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simple and clear advice for new traders, no cryptic teachings

  • #21
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:05am Sep 19, 2011 12:05am
Quoting the redlion
hey nubcake you are actually correct on your assumptions, yes, according to Average range and volatility one needs to adjust position sizing according to the least possible level of risk.

having said that.

i have experimented with many different skews of pyramiding and fti phi: pi ratio holds up in practice and theory. there is much to learn about option barriers, DNTs, one touch, digital, and exotic options, as well as clusters stops. believe me the hunt for this profitable cascade is real.

you can profit from it by following along on suspected...
i had to go back and check.

my eyes blurred and i clearly wasn't particularly thinking about it too hard.... but where i previously referred to pi i should have been referring to phi. but, i think that's obvious to anyone who is more awake than i currently am.

that said, the whole phi to pi... pyramiding and averaging in are simply two sides of the same coin. it's all still just a type of pyramid and does not in any form require one to use phi and / or pi. IF you are going to 'rescue' (in normal terms 'average in') you are simply increasing your risk by adding size that is greater than the current position size in order to move the breakeven closer. that is what averaging-in is all about. in reality, you can use a smaller size to average in, but this puts the breakeven point further away and likely defeats the whole purpose of what you are trying to achieve (but, it depends). all elementary stuff. but on the flipside you could use an even larger progression than your pi progression (again, it depends).

your whole concept of phi to pi, or pi to phi, is just a rigid pyramid. phi and pi really have nothing to do with it, and are purely convenient progressions based on a perfect-world scenario that doesn't necessarily exist.

you might be stuck using pi as your averaging-in progression since you don't have a stop and are trying to maximize your breakeven point versus increased risk, but the reality is that it all depends.

phi to pi just doesn't make sense unless it's a perfect world and all things are equal and balanced. it's ALL just pyramiding and averaging in using 'rigid' progressions.

actually, clarification... phi / pi, aren't quite a perfect pyramid, rather, they are a perfect pyramid in terms of moving the breakeven point significantly closer for an average-in or increasing potential reward when adding size to a position while keeping the breakeven point somewhat far enough away. in terms of trying to get out of shit positions fast, and stay in good positions for extended periods of time, then the whole phi / pi scenario is a perfect pyramid progression based on a perfect world scenario of price retracing to some 50% area per trend-up or trend-down out of a range.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #22
  • Sep 19, 2011 12:44am Sep 19, 2011 12:44am
Quoting in_drag88
Simple and clear advice for new traders, no cryptic trachings


1. Stay away from Trading System subforum
2. Start thinking for yourself
3. Stop your effort for finding "something"
this is seconded!

I can add the following:

1 find a good mentor if you can - not the self-marketed guru
2 do a lot of research on your own
3 history repeats itself - apply this to the markets and see for yourself
4 improve your patience and learn to control the time
  • #23
  • Sep 19, 2011 1:15am Sep 19, 2011 1:15am
I think the Trading Systems subforum isn't all that bad, you just have to realize that most of it is rubbish. There are some interesting ideas in there that could help newbies find their own way at it. Honestly, if you're not smart enough to figure out that a ready made system won't work for you the same as the author, then you aren't smart enough to figure out forex to begin with.

My advice:
Start small, like $50 small. You can slowly add to your stash as you get better.
Find one pair and stick to it. Learn all there is to know about it.
Keep risk per trade small. Profits come with experience and knowledge, don't try to rush it.
  • #24
  • Sep 19, 2011 9:56am Sep 19, 2011 9:56am
Quoting ruffryders
this is seconded!

