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20% per month. Is this possible?

  • #101
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:55am Oct 23, 2011 9:55am
Quoting forexmum
I don't get stopped out much, mostly because I use small lot sizes and large stop losses, which are calculated based on the type of trade and the risk of the trade. I use a combination of fibonacci, news/fundamentals, harmonics patterns, and intuition. My hard stop is placed outside those parameters at 5% equity.
Quoting forexmum
it wasn't about finding a better trading system: I got up to $35k in three weeks in a sideways market so I finally knew I was smart enough to read a chart and predict its direction. But my subconscious programming couldn't cope with the success and gave it all away one hot night.
forexmum, no offence, but I agree with hilmy83 and M.A.C.Doug: you said some good stuff and after that you spoiled everything with these potential earnings spreadsheets, that don't relate at all to real trading and can harm the newbies.

I have nothing against the business goals, but your business goals are not the realistic goals, they are just dreams. Why? Because you don't think about some very important things, for example: you have to withdraw part of your profits (it is just a good MM), you have to pay taxes, your broker has lot size's limits etc.

You say you don't need a better trading system. Maybe, maybe not. But you DO need a much better MM, otherwise you would never lose $35K in just one day (and your hard stop 5% is HUGE. What if you have two-three trades at the same time? Are you ready to lose 10-15% in one hour?) And when you finally get much better MM, you'll understand how silly these spreadsheets look and why guys said what they said.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #102
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:04am Oct 23, 2011 10:04am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
I analyse top down to try and get a technical bias and find higher time frame support and resistance. I am watching a 15 minute chart when I trade and rarely go any lower. I am making discretionary decisions on the fly as I play a mostly relaxed game of chess with the market. When you play chess you must concentrate or you will make a mistake and lose. I am watching her moves while I make mine with little risk. I am looking for my set ups and price reaction to predetermined levels. Often I start the game without a trigger while I am waiting to pounce...
Thank you, M.A.C.Doug, very good explanation!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #103
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:16am Oct 23, 2011 10:16am
Quoting Favorite
forexmum, no offence, but I agree with hilmy83 and M.A.C.Doug: you said some good stuff and after that you spoiled everything with these potential earnings spreadsheets, that don't relate at all to real trading and can harm the newbies.
No offence taken Favorite.. You were too polite to be offensive. But I do believe you have also missed the point about understanding what is even remotely possible and about measuring your performance against it. We shall just have to agree to disagree on that.

Everyone's trading system is their own business, and mine is working for me, and I am not soliciting input into my system.

But I thank you for your other comments, I entirely agree that I needed money management. BUT, money management comes with discipline, and many people find that difficult, for reasons outside their conscious control. THAT is my point.
  • #104
  • Oct 23, 2011 10:45am Oct 23, 2011 10:45am
Quoting forexmum
No offence taken Favorite.. You were too polite to be offensive. But I do believe you have also missed the point about understanding what is even remotely possible and about measuring your performance against it. We shall just have to agree to disagree on that.

Everyone's trading system is their own business, and mine is working for me, and I am not soliciting input into my system.

But I thank you for your other comments, I entirely agree that I needed money management. BUT, money management comes with discipline, and many people find that...
forexmum, I don't want to be annoying and I swear to God: this post is NOT about "having the final word".

I'm writing this post because I didn't miss "the point about understanding what is even remotely possible". On the contrary, you missed my point. Even when you say about the perfect conditions, you just have to think about taxes, withdrawals, lot size's limit etc. For example, there are no perfect conditions under which you don't pay taxes, right?

So, if you want to have realistic goals, you have to create another spreadsheet, in which you show something like this: "If I make 50 pips per day, I'll withdraw 50% of my profits every month (it goes to my savings, my taxes, my "emergency fund" etc.) and I can do it until I achieve my broker's lot size' limit".

See what I mean? That would be much more realistic.

P.S. forexmum, are you a girl or a guy? I'm sorry to ask, but forexmum could be short from "forexmummy", and when I talk to people, I prefer to know, who they are.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #105
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:15pm Oct 23, 2011 6:15pm
P.S. forexmum, are you a girl or a guy? I'm sorry to ask, but forexmum could be short from "forexmummy", and when I talk to people, I prefer to know, who they are.

take a look at her blog and you would have seen she is a she, mum in australia is mother!!!

nice work forexmum
like your blog
i also like your decission in your analysis for this weeks action

cheers
geoff
  • #106
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:22pm Oct 23, 2011 6:22pm
Quoting Favorite
So, if you want to have realistic goals, you have to create another spreadsheet, in which you show something like this: "If I make 50 pips per day, I'll withdraw 50% of my profits every month (it goes to my savings, my taxes, my "emergency fund" etc.) and I can do it until I achieve my broker's lot size' limit".

See what I mean? That would be much more realistic.

P.S. forexmum, are you a girl or a guy? I'm sorry to ask, but forexmum could be short from "forexmummy", and when I talk to people, I prefer to know, who they are.
Thank you Favorite, this is all good stuff. Try to look at this spreadsheet as Earnings Potential, NOT a P&L. By earnings I mean revenue. But you are perfectly correct in what you say. This spreadsheet is only half the real equation, and you are asking for a P&L statement which is earnings offset with expenses. That is the next stage of planning, once you know what you can make.

