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Flag trading the trend

  • #5,281
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:01am Nov 1, 2011 8:01am
It seems in recent months if you don't trade during the first half of London you get about 2 or 3 good trading days every few weeks.

As far as ranging conditions are concerned, it's pretty easy to see this almost every day during the NY session: 15m Bolls are often perfectly level. Hell, many times even the 1H Bolls are near level. And I watch three pairs, EU, AU and GU.
  • #5,282
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:46am Nov 1, 2011 8:46am
Quoting Tailgun
It seems in recent months if you don't trade during the first half of London you get about 2 or 3 good trading days every few weeks.

As far as ranging conditions are concerned, it's pretty easy to see this almost every day during the NY session: 15m Bolls are often perfectly level. Hell, many times even the 1H Bolls are near level. And I watch three pairs, EU, AU and GU.
Thanks gun.

How many good trading days do you get if you do trade first half of London?
  • #5,283
  • Nov 1, 2011 8:54am Nov 1, 2011 8:54am
I really can only say what I see after the fact; I am in east coast TZ, North America so the start of London is when I'm asleep. Honestly, I have truly lost count of how many days I have gotten up in the morning (at the start of NY) and looked back over the previous 5 hours, marveling at all the sweet flag trades. It seems these days that the NY session ends up a mostly muddled, ranging market with precious few good flag entries.
  • #5,284
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:16am Nov 1, 2011 9:16am
Quoting Tailgun
I really can only say what I see after the fact; I am in east coast TZ, North America so the start of London is when I'm asleep. Honestly, I have truly lost count of how many days I have gotten up in the morning (at the start of NY) and looked back over the previous 5 hours, marveling at all the sweet flag trades. It seems these days that the NY session ends up a mostly muddled, ranging market with precious few good flag entries.
Shame you're sleeping buddy when the action seems to take place. Have you tried futures, oil or gold instead or even higher TF's in FX?
  • #5,285
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:27am Nov 1, 2011 9:27am
Quoting mogulmedia
Shame you're sleeping buddy when the action seems to take place. Have you tried futures, oil or gold instead or even higher TF's in FX?
Higher TFs, yes. But I have the dilemma most small account holders have: not enough trades on the higher TFs to get a smaller account growing fast enough. But I may have no choice but to at some point go there.

For instance, I have a template wherein I chart 12 currency pairs on the 4H chart for flag patterns. You end up getting only about 3-5 SUBs per week; I open the charts about once a week to check the history. The last time I checked about a week ago 5 out of a possible 6 flag trades were winners.

The only issue with most strats that use the 4h TF is that even on the 4H charts often the most active candle is the one commensurate to the first half of the London session!

As for the other types of trading, I can't imagine - after the last 2 years I've spent studying spot forex - starting over again with something else. No, I have to find a way to make this work.
  • #5,286
  • Nov 1, 2011 9:58am Nov 1, 2011 9:58am
Quoting Tailgun
Higher TFs, yes. But I have the dilemma most small account holders have: not enough trades on the higher TFs to get a smaller account growing fast enough. But I may have no choice but to at some point go there.

For instance, I have a template wherein I chart 12 currency pairs on the 4H chart for flag patterns. You end up getting only about 3-5 SUBs per week; I open the charts about once a week to check the history. The last time I checked about a week ago 5 out of a possible 6 flag trades were winners.

The only issue with most strats that...
Yes quite a dilemma indeed. As if trading isn't frustrating enough already! I should think myself lucky that I am in London and can trade that session without losing any sleep!

Like you say though looking into the H4 could be the answer. Profit per trade will be bigger and though your lot size will be smaller, it hopefully wouldn't take too long to build your bank if checking 12 pairs with 3 or 4 trades per week? Plus depending on how much sleep you have, if you stay up quite late you can trade and only miss one H4 candle per day so hopefully that way you wouldn't miss many opportunities either...
  • #5,287
  • Nov 2, 2011 2:44am Nov 2, 2011 2:44am
HI, diamond,
thanks for your effort. since i can not PM you, I have to leave my contact here:
Vimeo user name zazhzh
email : [email protected]
pls offer the access to the videos.

Thanks again.
Zane
Quoting diamonddbw
Thank You Divergence. Yesterday's presentation was the best yet. But don't don't let it go to your head and go all "Hollywood" on us.

Rcwso has prepared pdf's to help guide us through the process of getting it right. Awesome work RC, Thank You. Sharing is what this thread is all about. We could teach a thing or two to world leaders by our example set here.

Lawton, and I, are still working on preparing videos to post to Vimeo.

I've finally (really) figured out why (Much Thanks to Lawton for all of his Help) I was having...
  • #5,288
  • Nov 2, 2011 5:04am Nov 2, 2011 5:04am
Quoting zazhzh
HI, diamond,
thanks for your effort. since i can not PM you, I have to leave my contact here:
Vimeo user name zazhzh
email : [email protected]
pls offer the access to the videos.

