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  • #1,921
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:21am Oct 26, 2011 9:21am
Quoting cmeade2
OK here is an example of what I am talking about. It's from the EU at 10:00 on Oct 24. On the 15 M the price comes down to the 10 EMA and might look like a classic two bar retrace long trade, after the bar marked with an arrow. At the same time, however, on the 5M you see that the price has come down below the 14 EMA and you are starting to get wicks from the underside, indicating resistance to a downward sloping line.

To me, this is a clear signal to go short, rather than the "knee jerk" on the 15M which might say to go long.
Interesting... Looking over the M15 chart, I think i would have gotten burned on a long 10 touch on that trade, too! I'll have to study this some more.

Question: why do you use a 14 EMA, as opposed to 5 or 10 per Choros setup?

Thanks for sharing info!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,922
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:21am Oct 26, 2011 9:21am
Quoting AlienFrog
Thanks, Bouba. I was looking at it as an M15 35/50 touch - steep MAs, confluence with DP and RN, quick retrace after good down move, first touch. The big candles did bother me a little, but I decided it looked like a good setup anyway.

Touch trades by nature look like a dead end bar at the moment it touches the MA. You have faith in the setup and other factors at the moment you enter.

As you say, sometimes it looks good and it just goes against you.

Hope you got some pips off the EG 35/50 touch!
It was a good trade. The reason it failed was because of a news event: the bundestag voting in favor of a leveraged efsf. The euro jumped, and everything else with it.
  • #1,923
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:26am Oct 26, 2011 9:26am
I think it was in one of Clay's manuals or maybe Kostas who recommended the 14 ema on M5 and M1.

All I can say is that it does seem to be an important level on this time scale.
Quoting AlienFrog
Interesting... Looking over the M15 chart, I think i would have gotten burned on a long 10 touch on that trade, too! I'll have to study this some more.

Question: why do you use a 14 EMA, as opposed to 5 or 10 per Choros setup?

Thanks for sharing info!
  • #1,924
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:29am Oct 26, 2011 9:29am
Quoting Haydel
I made a big mistake with this call, and this one is the second time that this same thing happens to me this month. I hope that we can learn from this.

It was very simple and no big analysis in necessary.

In GBPUSD pair, 62 EMA in H1 time frame is extremely strong!!! Several times I made great trades form it, but for some reason I completely ignored it today .

The price was bouncing form H1 62 EMA (Perfect bounce by the book), so shorting near that was not a good idea.

Sorry for that call, I lost money too.
great haydel, perfect analysis.

Avoid to go against Higher timeframe signal give more probability to M15 signal.

It's a conservative approach but imho a fondamental approach to be consistent on the long term
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #1,925
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:36am Oct 26, 2011 9:36am
Quoting Haydel
I made a big mistake with this call, and this one is the second time that this same thing happens to me this month. I hope that we can learn from this.

It was very simple and no big analysis in necessary.

In GBPUSD pair, 62 EMA in H1 time frame is extremely strong!!! Several times I made great trades form it, but for some reason I completely ignored it today .

The price was bouncing form H1 62 EMA (Perfect bounce by the book), so shorting near that was not a good idea.

Sorry for that call, I lost money too.
Thanks, Haydel, good analysis. At least I'm only losing a dollar or so at a time. So I only get angry, not sick like if it's real money!

I'll be at the last resort soon - vinegar therapy!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,926
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:44am Oct 26, 2011 9:44am
Quoting kostas1
EU:
Looks like a short trend developing. Already got +15p from M5 5 bounce. Next I am looking for M5 12 and then M15 10.
Looks so logical when Kostas posts it! Kostas, are you still watching for both those touches, now 30 minutes later, even when trend is now pretty deep?

Edit: I'm just going to watch, no more trades for me today.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,927
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:53am Oct 26, 2011 9:53am
Quoting AlienFrog
Looks so logical when Kostas posts it! Kostas, are you still watching for both those touches, now 30 minutes later, even when trend is now pretty deep?

Edit: I'm just going to watch, no more trades for me today.
Need another +15p to finish the day, so yes I am watching. No real opportunity to enter again and I learned NOT to chase a trend. So waiting patiently to retrace to M5 12.....
  • #1,928
  • Edited 9:59am Oct 26, 2011 9:55am | Edited 9:59am
Now, 4H 35/50 MA, 1D 50EMA, DS, WP are so weak when trend was formed.
On the other hand, market does not want give us even a 5M 10EMA touch opportunity
Edit: Dr Kostas. why do not we try HTF touch such as D1 10 EMA now? Can you share with us your thinking. I remember you did trade HTF touching and always got very good result. Thanks
Dancing with Candlesticks
  • #1,929
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:56am Oct 26, 2011 9:56am
I would have thought you would have taken the RN bounce at 1.38 already good for 15+ pips.

