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Fail Better

  • #1,941
  • Nov 2, 2011 6:28pm Nov 2, 2011 6:28pm
Last support coupled with D1 bias... made 55 pips on this, should have stayed with it longer. Entered at 0.79125 and took profit at 0.78576.

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  • #1,942
  • Nov 2, 2011 10:17pm Nov 2, 2011 10:17pm
Hi guys, yesterday Tom posted in his tweeter that EU and AU formed D1 SFP, but NU did not. But I can't really see any SFP in my charts. Perhaps I did not get the concept of the SFP correctly. Can somebody point out the SFP that tom was talking about? Below is how my charts look like
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nu.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #1,943
  • Edited 11:25pm Nov 2, 2011 11:03pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting esbatu
Hi guys, yesterday Tom posted in his tweeter that EU and AU formed D1 SFP, but NU did not. But I can't really see any SFP in my charts. Perhaps I did not get the concept of the SFP correctly. Can somebody point out the SFP that tom was talking about? Below is how my charts look like
To explain, the SFP is when a candle breaks a previous High or Low area but then closes inside it. I have attached a paint image with my interpretation. It is not the best of circumstances but should highlight what a SFP could look like. I have also attached the EUR SFP for yesterday. You will notice the daily bar broke the immediate lows and then closed higher. The first move for the new day was up but has since come down. Please if I am incorrect in my interpretation please let me know. I have missed a few good ones over the course of this week on account of being snowed under at work.

Also there could be some differences in your feed to the actual start of a new day vs others feeds. Trade what you see is usually the best way of going. If you don't see it, don't trade it just because someone is indicating something.

Take care

RT
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SFP.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR SFP.JPG Size: 148 KB
  • #1,944
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:01am Nov 3, 2011 5:01am
Quoting Razor_trader
To explain, the SFP is when a candle breaks a previous High or Low area but then closes inside it. I have attached a paint image with my interpretation. It is not the best of circumstances but should highlight what a SFP could look like. I have also attached the EUR SFP for yesterday. You will notice the daily bar broke the immediate lows and then closed higher. The first move for the new day was up but has since come down. Please if I am incorrect in my interpretation please let me know. I have missed a few good ones over the course of this week...
Thank You. Very important to set out TPs!
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #1,945
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:52am Nov 3, 2011 5:52am
Thanks for a very interesting thread Tom. I've been through most of it now, some of the stuff I know and some of it a revelation.

Couldn't help noticing the SFP you describe, it's actually a 2 bar reversal first coined by Vic Sperandeo. Suri Duddella explains it very well in the Traders Journal on page 25

http://www.surinotes.com/Tradestatio..._TJDec2007.pdf
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #1,946
  • Nov 3, 2011 5:57am Nov 3, 2011 5:57am
Any ideas from anyone as to why this didn't bounce at 0.78682? It was also supported by D1 bias. Cheers.

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  • #1,947
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:03am Nov 3, 2011 7:03am
Quoting shanto_w
Any ideas from anyone as to why this didn't bounce at 0.78682? It was also supported by D1 bias. Cheers.

Attachment
News comes out in an hour, could be that. It could be an oversold period and profit taking for shorts is coming in. It could just be the usual, weak USD or a combination of all the above.

Zones don't always hold, especially if recently they were passed through a bit easier. You can see the reaction to the second area even though the market has visited it before. More action around that area previously can be an indicator for a double top situation.

RT
  • #1,948
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:06am Nov 3, 2011 7:06am
1)One general tip: Not a single level is 100% working. It is probability game remember.

2) Market gave you 50 pips but you did not take it. Your bad. At 0.79145 was very good level to take something off the table.

3) Fundamentaly NZD had very very bad news.
  • #1,949
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:35am Nov 3, 2011 7:35am
I just checked NZD/USD on the 5min tf and turns out there was a bounce at 0.78680, only of 20 pips though
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  • #1,950
  • Nov 3, 2011 7:41am Nov 3, 2011 7:41am
Quoting Salda

2) Market gave you 50 pips but you did not take it. Your bad. At 0.79145 was very good level to take something off the table.
Where exactly did the market give me 50 pips? Not sure what you mean by this.
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  • #1,951
  • Nov 3, 2011 9:00am Nov 3, 2011 9:00am
Another example of SFP on Eur/Usd H1, which would have worked nicely.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sfp.jpg Size: 133 KB
  • #1,952
  • Nov 3, 2011 11:58am Nov 3, 2011 11:58am
Quoting shanto_w
Any ideas from anyone as to why this didn't bounce at 0.78682? It was also supported by D1 bias. Cheers.

Attachment

Not the best idea to get short after a 4 day 430 pip down move. I made that mistake once.
  • #1,953
  • Nov 3, 2011 12:39pm Nov 3, 2011 12:39pm
Quoting shanto_w
Any ideas from anyone as to why this didn't bounce at 0.78682? It was also supported by D1 bias. Cheers.

Attachment
It just didn't work. Treat losers equally to winners.
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #1,954
  • Nov 3, 2011 2:33pm Nov 3, 2011 2:33pm
Quoting daft
Not the best idea to get short after a 4 day 430 pip down move. I made that mistake once.
Cheers for the advice, point taken.. I'm still new to this game.
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  • #1,955
  • Nov 4, 2011 9:22am Nov 4, 2011 9:22am
Quoting Razor_trader
To explain, the SFP is when a candle breaks a previous High or Low area but then closes inside it.
RT
Hi RT, thanks for the explanation. I think i get it now thanks to you. Cheers
  • #1,956
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:15am Nov 4, 2011 10:15am
Nice SFP on GBP/USD yesterday. I went short at 1.60319 but closed at 1.60379 because I didn't have the time to watch it. It came down nicely.. eventually!!

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  • #1,957
  • Nov 4, 2011 10:48am Nov 4, 2011 10:48am
Quoting SimonK
It just didn't work. Treat losers equally to winners.
Shouldn't one analyse their past trades to pick up on mistakes and where they went wrong no?
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  • #1,958
  • Nov 4, 2011 11:21am Nov 4, 2011 11:21am
To Tom or anyone who uses the rounded retest techinque on stocks, what stocks do you scan through to look for opportunities? Dow30? S&P500? Ftse100? etc. I assume we're looking for the most liquid stocks, but where do you draw the line on that.

Thanks
  • #1,959
  • Nov 4, 2011 1:34pm Nov 4, 2011 1:34pm
Quoting pmn100
To Tom or anyone who uses the rounded retest techinque on stocks, what stocks do you scan through to look for opportunities? Dow30? S&P500? Ftse100? etc. I assume we're looking for the most liquid stocks, but where do you draw the line on that.

Thanks

I would initially scan for the ones that have historically responded to S/R levels very well as many do not in the slightest, just a quick visual backtest is all that's needed. Then filter for the ones with blatantly obvious levels that would promote a bounce from a rounded retest. And I would agree with you on the liquidity aspect.

I've also noticed on equities that the initial retest works well but shortly thereafter it will come back for a squeeze, esp at a huge level on a longer term time frame. This isn't always the case but worth nothing so u don't get squeezed out.
  • #1,960
  • Nov 4, 2011 3:19pm Nov 4, 2011 3:19pm
Took this SFP earlier. Entered at 1.0191 and took profit at 1.0160 for +31 pips

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