following almost all of the rules except only one (trading hourly timeframes instead of daily or weekly). I'm afraid that if this is a mistake, it's one I'm gonna have to learn the hard way being the stubborn guy I am. I just hope I turn out to be the exception. I'm not even gonna think about going live...
Hiten, keep in mind that as you go smaller on tf, spread becomes an importance aspect and also the amount of time you will be able to give on each pair.
Why not trade the 4 hour tf at the least and perhaps add more pairs to your watchlist. Also, dont limit yourself to forex, have a look at indices, shares etc...
Trading is a test match not a Twenty20.
  • #104,076
  • Nov 6, 2011 3:50pm Nov 6, 2011 3:50pm
Quoting picon1
Been spending some time today watching the videos again over on the J16 site in the guest section. Trying to refocus my attention on the daily and weekly setups while I'm still in the J16 training phase.

Taken a number of screen shots tonight of the daily charts. I won't post them all up here as the ones that caught my eye are all pretty similar in terms of being range bound, or moving sideways. And as James stated in the video I watched earlier, "being able to consistanly trade in a sideways market at breakeven or better is the key to being successful"...
Not saying this isn't worth playing while we wait for the Big Break but this a Weekly Scr. Sht.
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Short back to 1.59xx might be worthwhile
BUT...
Watch for a Break.

B
  • #104,077
  • Nov 6, 2011 8:15pm Nov 6, 2011 8:15pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Hiten

Firstly welcome as well. I put my opinions and comments below in bold. Please realize anything I say it's coming from a meaningful place to help but it is my opinion.




This does worry me and I have to say it. The expectations most have coming to trading is to take a very small amount of money and become a full time trader. This is not a successful route for most. The pitftalls are endless and if you want me to go through them I would be more then happy to. You may already know them and formed your opinion and that is...
You are dude Mike ..nice post.
  • #104,078
  • Nov 6, 2011 9:45pm Nov 6, 2011 9:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Viel

Welcome to the thread

[snip]

But to answer your question we treat the lower timeframes the SAME as the larger timeframes. Again though faster decision making, more bars to watch, easier to make mistakes and compound those mistakes. I am a big big believer in getting those struggling to move to the daily/weekly and get REAL picky. I started on those low timeframes too so believe me if I could do it over it would be what is outlined in post 1

again welcome to the thread
Mike
Thanks for the reply!

I should clarify my previous post a bit: I actually started out on the higher time frames because I could never see myself being a scalper or somesuch since you're only going for small profits. Turns out it's what I like best, lol. I've tried position trading before and find it much more dangerous to my personality than scalping: if I'm not on the edge, I lose focus and lose track of the trend.

Trading on a short time frame is actually not that fast, imo, though some moves can happen very quickly (the underlying is also important... the Nasdaq moves real fast, but currencies less so). But it's really all about synthesizing the overall current volatility and fixing your S/R and stop levels accordingly.

And of course, I'm demo'ing this stuff. I used to be an unbeliever of the demo, but big losses playing with options told me otherwise...

Anyway, thanks for the answer, it's what I needed to know!

Quoting gungriffin
I am not aware of anyone using this on the very very low TF right off the top of my head. The daily/weekly start is one of the core tenants of the J16 method. Feel free to do what you want to do, but the best question to me would be this:

You have not been profitable yet. What are you willing to change to get there? Have you ever considered that your mindset and desire on what/how to trade is the issue?

Ryan
I see. I suspected the J16 method might not be for me, but I'll still be hanging around to learn up on it since it's can't hurt. There's also a good bit of good info in here anyway.

I'll be demo'ing Forex until I get plenty of experience and screen time. That's really all there is to it for now.

I'm willing to change anything and everything about my strategy if something doesn't work. If it turns out I suck at low time frames, then that's that and I'll move up the charts so to speak.
  • #104,079
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:36pm Nov 6, 2011 11:36pm
Quoting jarroo
I like the HCR level(s) at this consolidation area and that the 150 ema aligns with it. It sure worked out great on the initial PBT&CA.

Good chance it could work out again . .
No surprise here . .nice bounce on Friday . .

maybe we'll get another bounce . .or PA or PBT&CBelow . .I like the level.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #104,080
  • Nov 6, 2011 11:40pm Nov 6, 2011 11:40pm
Quoting jarroo
This is awesome, T . . . . .

I would only disagree with you and say that it is much inline with J16's methodology. We're dealing with S/R levels and that is where our PA formations confirms or valids our levels. What better way to show the transition of S/R then with PA ..

Also on your chart (Gold) we have a HCR level that is aligned with that previous LCS level(s) . .gave even more support to that 15 min PB.

So let's see how Price reacts since PBT&CA at these levels on the Daily . . if Price retraces to them.

. .speaking of a...
The same with Gold . .nice bounce . .no surprise . .
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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