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AUD/USD

  • #35,041
  • Oct 27, 2011 6:54pm Oct 27, 2011 6:54pm
short from 1.0735 and ill keep it runnin stoploss 68
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #35,042
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:10pm Oct 27, 2011 7:10pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Here we go again, lets continue up to target 1.1000...

In long again @ 1.0707, target 1.1000, stop 1.0681
i admire your perseverance, no sarcasm intended.

having said that, i guess this means youre not fearing a pullback?
  • #35,043
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:12pm Oct 27, 2011 7:12pm
Quoting taxe91
i admire your perseverance, no sarcasm intended.

having said that, i guess this means youre not fearing a pullback?


lol yeah .. i guess he dont because he is not looking at chart
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #35,044
  • Oct 27, 2011 7:15pm Oct 27, 2011 7:15pm
Quoting eqshack
lol yeah .. i guess he dont because he is not looking at chart
not sure what youre trying to say but the bloke youre talking about pulled off a 300+ pip trade last night. wouldnt hurt to hear his thought process
  • #35,045
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:10pm Oct 27, 2011 8:10pm
Quoting taxe91
i admire your perseverance, no sarcasm intended.

having said that, i guess this means youre not fearing a pullback?
Morning (well, midday..) Guys!
What a night!...

I think yesterdays announcement is unprecedented and though the market VERY rearly moves this much in one day there are strong forces willing to push AUD and EUR higher because of a RISK ON (BurgerKing) scenario at the moment.

I believe that the retracement to 1.0690 will be the low point for the next days to come and we might not see 1.1000 (a bit too enthusiastic) so I have revised my take profit to 1.0900 and I think we will see it before US close of business November 1:st.

So, my trade at the moment: Long @ 1.0707, Tp 1.0900 and Sl 1.0681.

I wish you all good trades, there are pips out there for all of us, Bulls and Bears.

Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,046
  • Oct 27, 2011 8:33pm Oct 27, 2011 8:33pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Check the daily chart. Seems we are starting to develop an inverse H&S.
Comments like this without any supporting details are pure speculation, some might even say idiotic!

Head & Shoulders patterns are reversal patterns, therefore an inverse H & S would only appear in a DOWN trend - which for the AUD-USD is not the case!

Just in case I'm wrong, please explain your analysis a bit more in depth along with a CHART, thanks
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #35,047
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:04pm Oct 27, 2011 9:04pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Morning (well, midday..) Guys!
What a night!...

I think yesterdays announcement is unprecedented and though the market VERY rearly moves this much in one day there are strong forces willing to push AUD and EUR higher because of a RISK ON (BurgerKing) scenario at the moment.

I believe that the retracement to 1.0690 will be the low point for the next days to come and we might not see 1.1000 (a bit too enthusiastic) so I have revised my take profit to 1.0900 and I think we will see it before US close of business November 1:st.

So, my trade...
Well, that was the end of that! Stopped out at 1.0681, lost 26 pips...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #35,048
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:05pm Oct 27, 2011 9:05pm
Interestingly,another pair which has also been worth a look is AUD/CAD.In the 4h chart there could be a double top forming.Might be worth shorting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FXsniper Pips This Month: -775
  • #35,049
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:25pm Oct 27, 2011 9:25pm
Quoting rnegoro
Most of the happenings here determined by euro news, don't really understand why the market feels euro have to strengthen, after all wont ecb be printing more euros to rescue its debt stricken nations ? Cant understand how the piigs can get out of debt even with the cut, seriously, what about the cuts for the other PIgss.... ? Seems to me this bull run for the euro might be short lived.
Here? Where is here? In the AUD-USD thread, perhaps., speaking of which, why are you worried about the EUR?

Do you really need to know what is going on to be able to trade? Who cares if the run is short lived? Trade it up, then trade it down, easy!

I just use PRICE
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #35,050
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:39pm Oct 27, 2011 9:39pm
Quoting Erebus
Comments like this without any supporting details are pure speculation, some might even say idiotic!

Head & Shoulders patterns are reversal patterns, therefore an inverse H & S would only appear in a DOWN trend - which for the AUD-USD is not the case!

Just in case I'm wrong, please explain your analysis a bit more in depth along with a CHART, thanks
No chart here.. at work. Just had a quick glance at the daily chart to see whether any important patterns were forming...

Anyways, why I think this might happen, and as usual it's up to anyone to believe it / not...