I can add the following:

1 find a good mentor if you can - not the self-marketed guru
2 do a lot of research on your own
3 history repeats itself - apply this to the markets and see for yourself
4 improve your patience and learn to control the time
hehe..and also, stop searching advice from public forum like this, your chance to find something worth read / useful is so small, right you will gain knowledge and experience by doing so, but if you aren't lucky enough you will probably drowned deep for so long2 time, searching for something might not exist.
  • #25
  • Sep 24, 2011 2:30am Sep 24, 2011 2:30am
Quoting the redlion

take it or leave it, argue or not, believe me or not.

here i will teach you MY WAY OF COPING WITH THE UNPREDICTABLY OF THE MARKET.
Ur not gon'na teach me squat !! Take it or leave it. I don't believe you.
You're an arrogant "close-minded" little man
Your way of "coping" SUCKS.
I'll be around.
  • #26
  • Sep 24, 2011 3:15am Sep 24, 2011 3:15am
So what's the score now ??? EGF against HOW MANY ??

These are the kinds of odds I like. Keeps me sharp, focused. Ya dig ??
  • #27
  • Oct 4, 2011 5:46pm Oct 4, 2011 5:46pm
Thanks Redlion - i think you have something here....sentiment...


in a simpler way i will put it this way the larger the candle the more the price moved from the open the smaller the candle the less prevalence of those orders are being reflected. less conviction in buying or selling. eye ball the candles for average size, this is how much is possible to expect

This is what i need to learn...after 24mo's in this...i think this is the ticket...I just dont exactly know how yet.


Quoting the redlion
first of all i am of the belief that time frames do not exist, candles be it
daily, hourly, minute are simple measurements of price movement. usually quoting you the ask. this is a very important concept to grasp. there is no difference between the minute and the monthly.

when the ask price hits 1.3900 that will be the price the broker is willing to quote you at. now with that in mind. (lets use the daily for example)

in the course of 1440 minutes or a whole trading day, starting from wellington finishing at NY close. it tells you the open,high,low,close...
Entries in the wicks over and over **PVSRA rules!
  • #28
  • Oct 28, 2011 11:08pm Oct 28, 2011 11:08pm
Red.

I found your checklist on what a beginning trader should do outstanding. I would like to add some advice on how to use FF.

1. Be a stalker. Every so often you find a trader who says something you haven't heard before, or who says something that you know to be true but it is expressed a lot more elegantly. Go to their profile, check out their threads look at the people they vouched and figure out what this person has to teach you. Then make friends (or enemies) as appropriate.

2. Look for commonality. This is particularly with experienced traders that seem to disagree. Underneath the words are certain types of actions. And these actions, if they are successful traders, will probably have more in common than not. And what successful traders have in common are certain principles.

3. Evaluate posters. We may be new to trading, but we are not new to people. Look at their character, ask yourself what motivates this fellow to post, ask yourself are they honest...
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #29
  • Oct 29, 2011 1:53am Oct 29, 2011 1:53am
Redlion. wow how long did it take you to write that. Nice work indeed.

 Perhaps this could help the new entrant into this absobing world of looking in a mirror daily.

Assuming you have decided you really want to do this....
 Finding a system and personalising it is not that hard
Writing a plan is not that hard
 Having money management rules is not hard.

 So with all that done here is the real challenge you face
 Following your rules
 Working your plan
 How you think, feel and react.

 Understand;
· You will never understand the movement of price.

· You can never predict it and will kid yourself if you ever think you can.

 · Know you will win and lose and feel stupid, angry, revengeful, elated, euphoric, happy and sad.

 · Get ready to try your best to control those above emotions.

· Realise it will take a years of learning to control your thinking and then on times you won’t. Don’t despair at that point.

 · Realise you can trade without a PHD on the markets. So don’t be scared of feel daunted by all the information available.

 · Work harder on yourself that you do on your system

 · Start by reading the classic “The Disciplined Trader” by Mark Douglas.
In fact don't even go near a trade until you have read it.... twice!

 Here is your biggest challenge. Getting out of a losing trade

 Apart from that embrace the challenge and relax with it all , life is too short. Be serious with your mindset but enjoy it.
  • #30
  • Oct 29, 2011 3:29am Oct 29, 2011 3:29am
Hi Folks

I want to share a new strategy with you that how can you make money surely when the news releases or does not matter where market goes after releasing the news you can surely make money

Lets suppose you dont know after releasing the news where markets goes.

