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  • #35,101
  • Oct 29, 2011 11:19pm Oct 29, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting taxe91
source please?

judging from what i witnessed last week, the market has priced in anything but a rate cut

that implies if the rate is unchanged that we will rally hard
I think I also read it elsewhere, however it's on Oanda's platform news as well:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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They could also be pumping the price as high as possible to short at a much better price...
  • #35,102
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:21am Oct 30, 2011 1:21am
Quoting doblece
I think I also read it elsewhere, however it's on Oanda's platform news as well:

Attachment

They could also be pumping the price as high as possible to short at a much better price...
hmm interesting. on the myfxbook calender they say the consensus is for it to stay at 4.75%.

however at the same time: "Eleven of the 17 economists surveyed by AAP say the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the cash rate from 4.75 per cent to 4.5 per cent when its board meets on November 1." - from the main local newspaper here (Sydney morning herald).

so im a bit confused on what to expect now
  • #35,103
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:58am Oct 30, 2011 4:58am
rate cut WAS priced in after that lower than expected CPI came out. but the europe euphoria was too much aud rallied last thursday n friday.
  • #35,104
  • Oct 30, 2011 8:34am Oct 30, 2011 8:34am
Quoting ragnakore
rate cut WAS priced in after that lower than expected CPI came out. but the europe euphoria was too much aud rallied last thursday n friday.
So the poster who said a rate cut unchanged would cause aud/usd to rally. I think alot of analyst our confused on whether a cut will happen or not. So this seems like no cut = rally, a cut equals consolidating aud/usd. I can see why some analyst recommended aud/nzd as a short from here. They seem to think with the uncertainty of a cut or not, nzd will be the better choice of the pair.

As for aud/usd, I think it is really 50/50 from here. We could see a break above 1.0770 and into 1.08 and 1.09...why not right? or we could see a consolidation around these levels. I dont really see it falling that much. JMO.
  • #35,105
  • Oct 30, 2011 8:53am Oct 30, 2011 8:53am
Quoting western

As for aud/usd, I think it is really 50/50 from here. We could see a break above 1.0770 and into 1.08 and 1.09...why not right? .
its possible but i think theres a few fundamentals that would stop it getting that high (or at least staying at that level for a long period):

- if we dont get a rate cut this month, theres a greater chance that we get one in december. the rba doesnt have a meeting in january thus the november and december meetings are their last chance to get the economy in tip top shape for the following year

- 'europhoria' is due to slow down this week. we're getting more and more world leaders and news agencies taking on the 'skeptical' approach to the euro deal saying euro's problems arent all over yet. lets not forget theres still the issue of italy's debt along with a few other EU members

- the S&P 500 october rally (despite being the best month in years) is eerily similar to a rally it experienced in 2007 which proved to be just a bear market correction before it resumed its fall to mid-600 levels (i guess this is more of a technical than a fundamental). and the US indices have been a great indicator to the direction of this risk pair

time will tell
  • #35,106
  • Oct 30, 2011 9:56am Oct 30, 2011 9:56am
Quoting taxe91
its possible but i think theres a few fundamentals that would stop it getting that high (or at least staying at that level for a long period):

- if we dont get a rate cut this month, theres a greater chance that we get one in december. the rba doesnt have a meeting in january thus the november and december meetings are their last chance to get the economy in tip top shape for the following year

- 'europhoria' is due to slow down this week. we're getting more and more world leaders and news agencies taking on the 'skeptical' approach to the euro...
Taxe thank you for this post. This gives some good insight!
  • #35,107
  • Oct 30, 2011 1:42pm Oct 30, 2011 1:42pm
Hows everyone doing? Looks like a interesting week ahead for sure..
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  • #35,108
  • Oct 30, 2011 2:35pm Oct 30, 2011 2:35pm
Latest story here.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-1...ia-credit.html
FXsniper Pips This Month: -780
  • #35,109
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:43pm Oct 30, 2011 4:43pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Hows everyone doing? Looks like a interesting week ahead for sure..
Nice view bro
I'm interested to take a position with this pair this week.
Not exactly my points but Almost the same in my mind
  • #35,110
  • Oct 30, 2011 4:59pm Oct 30, 2011 4:59pm
so if the rate gets cut pair goes down,if it gets left as it is what happens then theoretically ? ,as it seems everyone is saying it might be delayed till December.
  • #35,111
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:13pm Oct 30, 2011 6:13pm
AUD/USD @1.0686

The last few weeks were a classic case of both fundamentals and technicals failed to give the result most were looking for.

