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  • #35,221
  • Nov 1, 2011 6:57pm Nov 1, 2011 6:57pm
hey guys what 'impact' announcements do you guys refer to? all four or selected?
  • #35,222
  • Nov 1, 2011 7:11pm Nov 1, 2011 7:11pm
which is the best area to short AUd?

anyone has any tips?
  • #35,223
  • Nov 1, 2011 7:55pm Nov 1, 2011 7:55pm
Quoting happytrader
which is the best area to short AUd?

anyone has any tips?
Firstly you need decide on your target and then work back from there .

Secondly in this type of uncertainty you need to have deep pockets.

Thirdly if you are convinced of a falling market you should sell now.

Fourthly picking ultimate tops will be more luck than judgement. You may want to consider staggered sells with reduced amounts.

Good luck.
  • #35,224
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:07pm Nov 1, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting happytrader
which is the best area to short AUd?

anyone has any tips?
Hello Happytrader,
Before anyone can answer this question, you need to ask what timeframe you are currently trading in.
If you are trading in a short timeframe the previous resistance areas have been around 1.0350 which has been touched several times and then 1.0370 -1.0380 which has previously been hit in the last day and it has also been a previous high Oct 17 & Sept 14 -16.

If a breach of the lows of 1.0271-1.0280 over the past day occurs and confirms then the pathway to 1.0200 and below be open.
  • #35,225
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:07pm Nov 1, 2011 8:07pm
Quoting lasty
Firstly you need decide on your target and then work back from there .

Secondly in this type of uncertainty you need to have deep pockets.

Thirdly if you are convinced of a falling market you should sell now.

Fourthly picking ultimate tops will be more luck than judgement. You may want to consider staggered sells with reduced amounts.

Good luck.
Thanks for the advice.
  • #35,226
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:08pm Nov 1, 2011 8:08pm
long 1.0330 looking for a retest of 1.0380/1.04 before back down. SL 1.0290
  • #35,227
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:22pm Nov 1, 2011 8:22pm
Quite obviously bearish, but here are my zones that I am watching:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: austdaily2.jpg Size: 88 KB
"Don't Panic..."
  • #35,228
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:58pm Nov 1, 2011 8:58pm
It seems that risk is 'Temporarily' ON after Greece's Cabinet unanimously supports the referendum. Since the news came out, it has been an 80 pips upward movement for AUD / USD pair.

It still tickles me how a lot of investors think that Greece / Euro will get out of their current mess unscathed.

Anyways, I'm still on the side that says it will continue to push it way down.

We'll see how it goes during London open later.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,229
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:35pm Nov 1, 2011 9:35pm
have a sell limit at 1.0480 with s/l at 1.0560, go to sleep now.. see you guys tmr.
  • #35,230
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:39pm Nov 1, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting happytrader
which is the best area to short AUd?

anyone has any tips?
If you wanna play it safe you should short between this range 1.045 or higher, SL 1.07 -1.08. Keep a strict monitor on the news especially eurozone. Fundamentals keep changing, The Euro zone keeps coming up with something smart and heroic (and dumb). The referendum by paparandeu is an example of political heroics, there are too many factors intertwined together. Basically, the debtor nations has the ultimate power.

In my honest opinion, it's better for Greece to default, once they default they will start anew with a clean balance sheet, I would think it's easier for them to get loans ceteris paribus. Yet, it's likely Greece would face sanctions from the Eurozone for defaulting.

Either way, without saying too much, I would focus on the opportunities that we can gain from the wild upswings and downswings.I couldn't agree more about the idea to solidify your funds for your account to be able to endure more punishment (200 to 300 pips and less open trades) and aim for bigger rewards.
  • #35,231
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:42pm Nov 1, 2011 9:42pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
It seems that risk is 'Temporarily' ON after Greece's Cabinet unanimously supports the referendum. Since the news came out, it has been an 80 pips upward movement for AUD / USD pair.

It still tickles me how a lot of investors think that Greece / Euro will get out of their current mess unscathed.

Anyways, I'm still on the side that says it will continue to push it way down.

We'll see how it goes during London open later.
I wouldn't call it risk on exactly, but after a 400 pip move who would want to be selling? Everything needs a little retrace until selling pressure comes in at a better price.

I'm not sure about what investors are thinking, but it always makes me laugh that people in charge of billions, such as Paulson are so absolutely clueless about markets and can lose 50% in under a year.

In fact, I think I read on zero hedge that hedge funds reached a correlation of 1 with the indices... As in, on average could not outperform just whacking some money on the index at the start of the year.