Just place an order.

Example

Place Buy 1k Lot at 1.4150 and at the same time place Sell Order with 1k Lot.

As you see that news releases markets can go in either side does not matte just wait for a while to see the trend as you find that the market is going in the either direction just close the negative position and stay with positive trade for about 20 PIPS Profit.

and Your Profit is 200$ everyday.

Cheers

Ali
  • #31
  • Oct 29, 2011 5:12am Oct 29, 2011 5:12am
Quoting blogire
Hi Folks

I want to share a new strategy with you that how can you make money surely when the news releases or does not matter where market goes after releasing the news you can surely make money

Lets suppose you dont know after releasing the news where markets goes.

Just place an order.

Example

Place Buy 1k Lot at 1.4150 and at the same time place Sell Order with 1k Lot.

As you see that news releases markets can go in either side does not matte just wait for a while to see the trend as you find that the market is going in the...
1. Does it have to be news event? Will it work other time of day?

2. How long is "a while" or how many pips before I close the losing trade?

3. What pairs does this work on?

4. Do you have any records to show when you did this strategy?

5. What broker is the best for this trading?

6. Can you post charts of winning trades?

Over to the redlion, it is your thread...
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #32
  • Oct 29, 2011 7:43am Oct 29, 2011 7:43am
1. Well I only trade this method when news releases. It is useless when I use this method on any other time.

2. Lets say on Thursday I news came of Unemployment Claim for US . I put the trade on BUY and Sell and after releasing the news even after very positive data Market went against USD after 40-50 PIPS you can realize that where the market is going on as you find that market is going in either direction just close the negative trade and wait for about 20 Pips and see your profit. Do this on demo 3-4 times and see the results you will be happy and appreciate me.

3. EUR/USD ( it can work on other pairs two but EUR/USD always has low spread)

4. Well I suggest you to apply this technique on Demo and see the results.

5. FXDD.com ( Best for hedging)

6. I did not keep the record of charts I found a way I made profit even I only trade on this way. I recommend you to place trade on demo

Quoting Callisto
1. Does it have to be news event? Will it work other time of day?

2. How long is "a while" or how many pips before I close the losing trade?

3. What pairs does this work on?

4. Do you have any records to show when you did this strategy?

5. What broker is the best for this trading?

6. Can you post charts of winning trades?

Over to the redlion, it is your thread...
  • #33
  • Edited 1:05am Oct 30, 2011 12:42am | Edited 1:05am
Quoting nubcake
and re stop hunts... i'm just a nubcake, but it strikes me as interesting that on one hand you say there are stop hunts but on the other hand for me personally i haven't seen anything on a chart that hits me in the face screaming "i'm a stop hunt look at me". it all looks like normal market movements, and the reality is certainly that every single tick up or down is hitting someone's stop somewhere... and as an opinion i suspect that any 'stop hunting' isn't as major as anyone would suggest except perhaps for a slow steady push towards option...
Hi Nubs, Great post.

I agree, there doesn't seem to be any "chart evidence" for the stop hunt. Most of it is anecdotal, and one bad experience (ie I got stopped out by one pip right before a 250 pip movement in my direction).

As part of my ongoing eduction I am trying to figure out how to identify and use option barriers...Do you have any suggestions?

I know what they are, and I know that they work like a special type of resistance/barrier...but I can't figure out how to identify them on my chart...

Aaron
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #34
  • Oct 30, 2011 5:13am Oct 30, 2011 5:13am
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Nubs, Great post.

I agree, there doesn't seem to be any "chart evidence" for the stop hunt. Most of it is anecdotal, and one bad experience (ie I got stopped out by one pip right before a 250 pip movement in my direction).

As part of my ongoing eduction I am trying to figure out how to identify and use option barriers...Do you have any suggestions?

