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AUD/USD

  • #34,941
  • Oct 26, 2011 5:10pm Oct 26, 2011 5:10pm
AUD/USD @1.0400

Solid support off 1.0310-20 area had the bears scrambling.
The hopefuls once again think Europe will be ok and risk back on.

George Soros made a comment that UK will be worse the Spain but the only thing that is saving them is printing cash.
What a mess..

Locally all the newspapers are talking interest rate cuts on the bad inflation number.. and the bullish economist have gone back into their shells..

To be honest I think it needs 1 pct cut to have an impact on the economy as everyday we hear 2 speed economy and lately 3 speed.. Im guessing that speed is reverse.

Today we may flounder around 1.0325-1.0425 ...

Good luck
  • #34,942
  • Oct 26, 2011 5:40pm Oct 26, 2011 5:40pm
Quoting Rom-pom-pom
another trade setup. pic says it all
almost as predicted.
Attached Image
  • #34,943
  • Oct 26, 2011 5:46pm Oct 26, 2011 5:46pm
I will wait for this rise to run out of steam before going in. Patience.

1.0425 short seems very tempting ATM. but Patience.

I might get to short at higher price or a lower price. But Patience.

We need confirmations for a big bullet trade.

ADD: USD GDP later is a confirmation if AUD will drop hard (lower number) or not (higher number).
  • #34,944
  • Edited 6:05pm Oct 26, 2011 5:51pm | Edited 6:05pm
left my audusd short position running overnight

looking to exit out of my nzdusd and this position
  • #34,945
  • Oct 26, 2011 7:26pm Oct 26, 2011 7:26pm
Had a few short positions closed (TP'ed) as I put 1.0325 (taking into account that 1.0320 seems to be a solid support.

Waited until it went all the way up (1.0425) and put in a few small short positions taking 1.0350 /20 as TP for another round of trading.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,946
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:15pm Oct 26, 2011 8:15pm
Quote
BLOOMBERG: Sarkozy to Call China's Hu Jintao today about contributing to a fund that will backstop ailing EU countries
If China wont contribute then
#1 SELL YOUR HOUSE! (so you can )
#2 SELL AUDUSD! (big)
#3 SELL EURUSD! (big)

Not necessarily in that order...
because you might end up with:
#1 SELL AUDUSD!
#2 SELL EURUSD!
#3 SELL YOUR HOUSE! (to cover for the huge losses)

  • #34,947
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:36pm Oct 26, 2011 8:36pm
Quoting BurgerKing
If China wont contribute then
#1 SELL YOUR HOUSE! (so you can )
#2 SELL AUDUSD! (big)
#3 SELL EURUSD! (big)

Not necessarily in that order...
because you might end up with:
#1 SELL AUDUSD!
#2 SELL EURUSD!
#3 SELL YOUR HOUSE! (to cover for the huge losses)


hahaha..

Why would you bailout someone when you can own it at a firesale?

China loves a bargain ..
  • #34,948
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:38pm Oct 26, 2011 8:38pm
my oh my. came back to my trading platform this afternoon to see we've revisited 1.0420 levels .. cant wait to short this baby

the euro also looks determined (again) to touch 1.40 before resuming its drop into the basement levels of 1.32

any reason why we havent gotten much news if any out of the eu summit yet? its past midnight in europe isnt it?


Quoting lasty
hahaha..

Why would you bailout someone when you can own it at a firesale?

China loves a bargain ..
china wants pulling power with the imf. if there is a debt fund developed by the imf for the emerging countries, you better believe china will want a part of it
  • #34,949
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:45pm Oct 26, 2011 8:45pm
We are already at the 1.0450 levels after it was announced that the banks has agreed to the 50pc haircut on Greek's debt.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,950
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:47pm Oct 26, 2011 8:47pm
Moving up to 1.05 again ? so 50% haircut on greek debt is good news....then we'll wait for US GDP later today..Good Luck !!
  • #34,951
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:51pm Oct 26, 2011 8:51pm
The 50% haircut isnt officially done deal - just a news leak (aka rumor) from AP.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.
  • #34,952
  • Oct 26, 2011 8:55pm Oct 26, 2011 8:55pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
We are already at the 1.0450 levels after it was announced that the banks has agreed to the 50pc haircut on Greek's debt.
Quoting andri66
Moving up to 1.05 again ? so 50% haircut on greek debt is good news....then we'll wait for US GDP later today..Good Luck !!

Quoting BurgerKing
The 50% haircut isnt officially done deal - just a news leak (aka rumor) from AP.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.
exactly, that rumour was already floating around when i was on last night. bigger issue is what happens to the other 50%?
i love when these rumours get priced in, so i can reap the benefits if they fall through
  • #34,953
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:00pm Oct 26, 2011 9:00pm
Deep limit 1.0650 still in play, half my load in the bank.

Preparing to sell E/U at 1.4050 area



Quoting spillini
My numbers are buy at the bell, stop at 1.0154 and limit at 1.065. Just for spice I will pull 1/2 off at 1.05 and move stop to B/E
Please do not vouch for me.
  • #34,954
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:06pm Oct 26, 2011 9:06pm
Quoting spillini
Deep limit 1.0650 still in play, half my load in the bank.

Preparing to sell E/U at 1.4050 area
respect to you for holding onto that position through the bearish pressure the last 2 days. looks like it will pay off handsomely
  • #34,955
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:19pm Oct 26, 2011 9:19pm
very strong up momentum.. putting my gun on safety for the moment till the smoke clears.
  • #34,956
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:21pm Oct 26, 2011 9:21pm
remember that cnbc "expert" calling to short AU @ 1.0475?
his price is in the air.

any takers?
  • #34,957
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:56pm Oct 26, 2011 9:56pm
Quoting BurgerKing
remember that cnbc "expert" calling to short AU @ 1.0475?
his price is in the air.

any takers?
that call is so suspicious especially since cnbc themselves were forecasting a US gdp figure that will shatter expectations. even on the cnbc homepage now you'll see the top story is "US Economic Growth Could Be the Best in a Year".


despite my tendancy to jump into 'kamikaze' type trades like this.. not sure even i have the guts to take it
  • #34,958
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:57pm Oct 26, 2011 9:57pm
euphoria at the moment is subsiding...
a little drop we go


but what if that gdp of 2.5 is a dud and came out just 2.0%?

2.5% is too high a level IMO
  • #34,959
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:04pm Oct 26, 2011 10:04pm
greed almost made me hold on to my shorts, thankfully i shifted my t/p to b/e

still awaiting for entry on audcad
  • #34,960
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:07pm Oct 26, 2011 10:07pm
yes, 2.5% is a high estimate no doubt but even if it fell short of that expectation it would still be an improvement on the dull last quarter figure. and we know first hand how the risk-embracing bulls have been willing this week to buy into any news that isnt catastrophic.

theres no chance i hold a short going into this news release, even if the pair does drop 50 pips like it did with the CPI yesterday
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