Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

It's not so much about the arrows as it is about active S/R levels. That blue arrow does not have an active support level under it. The active level(s) are actually the blue and red resistance lines above, so my friend you went countertrend on that one.

When price moves away from resistance I will generally ignore the blue arrows and only evaluate the red arrows. Of course, it's vis versa for price moving away from support (ignore the red arrows). That way I know that I have the wind at my back like a good sailor.

none of my business, but if i may, wont it just be easier to just use naked eyes for determining support and resistance? use series of higher highs and lower lows for trend determination? and if you like, for trend determination, throw in moving averages?

Keeping it simple, sometimes work.

Yup, for a long time I did use the Mark Two Eyeball Indicator and drew the lines by hand (you know, those 10,000 hours ). Sometimes still do but getting lazy as of late and let the red/blue indie do most of the work now. Horizontal S/R (which is what I prefer because it does pretty much delineate those higher highs/lower lows, etc.), sloping S/R (angled trendlines), dynamic S/R (moving averages) pretty much all have the same purpose, so it comes down to personal preference. Just looking for what gives me the greatest clarity of price action within the charting landscape.

I figure that identifying S/R and then using a couple of simple arrows as alerts (saves me having to be constantly glued to the screen) and then rinse and repeat is about as simple as it gets. As far as trend goes, I consider that it is only relevent to the current wave (price moving away from a currently actve S/R level) and as we all know can change on a dime - no guarentees in this game.

I tend to give more weight to red S/R levels that are in place than blue levels for obvious reasons as can be seen in the chart. Hence I try to always have the top and bottom ones visible on the chart when I'm doing business at the hard right edge.

O.K. no more preachin' from me, just tradin' and fillin' my vault ...

Rinse and repeat.

The trader's dilema - exhaustion - is setting in so I'm considering TP2 in the bag and remaining profit stops adjusted accordingly. Done for the session - got my share of the loot.

Classic.........

HOLLA

my respect deepens....TP4 of 1.3826 breached. Good work, indeed.

Got luv for Draghi already.

Trichet was to stubborn.

Small short @ 1.3783, took some profit @ 1.3725. S/L @ +2.

European close should be a wild one.

EDIT: S/L hit.....jumpy market, wil wait until the close to see if a trend develops.

HOLLA

Long @ 1.3735, took profit @ 1.3786

S/L for lone solider @ 1.3737.

EDIT: S/L hit call it a day, wait for NFP tomorrow.

HOLLA

Morning all. I wasn't around for this one, but, it was a nice rejection off resistance levels - hope somebody here got some.

There's still hope left in the world .

Rinse and repeat. Gotta luv it.

Once this trade completes that will be it for my trading for a while. Busy packing bags, my main squeeze and I are going to take an extended vacation before winter sets in up here so will see you all when we're a bit older (and wiser ) and well rested. Happy pipin'.

yeah, stuff are going to hell:

http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/20...n-about-greece

another one:
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...eaker?page=0,1

and another:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/201...eurodammerung/

........I took this one earlier and didn't make it to TP4 but I'm happy with it, should have taken the second but no arrow no trade for me, rules are rules......

a chilling, concise, easy-to-understand Q and A about the greek situation:

Well, them's the breaks.

But it puts Greece into a death spiral. They can't pay their debts, so they cut back, which hurts their economy, which makes them even broker, so they cut back some more, rinse and repeat. There's virtually no hope that they'll recover anytime in the near future. It's just endless pain. What they need is total debt forgiveness and lots of aid going forward.


That doesn't sound like a very attractive option for the rest of Europe.

No, it's not.


So maybe they should just let Greece default and wash their hands of them.

Here's the thing, though: Greek debt is largely held by German banks that made the loans. [See update below.] If Greece has been irresponsible, so were the German banks that happily loaned out the money. So if Greece defaults, the banks go kablooey. But they're too big to fail, which means the German government would be forced to bail them out. And guess where the bailout money comes from? Tax dollars.
This means that German taxpayers have a bleak choice. They can shovel lots of money to Greece to keep them from defaulting, or they can refuse, and then shovel lots of money into German banks to keep them from collapsing. Either way, German taxpayers are going to foot the bill. They just haven't quite accepted this in their gut yet, and it's hard to blame them. They're pretty badly screwed no matter what.


Hmmm. Given that choice, they might decide they'd rather give their money to German banks than to Greek civil servants. What happens then?

Greece defaults. And that almost certainly means that Greece exits the euro.


Why?

It's the growth thing again. If Greece defaults, nobody will loan them any money. That means huge cutbacks, which means the economy will tank, which means even more cutbacks, etc. The traditional way out of this spiral is a massive devaluation of your currency. But Greece doesn't have a currency. It has the euro.
So if they want their economy to grow again, they have to (a) default, (b) exit the euro and readopt the drachma, and (c) devalue the drachma. This will cause massive amounts of pain, but it will also make Greek exports super cheap, which will eventually revive their economy.


So why not just let that happen?

It's just too catastrophic to consider. German banks, of course, would collapse and have to be bailed out. Ditto for banks in other countries that have lots of exposure to Greek debt. But that's not the worst of it. If Greece exits the euro, it will become terrifyingly obvious that other weak countries might exit too. Portugal, Spain, and Italy are the obvious candidates. Investors, spooked at the thought of their money being stuck in a country that might exit the euro and devalue all its bank deposits, would start huge runs on banks in those countries. The ECB would have to intervene and provide liquidity without limit. It would be a disaster.


So exiting the euro can't be allowed?

Right.


But if there's no exit, there's no devaluation, and Greece is pretty much screwed forever.

Right.


So who wins?

It depends on who blinks. Exiting the euro would be no picnic for Greece. But they could decide it's better than endless indenture and threaten exit in order to get a better deal from the Germans. Then the Germans have to decide whether to call their bluff.


Wow.

Exactly. Wow. Everyone knows that somebody's going to lose a huge pile of money over this. What's really happening right now is a very high-stakes negotiation to figure out just how the losses are going to be parceled out. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: It's actually a little unclear just which country has the biggest exposure to Greek debt. Maybe Germany, maybe France, maybe Switzerland. See here, here, and here. And the ECB owns a lot of Greek debt these days too. But the general principle doesn't change much. One way or another, Europe's big countries have to decide whether to bail out Greece or whether to let them default and then bail out their own banking systems

I can beleive it, now that I was learning something, the master leaves, Oh well he needs to spend all that money some where right? Have a good one my friend, I hope with this new strategy I will go on vacation with you next year and maybe take Turtle, 4d's and smikester, maybe we will take cesar if he show up before that.......oh and pipwanderer may also come, and then we can all be together happyly ever after........



.....perhaps we can even bring her, it all depends........