1. From the July high, we went down to 0.9927 / 38 (august 9) - First shoulder (inverse)
2. While we are currently in an uptrend, i.e. just broke a DOWNTREND / Bearish channel that started from July, we have not broken a potential neckline i.e. 1.0751 /90 (Sept 1 High).
3. We then went all the way for to 0.9396 (potential head (inverse)
4. Now we are all the way back up at the neckline.

These are my technical analysis in why I think the price might reverse temporarily, and might touch parity (if we are lucky), we reversing its course upwards.

From a fundamental view, this is how I think it would work.

As we have had enough news with regards to Eur, the next big news for AUD is the RBA rate cuts. The 'potential' RBA rate cut, will probably bring AUD down.

The other news coming within the next mth that might bring AUD down also is the potential that France might get a rating downgrade from its AAA status.

Just with this two, there is a possibility that we can get back to Parity, before we resume the uptrend to finish the inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is taking into account that the US government might announce QE3, etc.

But as stated earlier, this is just my thoughts.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,051
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:50pm Oct 27, 2011 9:50pm
Like your analysis, and it makes sense to me.
  • #35,052
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:18pm Oct 27, 2011 10:18pm
well, I guess.... but are you saying we should trade down to there, or wait for the pattern to complete?

I think most here are discretionary scalpers with no patience, only want to short in up moves and buy down moves...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #35,053
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:26pm Oct 27, 2011 10:26pm
Quoting Erebus
well, I guess.... but are you saying we should trade down to there, or wait for the pattern to complete?

I think most here are discretionary scalpers with no patience, only want to short in up moves and buy down moves...
IMHO, the safer trade is to wait for the inverse shoulder (i.e. around parity) before purchasing.

But for scalpers, obviously the next trade opp would be the RBA rate announcement.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,054
  • Oct 27, 2011 10:58pm Oct 27, 2011 10:58pm
As only a relative newbie, I know there are standards for H&S etc, but when the patterns are strong, and even if not in the traditional context, worth keeping an eye on.

It doesn't matter if you think everyone else has it wrong, as experience has shown me, if it is trending, bad luck if you can't see why, just hop on in the right direction. Trade with your beliefs at your own detriment!
  • #35,055
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:30am Oct 28, 2011 1:30am
Quoting kj63
Like your analysis, and it makes sense to me.
Check this out and let us know what you think, thanks

http://www.compassfx.com/video/flash/102711/102711.html
OPPORTUNITY IS NOWHERE
  • #35,056
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:38am Oct 28, 2011 1:38am
Quoting kj63
As only a relative newbie, I know there are standards for H&S etc, but when the patterns are strong, and even if not in the traditional context, worth keeping an eye on.

It doesn't matter if you think everyone else has it wrong, as experience has shown me, if it is trending, bad luck if you can't see why, just hop on in the right direction. Trade with your beliefs at your own detriment!
Agreed. I'm not saying that this is a slamdunk, but just be aware that there is a possibility that the price will go down (question is how fast, how long). There are probably pattern traders out there who are salivating at the thought of seeing an inverse H&S.

Anyways, as usual, trade forex at your own risk. The forums are for us to share ideas, and it's up to each individual to like / dislike any of the ideas that are being shared.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #35,057
  • Oct 28, 2011 1:56am Oct 28, 2011 1:56am
seems to be a support zone forming at 1.0660...3 clean bounces off it in the past 2 hours
  • #35,058
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:18am Oct 28, 2011 2:18am
Quoting taxe91
seems to be a support zone forming at 1.0660...3 clean bounces off it in the past 2 hours
Agree , looks like Bull taking a nap after really hardwork yesterday & might come back at US open or Monday ..before hesitate to move next Tuesday waiting for the rate decision..if there's a rate cut the bear will start coming..
  • #35,059
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:32am Oct 28, 2011 2:32am
Quoting taxe91
seems to be a support zone forming at 1.0660...3 clean bounces off it in the past 2 hours
make that 4.. ominous
  • #35,060
  • Oct 28, 2011 2:33am Oct 28, 2011 2:33am
Quoting andri66
Agree , looks like Bull taking a nap after really hardwork yesterday & might come back at US open or Monday ..before hesitate to move next Tuesday waiting for the rate decision..if there's a rate cut the bear will start coming..
wonder if RBA will be skeptical (like most traders here) if the eu summit outcome is going to stop a european recession. if so, that would probably encourage a cut. on the other hand the good gdp figure out of the US would do the opposite
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