You have to ask yourself whether a lot of investors are actually smart, or just rise to their position/wealth through connections.

And when you really think about it, you can understand why Wall street is so corrupt. These muppets can't even beat the index. I traded stocks for 4 years before forex, just casually mind you, I would have been embarrassed not to beat the index when I started at 18.

If I couldn't beat the index after 10 years at it, I would probably start insider trading/shady dealings too.

/rant, sorry
"Don't Panic..."
  • #35,232
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:59pm Nov 1, 2011 9:59pm
Quoting Halifax
I wouldn't call it risk on exactly, but after a 400 pip move who would want to be selling? Everything needs a little retrace until selling pressure comes in at a better price.

I'm not sure about what investors are thinking, but it always makes me laugh that people in charge of billions, such as Paulson are so absolutely clueless about markets and can lose 50% in under a year.

In fact, I think I read on zero hedge that hedge funds reached a correlation of 1 with the indices... As in, on average could not outperform just whacking some money...
Hmm, - What exactly is a smart investor.

Way I see it is, the dynamics surrounding trading have changed dramatically.
5-10 Years ago it was about spreading the wealth along proportionate lines... not today, no sir - it is truly a Cut Throat environment. No longer can "smart investors" merely jump aboard the momentum train as all his peers are looking for ways to slaughter him constantly - add in Governments and you've got a fiasco.

Stagnation occurs when everyone becomes dubious of each other's action. The gist of what I'm saying is that when the market becomes as it's stated in texts, that is, "the random walk hypothesis", fund managers or the big dogs simply cannot perform as quite frankly they've no clue whats happening.

Market --> Arbitrary --> Unpredictability --> Government ---> Hoard Mentality = ? (Doom) or Sub-Par performance.
  • #35,233
  • Nov 1, 2011 10:30pm Nov 1, 2011 10:30pm
Quoting happytrader
which is the best area to short AUD?

anyone has any tips?
...........right there, see the DOJI ?

course that was about 5 days ago
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #35,234
  • Nov 1, 2011 11:44pm Nov 1, 2011 11:44pm
retracement to h1 bearish trendline now.. my OsMA shows bearish divergence too..
  • #35,235
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:14am Nov 2, 2011 1:14am
i've a feeling that AUD will head up to 1.05 before coming down again.
  • #35,236
  • Edited 1:56am Nov 2, 2011 1:33am | Edited 1:56am
hi guys hope everyones been doing alright so far today.

im looking at getting my shorts in at either the 38.2% or 50% retracements of our drop from 0720 on monday. these levels are roughly 0443 and 0495 respectively if im not mistaken.. still standing by my bearish fundamentals and just incorporating some technicals to help get me there

will add a little chart later

edit: simple is beautiful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #35,237
  • Nov 2, 2011 1:44am Nov 2, 2011 1:44am
I was so pissed yesterday trying to get in the game but AUDUSD kept falling with no retrace to enter.

Now we are getting it... 1.0450 sell limit here... almost....


what I dont like today is FOMC...
if its pro-equity, AUDUSD will rally,
if its pro-USD, very unlikely, AUDUSD will drop
if statement shows sign of controlled inflation, USD will be sold across the board
if statement shows sign of improving GDP, Employment, AUDUSD will rally
if statement shows concern over europe, AUDUSD will drop
  • #35,238
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:00am Nov 2, 2011 2:00am
Quoting BurgerKing
I was so pissed yesterday trying to get in the game but AUDUSD kept falling with no retrace to enter.

Now we are getting it... 1.0450 sell limit here... almost....


what I dont like today is FOMC...
if its pro-equity, AUDUSD will rally,
if its pro-USD, very unlikely, AUDUSD will drop
if statement shows sign of controlled inflation, USD will be sold across the board
if statement shows sign of improving GDP, Employment, AUDUSD will rally
if statement shows concern over europe, AUDUSD will drop
im waiting till after the release to short it even if we get to my desired price levels beforehand. completely lost faith in the market's ability to interpret things after last weeks euro farce
  • #35,239
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:16am Nov 2, 2011 2:16am
Why do I get the feeling that eagerness and excitement to short is present?

Emotions taking over?

  • #35,240
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:19am Nov 2, 2011 2:19am
Quoting Warwick
Why do I get the feeling that eagerness and excitement to short is present?

Emotions taking over?

i hate to admit it...

when I failed to join before the drop (from 1.06 down to 1.03) , emotion kicks in HARD
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