This is no different to the first stage of planning of any new business. Of the 100+ business plans I have seen, they all started with a silly spreadsheet and the mental masturbation of a feelgood unrealistic revenue stream.

I do have the spreadsheet you describe, I created it when I created my business plan, but didn't think it appropriate to publish that one because that wasn't the point I was trying to make. [sigh] oh well you live and learn.

Does anybody out there have a business plan for your trading? Or is it purely an operational plan (Trading Plan). If you don't have a business plan, why not? Have you functioned very well without it? Or do you not know how to create one (many people don't). I'm interested. And in deference to this blog topic "is 20% per month possible", I have to say it absolutely is if you plan it so. Properly plan it, I mean, through research of how to achieve it, a viable system, and with a real intent to stick to your plan.

After reflecting on your comments I am going to take mine out and give it another lookover. Thanks for the stimulation! It is always helpful to get other points of view.

Favorite, you can look at "About Me" in my blog if you want the full monty about me. That'll save me some typing. The link is available in my signature. So, what about you? I also like to know a bit about someone and I'm sorry but 'Favorite" and your profile doesn't enlighten me either.
  • #107
  • Oct 23, 2011 6:25pm Oct 23, 2011 6:25pm
Quoting geoffrod
P.S. forexmum, are you a girl or a guy? I'm sorry to ask, but forexmum could be short from "forexmummy", and when I talk to people, I prefer to know, who they are.

take a look at her blog and you would have seen she is a she, mum in australia is mother!!!

nice work forexmum
like your blog
i also like your decission in your analysis for this weeks action

cheers
geoff
Thanks Geoff
  • #108
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:47pm Oct 23, 2011 9:47pm
Quoting forexmum
Favorite, you can look at "About Me" in my blog if you want the full monty about me. That'll save me some typing. The link is available in my signature. So, what about you? I also like to know a bit about someone and I'm sorry but 'Favorite" and your profile doesn't enlighten me either.
Thank you, forexmum, I didn't have any idea about blog's structure, now I will know. We live and we learn.

I'm a guy, in my 40-s, live in the US, started trading FOREX three and a half years ago. First year was tough, after that my trading started getting much better, now things are looking up!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #109
  • Oct 23, 2011 9:58pm Oct 23, 2011 9:58pm
Quoting forexmum
I do have the spreadsheet you describe, I created it when I created my business plan, but didn't think it appropriate to publish that one because that wasn't the point I was trying to make. [sigh] oh well you live and learn.

...............................

Properly plan it, I mean, through research of how to achieve it, a viable system, and with a real intent to stick to your plan.

After reflecting on your comments I am going to take mine out and give it another lookover. Thanks for the stimulation! It is always helpful to get other points of view.
Good for you!

Quoting forexmum
Does anybody out there have a business plan for your trading? Or is it purely an operational plan (Trading Plan). If you don't have a business plan, why not? Have you functioned very well without it? Or do you not know how to create one (many people don't). I'm interested. And in deference to this blog topic "is 20% per month possible", I have to say it absolutely is if you plan it so. Properly plan it, I mean, through research of how to achieve it, a viable system, and with a real intent to stick to your plan.
When I just started trading, I tried to create a business plan, but after a little while I saw that it just distracted me from the trading itself... Well, people are different. I don't think that not having a business plan somehow worsened my trading. I'm trying to keep things as simple as possible, I have my daily goal and my weekly goal and I know where I want to be in a year from now.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #110
  • Oct 23, 2011 11:45pm Oct 23, 2011 11:45pm
Quoting Favorite
Thank you, forexmum, I didn't have any idea about blog's structure, now I will know. We live and we learn.

I'm a guy, in my 40-s, live in the US, started trading FOREX three and a half years ago. First year was tough, after that my trading started getting much better, now things are looking up!
Very nice to meet you Favorite. Good job on getting things looking up. What did you do differently?
  • #111
  • Oct 24, 2011 12:02am Oct 24, 2011 12:02am
Quoting forexmum
Very nice to meet you Favorite.
Same here, forexmum!

Quoting forexmum
What did you do differently?
I know there are a lot of traders who say that they started trading profitably after they paid more attention to the trading psychology, but I never had any problems in this area. During my first year I didn't have any really good and reliable system and, of course, the results were pretty bad (but I was smart enough to open a very small account, so I didn't lose a lot of money). But after I mastered my first good system, my trading got much better. Right now I have 5 different systems, trade two or three of them every day. I think the most important thing I learned is: you can't trade the same system all the time, you have to have "a tool box" that contains several different systems and use the "tool" that fits the current market condition.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #112
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:38am Oct 24, 2011 7:38am
From my opinion it is possible if you have a solid system and you follow the rules but you still have to risk a lot in order to make such high returns. I'm striking for 5-8% per month. If you have a lot of time for trading and a few solid systems (Intraday and Swing) 20% per month might be achieved I guess.
  • #113
  • Oct 24, 2011 7:55am Oct 24, 2011 7:55am
Hi, first post here..
I think what was said about having a plan is very important.
I have been trading what some would call a risky system for some time now.
It gives about 20%-50% per month.