I will be interested to see the results for the big hedge funds for October.

The technicals are still for USD weakness and the fundamentals are very wary of europes bailout package.

For today supports 1.0670 1.0625 resistances 1.0730 1.0775

Lets see what Asia get up to..
  • #35,112
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:21pm Oct 30, 2011 6:21pm
Quoting pinkiaiii
so if the rate gets cut pair goes down,if it gets left as it is what happens then theoretically ? ,as it seems everyone is saying it might be delayed till December.
theres a real variety of views and potential outcomes right now:

0.25% rate cut : the majority of traders and analysts in the country believe this is what is most likely to happen.
some believe that the 50 pip drop we experienced after the CPI release last week was in fact the pricing in of a rate cut. however, personally (i made a post about this over the weekend) believe we could get another sell off before the news tomorrow.

rates unchanged: this will be good news for bulls right now. it has the potential to reignite the rally last week and could well be the piece of news that gets this pair over the line to 1.08. alternatively, similar to most unchanged rates announcements, the pair might get a little 20-pip 'noise' and then resume in its regular direction

0.25% rate increase : pretty much a <0.1% chance of this happening. BUT if it does happen, bears like myself are going to get the hell out of the way because we are going to 1.10 without many roadblocks in the way


hope that helps anyone looking at this pair going into the RBA news tomorrow. please add your thoughts to it fellas


Quoting western
Taxe thank you for this post. This gives some good insight!
no worries bro! its always my pleasure to bring in a little 'economic' (my true passion) analysis to the forex game
  • #35,113
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:23pm Oct 30, 2011 6:23pm
I am back and ready for action! thanks to my fellow ff gurus ( you know who you are ).

i studied the charts and tested my own set ups over the weekends and i now truly think that higher tf is better. it gives me a clearer picture of the trend and allows me to set higher profit target.

i used to do make like 3 trades a day making 10 or losing 30 pips and i had to glue my eyes to the screen for hours. it's not worth the time....
  • #35,114
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:24pm Oct 30, 2011 6:24pm
Thanks, and yes ther will be some fortunes made and lostt this week. Sooner or later the bear will awake. Testing a short and see what happens. Still early in the week, but nice to get a runner lock in..Good Luck!

Quoting egkid
Nice view bro
I'm interested to take a position with this pair this week.
Not exactly my points but Almost the same in my mind
  • #35,115
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:36pm Oct 30, 2011 6:36pm
I think we may over a 100 pipers (min) with a cut in all crosses and the kiwi, just off the cuff. Have to check some history here..

Do you or anyone know the last rate change reaction? Might be interesting....

Quoting taxe91
theres a real variety of views and potential outcomes right now:

0.25% rate cut : the majority of traders and analysts in the country believe this is what is most likely to happen.
some believe that the 50 pip drop we experienced after the CPI release last week was in fact the pricing in of a rate cut. however, personally (i made a post about this over the weekend) believe we could get another sell off before the news tomorrow.

rates unchanged: this will be good news for bulls right now. it has the potential to reignite...
  • #35,116
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:47pm Oct 30, 2011 6:47pm
Quoting Chillypiper
I think we may over a 100 pipers (min) with a cut in all crosses and the kiwi, just off the cuff. Have to check some history here..

Do you or anyone know the last rate change reaction? Might be interesting....
interestingly enough I do, keeping in mind it was a rate increase exactly 12 months ago in somewhat different economic conditions though.

the aussie closed up roughly 0.4% against the US and kiwi and nearly 0.5% against the euro. the last time we had a cut (going back to the 2009 slowdown) we lost 0.75% against the US but gained half a percent on the kiwi and were pretty much flat on the euro.

the reason i used percentages and not pips is because we were at 0.64 cents against the US dollar back in 2009 so it skews the interpretation a bit
  • #35,117
  • Oct 30, 2011 6:57pm Oct 30, 2011 6:57pm
Ok then! Based on the opposite ( cut in rate ) we can expect a bear rally. Here is Aussies index Red X marks the spot..
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  • #35,118
  • Oct 30, 2011 7:35pm Oct 30, 2011 7:35pm
i think its still have buy strength here since volume is still have low....
be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #35,119
  • Oct 30, 2011 7:48pm Oct 30, 2011 7:48pm
Still holding on th my long view here. Such strong momentum on that european bail-out...long 1.0680, stop 1.0639, targeting 1.0800-1.0900
within the next days...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,120
  • Oct 30, 2011 7:49pm Oct 30, 2011 7:49pm
close short with good news for aud with 35+ and bought for retest of 0700
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