EURUSD - Greg's Style

Welcome...

I'm maestrodforex here on Forex Factory and @maestrodforex on twitter.
This thread will try to explain and serve as an extension of the teachings of Greg Michaelowski from FXDD and his book. (You can find him, the company and his book on Google - so search if you need) I'm in no form affiliated with the company, Greg, or his publisher and I'm only a student of his methodology and system.

A Little background:

I've been trading for about 2 years now. Started with some forex lessons at a local university/college and then went with a company who taught me some more Forex systems and gave me indicators and techniques. It wasn't until I lost 2 big accounts I really wrapped my mind around trading Forex and wanted to make this a sustainable business. Here enters the picture Greg and his teachings. I've been trying to take in everything he says and put it into practice. I am starting to understand a little of the complexity of the Forex World and how currencies move.

The purpose of this thread:

It is my attempt to help and share with those who are also trading with simple tools (Moving Avarage, Trend Lines and Fibs). We will define our risks and figure out together where most probably our currency: EURUSD wants to move. Remember: the market is always RIGHT! The market knows what it wants to do. We just follow!

Language:

This thread will be in English; nonetheless I am fluent in Spanish so if there is any need for Spanish translation or Spanish posts/replies, please advice and I will post in Spanish!

Este foro será escrito en inglés; si eventualmente alguien necesita ayuda en español, con mucho gusto lo puedo ayudar ya que hablo y escribo el español también como el inglés.

Disclaimer: (SERIOUS WARNING)

Most Forex traders lose all their money.

Using the techniques posted here in trading Forex does not guarantee success.

I am NOT calling out trades nor I am in any way or form telling anyone who reads, joins, post, comment on this thread to do/trade what I am trading at the levels I am trading or the volume I am trading in a live account. Please use a DEMO account at all times while you master this techniques and understand how the Forex market works. You are on your own, once you are trading on a real/live account!

Everything I post on this thread is for educational purposes only and I will not be held liable for any losses you may sustain.

How to Set-Up your MT4 platform:
Open a demo account with your prefered broker.
If you have an existing real/demo account then create a new Profile



Open 3 different charts of the EURUSD:

1. Daily Chart
2. 1 Hour Chart
3. 5 Minute Chart

I have started using a 4 Hour Chart but it is not in the original method that Greg describes and teaches. You could also add a 4th chart if you would like to as I have and use it along with the other 3 charts. We will use the 5 Minute Chart as our trigger chart and the rest to keep an overview of levels to watch.

You charts need to be candlestick charts and preferably color the candles RED for bear candles and GREEN for bull candles.

Next we will add some moving averages:

1. 200 MA - Green
2. 100 MA - Blue
3. 50 MA - Red

Greg doesn't use the 50 MA but I have added it to my templates and I will explain why and how I am using it to better help me see the current trend.

(I have created a template that works for me [see picture below] and you can find a ready to go template in here as well)

Finally - we need to setup our Fibs. To apply changes to a Fib you will need to first create one. Go ahead and get to the Fib tool, click it and drag and drop a Fib from a high to a low or low to a high on one of the charts in your platform. Now right click on the Fib and enter to its properties.

On the Common tab we will only change the thickness of the lines on the farthest to the right drop down box. I like to use the second thickness line.


Move on to the Fibo Levels Tab. In here we will DELETE the levels that we won't be using. The only levels that we need are:

1. 0.0
2. 38.2
3. 50.0
4. 61.8
5. 100.0

Now let's click on the description. We want to add the following characters to it should look like this: 0.0 @ %$

The addition of the characters will add the PRICE after the Fib level. Once you are done typing the special characters to all the levels - I like to change the color in Style to Blue and the thickness again to the second thickness.

We are done with the Set-Up!

Wanted to post a first view of the 4 charts and where we are this morning: October 25, 2011 @ 12:25 AM

Look at the charts in the following order:

1. Daily
2. 4 Hour
3. 1 Hour
4. 5 Minutes

You will start to make sense of certain levels and patterns...

On the DAILY chart I would like you to make note of the 61.8% retracement level @ 1.4000. That is a very important level to keep an EYE on. [One of the things we do is go ahead and add a TREND LINE on the other charts: H4, H1 & M5 at that level. We DO NOT switch our Daily chart to a 4 hour or 1 hour - instead we use the 4 charts in combination.]

On the H4 (4 Hour Chart) I would like you to look at the 38.2% retracement level which matches with the 200 MA (Green) at around 1.3650. Notice how the 200 MA was respected and the 38.2% was also respected and the price bounced off this level (which is still in play).

On the H1 (1 Hour Chart) look at the current level: 1.3904 - this level is support right now! This is a very important level because we can DEFINE RISK! If you decide to go LONG against this level - then you know that if price goes below the level and closes below the level - we might be on the wrong side and we should get OUT of the trade.

On my DEMO account I have added a buy against this level with a 15 pips Stop Loss and a 30 pips Take Profit (1:2 risk/reward ratio).

The trade entered off from the 1 hour chart ended in a loss of 15 pips when the 38.2% level wasn't hold and it dropped to the 50%.

Notice that if using the same criteria another trade could have been entered against the 50% retracement level with a 15 pips SL and a 30 pips TP. This trade would have resulted in a winning trade.

Nothing to worry, there are plenty of opportunities ahead!

Good morning = here's a look @ where we are this NY Session morning.

On the 4 hour chart - look at the 38.2% retracement level - eventhough it's about 300 pips out - it's a good level to have in mind for a buy as a support. Look how the 2 moving averages are converging with the 38.2% level. Also, I have added another tool into our analysis: trend lines. Look at the trend line on the top connecting the recent high to a higher high. It has touched the trend line 4 times so it is using this trend line as ressistance at the moment!