I know what they are, and I know that they work like a special type of resistance/barrier...but I can't figure out how to identify them on my chart...

Aaron
i wouldn't call it great... merely average. the issue is that most posts on here are so shit that my mediocre musings sometimes seem extraordinary in comparison

re getting stopped by a pip or so... go do a few hundred hours simulating thousands on thousands of manual trade and you'll still probably see yourself get stopped by a pip or so over and over and over. stops will often get hit no matter what you do if you aren't taking the right approach.

re barriers. you can get some rumors from forex-live and from zerohedge / talking forex, along with limit and stop area rumours. google and you'll find (so i don't have to link and concern myself about that area of rules). make of it what you will. if you want to pay for the info then you have things like IFR and whatnot which i'm lead to believe really give the goods and perhaps give more useful data than just the ramblings of the previously mentioned places. personally i've found the rumors to be kind of hit and miss in terms of being informative (for myself).... the things i see on the charts still look much the same to me even when i know where certain numbers are meant to be areas of interest, but with that said i've looked at charts for a metric buttload of time so i'm possibly simply too familiar with price movements and so perhaps it all appears much of the same same same to me whereas to someone else it might speak volumes to them.

as for how to 'deal' with them, so to speak.... darkstar is the man, and by extension many in the 'order flow' threads. darkstar's book recently released talks about option barriers and whatnot. it won't make you a superstar overnight but it lays out the thinking that ds has when he looks to trade and is great for newbies who haven't been tainted with bullshit lies and ignorance from muppets online, but if you have already done loads of studies then there might not be anything overly groundbreaking apart from the clear way ds combines the often disparate concepts together so nicely without lies, with logic, and with reason, and for 99% of the book with total clarity. he knows his shit better than anyone and filled-in one or two gaps in my knowledge bank.

if you troll through the order flow threads you'll glean what you need to understand i'm sure, and all it'll cost you is time and patience. there's no a = b holy grail, and much work still possibly awaits you even after learning everything there is to learn from ds.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #35
  • Oct 30, 2011 5:27am Oct 30, 2011 5:27am
Thanks Nubs
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #36
  • Edited 9:09pm Nov 2, 2011 8:54pm | Edited 9:09pm
Hi

I found your thread while reading the fti thread and trying to investigate more into his scaling in and recovery methods.

I read this from you...

Quote
the phi ratio is a fibo progression scale in strategy 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 with a corresponding pi progression RESCUE skew (not martingale average down, but strategically bringing my basis close to market to get out of a bad position)
pi is 3.14, example 1,3,9...

the way i determine the spiral is by total lots in the market underwater, and total pips needed to bring the basis back to b/e on a retracement. (thanks to fti) now this requires praxis.

...and wanted to learn more so did some googling and found the thread by TwoBlinks that basically just made my head throb and left me thinking "surely it can't be that difficult".

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=201100

Can you possibly expand on your scale in and loss progression please with maybe some real world examples. I'm not a math genius by any means but am an mql programmer and was thinking it would be nice to be able to code some type of indicator, similar to a fib retracement, with corresponding levels that show scale in points and also loss recovery points.

Any help would be much appreciated to enable me to formulate some 'hard and fast' rules that I can apply to a trade once opened via whichever strategy is used (most likely a trend following strategy).

Regards

Lux

Inserted Code
Last Activity Oct 18, 2011

Just noticed the OP hasn't been on FF for a few weeks so he maybe too busy to respond. If anybody else can help clarify things it would be much appreciated.
MT4 EA, Indicator and Alert Coder Since 2006
  • #37
  • Last Post: May 3, 2012 1:47am May 3, 2012 1:47am
what a revelation redlion.....incidentally I had just discovered part of what you've said and funny how I just bumped on to this thread.

I still don't get this pi stuff ...but I sure will get around this.I read fti s stuff, good but the rescue tactics we can't agree.

sadly the thread fell to trolls...don't throw pearls to pigs.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
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