But that is where the plan comes in.
Knowing what the risk is allows you to know what to expect.

eg. If I expect my system to fail roughly every 6 months and when it fails I lose 30% of my account I am still way ahead.

Point is if you want to make a large % per month understand the risk and have a plan for when things dont go your way.

Test if on a demo first? you have nothing to lose. I run heaps of demo's. I wouldnt trade a cent unless I had tested a system on a demo for some time.
  • #114
  • Oct 27, 2011 3:22am Oct 27, 2011 3:22am
Quoting Favorite
M.A.C.Doug, that means that your stop-loss is only 5 pips, right? I never understand how people can trade with SL 5-6 pips, even M-5 (EURUSD and GBPUSD) hits 5 pips SL almost immediately. I'm not trying to be funny: how do you do this?
Like this
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  • #115
  • Edited 3:36am Oct 27, 2011 3:24am | Edited 3:36am
and here is my single live trade today with a very tight stop. Two positions were taken as it was an A grade set up similar to the one above. 1.2% return in 15 minutes and Im done
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  • #116
  • Oct 27, 2011 11:17pm Oct 27, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
and here is my single live trade today with a very tight stop. Two positions were taken as it was an A grade set up similar to the one above. 1.2% return in 15 minutes and Im done
M.A.C.Doug , what is the trigger for your entry, and how do you know,that is an "A grade set up".

Best regards,

Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #117
  • Edited Oct 29, 2011 2:14am Oct 28, 2011 8:30am | Edited Oct 29, 2011 2:14am
Quoting du jin shan
M.A.C.Doug , what is the trigger for your entry, and how do you know,that is an "A grade set up".

Best regards,

Jin Shan
firstly the market condition is trending. There has been a strong breakout. I want to trade in the direction of the break. I can enter at anytime but this would be less than A grade as the probability of price retracing further is high. Price then retraces to a well defined support level and that is my trigger.The market does not turn at a random price level, it turns at significant levels of support/resistance. I am picking precise areas for the market to turn. My stop is tight and price does not even need to make a new high to return me 3x my risk.
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  • #118
  • Edited 12:20pm Oct 30, 2011 11:23am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
firstly the market condition is trending. There has been a strong breakout. I want to trade in the direction of the break. I can enter at anytime but this would be less than A grade as the probability of price retracing further is high. Price then retraces to a well defined support level and that is my trigger.The market does not turn at a random price level, it turns at significant levels of support/resistance. I am picking precise areas for the market to turn.
thanks for your reply M.A.C.Doug

Quote
My stop is tight

M.A.C.Doug, do your stoploss often be hit by the fake out or the volatility of the market ?

Quote
and price does not even need to make a new high to return me 3x my risk.

M.A.C.Doug, why dont you set the takeprofit target at the next resistance (assuming buy position) ? because using breakout strategy, it can lead to an impulsive wave,
why limit the target by 3x_risk when we can have more profit by this impulsive waves ?

sorry if i asking too much silly quoestion,

Best regards

Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
  • #119
  • Oct 30, 2011 7:10pm Oct 30, 2011 7:10pm
M.A.C.Doug, do your stoploss often be hit by the fake out or the volatility of the market ?

I'm curious to know this as well.

M.A.C.Doug, why dont you set the takeprofit target at the next resistance (assuming buy position) ? because using breakout strategy, it can lead to an impulsive wave,
why limit the target by 3x_risk when we can have more profit by this impulsive waves ?
[/quote]
Jin that is a very good question. However if I could jump in here I suspect the point of M.A.C.Doug's trading is that he has a very tight plan that targets a number of pips and a certain income, and he stops there. That is my interpretation of what he is saying. It seems a very risk averse strategy that protects his equity. Every now and then he stops, drops a net into the river of money, and pulls out what he needs. I am full of admiration for someone that disciplined.

Your point seems to be "yes, but you can make so much more". That then becomes a different trading system, with a different objective and a different target. Beware the slippery slope to aiming for 'so much more'. It can mess with your head and your ability to stop where you need to (at least that's my experience). That's the point of a plan. So you set yourself earning boundaries and don't let the greed switch activate!
  • #120
  • Oct 31, 2011 12:46am Oct 31, 2011 12:46am
Quoting forexmum
Your point seems to be "yes, but you can make so much more". That then becomes a different trading system, with a different objective and a different target. Beware the slippery slope to aiming for 'so much more'. It can mess with your head and your ability to stop where you need to (at least that's my experience). That's the point of a plan. So you set yourself earning boundaries and don't let the greed switch activate!
i'm doubtful what is the best takeprofit target, whether use a risk reward as a takeprofit target or use technical analysis(support/resistance) to set a takeprofit target.

Best regards,
Jin Shan
- 888 Horse Power - Fast Momentum Speed Run Towards VICTORY
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