Thanks again.
Zane
Have you seen this one?

http://www.anymeeting.com/WebConfere...rid=E157D88285
  • #5,289
  • Nov 4, 2011 4:40am Nov 4, 2011 4:40am
A perfect set-up;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/5min9.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,290
  • Nov 4, 2011 8:02am Nov 4, 2011 8:02am
Quoting The Cableguy
A perfect set-up;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...rk72/5min9.png
not quite the overall trend was down but it was a 123 counter trend move not a flag.
  • #5,291
  • Nov 5, 2011 6:16am Nov 5, 2011 6:16am
Quoting spike00spieg
not quite the overall trend was down but it was a 123 counter trend move not a flag.

If you look, you will see its on the 5min chart.
Understand you're talking about the longer timescale being down, but i have even shown the HH/HL combo.
There was a small 123 formed after the large downward move that finished approx 12:45GMT Tuesday, followed by an even larger one on the 4hr.
This was triggered by a HH just prior to this set-up. The fact the stop at point 3 held with a HL, you should be looking for a long set-up with the usual retrace and SUB/trigger.
In this case, the flag was the correct angle (i had already drawn it in before PA made its touchpoints), the flag starts with a deep pullback, which is never breached by more than 2pips, it creates a further 2 touchpoints, with a pullback from the line prior to the SUB. The SUB itself was strong, triggering on first the 2min, then the 5min and then also the 15min chart.
I staked a 3% trade and banked it shortly afterwards, so i'm sorry, set-ups don't come any better than this.

Agreed i am looking for the trend to continue downwards on the 4hr, but of course, PA along with the SUB will dictate this.
On my chart, (the 5min), the trend was UP...
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,292
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:09am Nov 7, 2011 5:09am
So here is the update;

The 4hr chart has broken the lower line but we needed that candle to be the SUB; it wasn't - the SUB was two candles prior. When this happens it is a signal for a reversal, the current bear pennant has been spoilt.
Look how PA reverses off of the 200ma (blackline);

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/rr10/klark72/St.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,293
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:16am Nov 7, 2011 5:16am
Even with the above in mind, there was still time for the ole favourite set-up;

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/5min10.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,294
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:28am Nov 7, 2011 5:28am
and just to expand on the last post;
Inside the circled area, we have our pullback/retrace. Originally a flag, but once we have our touchpoints on the lower line, we can drag a parallel line up to the top, (i did this in anticipation this morning). With the previous evidence of the low being broken and in anticipation of a short set-up, you could have shorted from this line when PA touched it with a stop just above, the result is a great high probability/low risk trade...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...72/5minpen.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,295
  • Nov 7, 2011 5:38am Nov 7, 2011 5:38am
auto chartist is a bs package. I found one that produces bull and bear flag alert on tradestation. tradestation is too expensive $350 a month including rader sereen.
  • #5,296
  • Nov 7, 2011 6:25am Nov 7, 2011 6:25am
Quoting The Cableguy
and just to expand on the last post;
Inside the circled area, we have our pullback/retrace. Originally a flag, but once we have our touchpoints on the lower line, we can drag a parallel line up to the top, (i did this in anticipation this morning). With the previous evidence of the low being broken and in anticipation of a short set-up, you could have shorted from this line when PA touched it with a stop just above, the result is a great high probability/low risk trade...

http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...72/5minpen.png...
The red marks losing trade was a valid one?
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  • #5,297
  • Nov 7, 2011 10:14am Nov 7, 2011 10:14am
Certainly not a set-up that i would have traded spike00spieg; not enough touchpoints to any potential flagline, although if your stop was above the highest pip of the retrace, you could have sat through the uncomfortable retrace, but held on to win the points on the next drop!

I don't trade anything and everything that looks like a set-up. but have devised my own criteria to entering a trade in the hope i will eliminate all losers... i found i was far too keen to trade when i first read this system;
my thanks goes out to Mr.D once again, one in a million!

regards CG
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,298
  • Nov 7, 2011 10:32am Nov 7, 2011 10:32am
Quoting The Cableguy
Certainly not a set-up that i would have traded spike00spieg; not enough touchpoints to any potential flagline, although if your stop was above the highest pip of the retrace, you could have sat through the uncomfortable retrace, but held on to win the points on the next drop!

I don't trade anything and everything that looks like a set-up. but have devised my own criteria to entering a trade in the hope i will eliminate all losers... i found i was far too keen to trade when i first read this system;
my thanks goes out to Mr.D once again, one...
I see, I asked because it was an old 5 min rules trade and I saw that you're doing 5 min trades, the stop couldn't be above the swing high since it was much more than 26 pips there.

I guess these touches points are a great addition
  • #5,299
  • Nov 8, 2011 10:35am Nov 8, 2011 10:35am
They are indeed! How's everyone's trading going? I can remember a few others over-trading much like myself a couple of months ago!!!!

Here's today's trade, i broke the rules and staked 4%, so good was the set-up! I had to stop myself risking even more!



http://i464.photobucket.com/albums/r...k72/15min8.png
GoFundMe -stage-4-glioma-brain-cancer-fighter (link in my profile)
  • #5,300
  • Nov 8, 2011 12:58pm Nov 8, 2011 12:58pm
good retrace in audusd m5-if i have any mistake please guide me-thank
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