Quoting kostas1
Need another +15p to finish the day, so yes I am watching. No real opportunity to enter again and I learned NOT to chase a trend. So waiting patiently to retrace to M5 12.....
  • #1,930
  • Oct 26, 2011 9:58am Oct 26, 2011 9:58am
Quoting cmeade2
I would have thought you would have taken the RN bounce at 1.38 already good for 15+ pips.
NOT recommended in a strong trend like this. Have been burned before in such a case. A wise trader once said "Don't get in front of a freight train". This is the definition of a freight-train. Waiting first for a train stop (retrace) to board the train for 15-30p.

EDIT: Now that you mentioned it, we also have a good confluence of Daily 10, Daily S2 and RN here. So if there is a double M5 bottom, I may try a long for 15-20p.
  • #1,931
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:02am Oct 26, 2011 10:02am
I agree that it is a strong trend like a freight train. And in general it is wise to stay clear. But from my perspective, it really needed to reverse. I also look at RSI(2) and it was really impossible for this to go any lower on the M5 or the M15. So it seemed pretty safe to me.

Quoting kostas1
NOT recommended in a strong trend like this. Have been burned before in such a case. A wise trader once said "Don't get in front of a freight train". This is the definition of a freight-train. Waiting first for a train stop (retrace) to board the train for 15-30p.
  • #1,932
  • Oct 26, 2011 10:08am Oct 26, 2011 10:08am
Quoting cmeade2
I agree that it is a strong trend like a freight train. And in general it is wise to stay clear. But from my perspective, it really needed to reverse. I also look at RSI(2) and it was really impossible for this to go any lower on the M5 or the M15. So it seemed pretty safe to me.
Be careful, big trend always produce when indicator is overbought or oversold. Good for sideways market but for trend....
I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
  • #1,933
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:04am Oct 26, 2011 11:04am
Quoting kostas1
Need another +15p to finish the day, so yes I am watching. No real opportunity to enter again and I learned NOT to chase a trend. So waiting patiently to retrace to M5 12.....


M15 retrace to 10, confluence with RB 1.3850, M5 23. I'll guess you took your entry off the M5 23 touch and didn't wait to touch the M15 10 because of the RN resistance.
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,934
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:15am Oct 26, 2011 11:15am
Quoting AlienFrog


M15 retrace to 10, confluence with RB 1.3850, M5 23. I'll guess you took your entry off the M5 23 touch and didn't wait to touch the M15 10 because of the RN resistance.
You are LEARNING!!!!!

P.S. Beautiful M5 pinbar right there, I couldn't resist.
  • #1,935
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:48am Oct 26, 2011 11:48am
Quoting kostas1
You are LEARNING!!!!!

P.S. Beautiful M5 pinbar right there, I couldn't resist.
I got in on that one too, I'm struggling every day to end break even, but I'm getting there, I haven't posted for a while... but I watch closely, thanks for keepin' on this thread Kostas and guys
Flp. 4:13
  • #1,936
  • Oct 26, 2011 11:50am Oct 26, 2011 11:50am
Quoting kostas1
You are LEARNING!!!!!

P.S. Beautiful M5 pinbar right there, I couldn't resist.
Your first post jump-started my brain. I followed the trade, did everything except execute the trade. As I said, I'm done after two losses today.

I WILL learn to do it! Thanks for the encouragement!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
  • #1,937
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:31pm Oct 26, 2011 12:31pm
Quoting Anthar
I got in on that one too, I'm struggling every day to end break even, but I'm getting there, I haven't posted for a while... but I watch closely, thanks for keepin' on this thread Kostas and guys
If you manage to break-even most of the time, then you are on your way to success. Next step, manage to keep daily profits.....
  • #1,938
  • Oct 26, 2011 12:35pm Oct 26, 2011 12:35pm
By the way, kind of late but the M15 10 may provide a scooped-up trade in EU. Alternatively, the H1 10 may five an easy 15-20p shorting.
  • #1,939
  • Oct 26, 2011 1:08pm Oct 26, 2011 1:08pm
Quoting AlienFrog


M15 retrace to 10, confluence with RB 1.3850, M5 23. I'll guess you took your entry off the M5 23 touch and didn't wait to touch the M15 10 because of the RN resistance.
yeah price seems to respect M5 23EMA very well. I really wonder how Kostas or other traders discover these kind of things.... I assume it is through trial and error and recording results. Any idea?
Riding the order flow
  • #1,940
  • Oct 26, 2011 1:38pm Oct 26, 2011 1:38pm
Quoting Binyamin
yeah price seems to respect M5 23EMA very well. I really wonder how Kostas or other traders discover these kind of things.... I assume it is through trial and error and recording results. Any idea?
I found it in one of his posts a couple of months ago. He said it was not his discovery.

I was going through his posts and attachments. I'd never done that before for Kostas. His posts only 18 months ago are like mine now - asking for help, guidance, direction, etc. It's very encouraging.

If you look at his attachments you can see all the charts he has posted. I did not realize that he trades EU ONLY! He NEVER trades any other pair! That is amazing, and just proves everything in the Dance manual! AND... he's doing it while he's holding down a full time job!

This can ABSOLUTELY be done, people!
Luck occurs when preparation meets with opportunity.
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