Next to the 1 hour chart - I have also drawn some new trend lines - the high comes in @ 1.3959 and the level to watch is the 38.2% retracement level. It sure provides a good place for a trade and a defined risk. Can use the upward trend line to manage the stop if this trade is entered. Also, notice the 50 MA (RED) this is the one Greg doesn't use in his teaching but I have included it. It helps me see where the trend is going a little easier. I believe you will see the same. It also tells me that a trade against the 61.8% or the 50% retracement are also possibilities and define my risk.

Last to the 5 minute chart - On this chart I want you to notice the channel that we have been in. Respected both on the top and bottom. Again - good levels to place trades because they define your risk!

Will keep updating as the day progresses!

Good afternoon to all...

Borrowing from another thread - and since it is Euro related - I am going to post a link to an article trying to explain the current Euro Crisis.

Hope you enjoy the reading!

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ro-crisis.html

Here's what I am looking at this point.

1 hour chart is in play on the upside - look at the trend lines. The bottom was tested and look how beautifully price action made its strides along the trend line. (Using Lime Green for bullish trend lines)

Made 3 more trades using the same 15/30 pips (1:2 risk:reward ration). The results where a loss and then 2 wins. That means we cancelled the 2 losses out and we are up 30 pips since starting.

(Disclaimer: I am only doing this for educational purposes. I'm not calling for any trades on your live account! I am only attempting to demonstrate how the technicals and simple tools such as Moving Averages, Fibs and Trendlines work.)

Hello fellow traders.

Here are my charts for this afternoon.

Daily: no change to our bias. Still looking at the marked levels.

4Hour: has seen some changes - look at the trendlines and the figures to the top side!

1Hour: my trading is based on this chart for now. I have a buy limit set because of the trendline and the 61.8% retracement of the move. The second order is a sell limit near the top because of the trendline at the high level. Again, if we can define risk, then the trades are made without fear. That's exactly what I want. No fear on my trading!

5Minute: I'm posting this chart so you can see what the price action has done, but the trade ideas are based on the 1Hour chart (see above).

Enjoy the rest of the afternoon!

I guess I needed to look closely at the 5 minute chart. I'm seeing a downward channel. It's well defined and we can get clues to where the market wants to go! Break to the upside, or downside we know our risk we have calculated our moves and we can relax! Enjoy...

I hope you get this chart. James with FXDD did a divergence webinar last week.
I think this is what he was talking about, and it helped me on top of Gregs teachings this morning to be convicted. I will try to be more timely.

Does the market react to fundamentals? My answer: of course>
But the market reacts to the fundamentals in a technical manner.
Check out the bearish move today and the 61 retracement. and the struggle at other levels.

This is only a 5 min chart but might be a HD signal wich confirms some of my other indicators. In the time it took to write this, it looks like the 100MA will be taken out in a bearish move. Happy hunting.

Yes sir - I remember that seminar - and it definetly helped you on that trade! You got exactly what he explained. It went a bit over my head - but I'll learn it in due time!

Keep the pips coming!

Here are my charts for tonight! Sorry I couldn't upload and update any earlier...

Daily = No change in the outlook / the 61.8% retracement is now been tested!

4H = technicals rule! Found ressistance on the up trend and support on the down trend line...

1H = Great moves today with a range of 200 pips in play!

5Min = Entered a small 1/2 position sale on the top side. Why a 1/2 position? Because I doubled the stop loss to 30 pips and the take profit to 60 pips... I am leaving a bit of a breathing room on the top because of the 1.4000 level. Will see how it goes and post results!

Enjoy!

So check this out - completed pattern on the DAILY chart. Didn't see it till today! Truth be told: on the DEMO account - today's move made money, on my personal LIVE account - I got trapped - I'm in a bad trade currently. But, the technicals didn't lie!

Check out the daily chart! Is this a Gartley on the Daily Chart?

Here's what I'm looking with a couple of friends over on Twitter...

Bearish move inside of a new Bullish Channel - so trading it both ways...

Short (SELL) against the top level with a possibility of taking profits before the 38.2% retracement level.

Long (BUY) against the 38.2% retracement level.

This move defines RISK and thus allows us to trade within our comfort zone and with NO FEAR!

This just out today!

A new friend on twitter: @pipterist has showed me a tool on the MT4 called: Linear Regression.

You can find it over on your MT4: Insert / Channel / Linear Regression.

Take a look at this and let me know what you think - it has been placed on top of our regular tools on this 1hour chart.

Hello,

Welcome to a new month of trading! Here are my charts for this morning... Thanks for looking!

Daily - the pattern worked: if you don't see it - well - here it is!

4H - Ressistance in the form of trend line on this 4 hour chart.
We are below the 100 MA so I believe that is our next target if we are to correct and move up!

1H - Sharp downward channel - we need to break to the top side for correction. Way below the 100 and 200 MA...

5minute - Choppy! It's really volatile - I don't know where to begin to draw lines...
I want to stay away from the 5minute chart and look more to the 1 hour chart for clues...

What has affected the markets: fundamentals! BoJ and their intervention on Sunday night (for us in the East) made the USDJPY jump up and the EURUSD jump way down. That continued on Monday and now Tuesday we might see the first corrections... Trend is still down (bear) so we should be looking for places to bounce and probably short. Also, plenty of talks from the Euro Zone about default and plans to help countries not default.

That's it for now - happy trading and post your comments and questions!

mDf

Here's a quick 5 Minute Update:

Found support on the downward channel and bounced back up!
Then found ressistance at the 38.2% retracement but the bulls couldn't get in control...

The 38.2 is key now on the top side at the close of the EURO session while the downward channel still provides support as well he earlier low...

mDf