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  • #34,841
  • Oct 25, 2011 11:16am Oct 25, 2011 11:16am
Quoting stoleo
Just keep on charting
The aussie could be setting itself up for one crazy week. Tonight (some tomorrow) we have CPI, euro summit tomorrow, OIL inventories tomorrow, and usa data. This could go to 1.06 or somewhere else...good luck.
  • #34,842
  • Oct 25, 2011 11:47am Oct 25, 2011 11:47am
Quoting western
The aussie could be setting itself up for one crazy week. Tonight (some tomorrow) we have CPI, euro summit tomorrow, OIL inventories tomorrow, and usa data. This could go to 1.06 or somewhere else...good luck.

I think if the au can find support here, it might send a tone to tomorrow, meaning higher we go, as the trend is still in play. It seems everyone is short the market, going into tomorrow. That just means one thing. Not everyone can be right.
  • #34,843
  • Oct 25, 2011 1:55pm Oct 25, 2011 1:55pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0428

Well its D-day for Europe and its already turned into a disaster. Meetings canned but summit goes ahead.. Gold up $50..

Locally we have CPI mkt expectation 0.6pct - watch for a weaker number which could spark interest rate cut rumours.

Certainly there is something large holding up the Aussie either that or its a house of cards ready to collapse.

On the Kiwi that was a standout sell and hence AUD/NZD went north.

Good luck today
  • #34,844
  • Oct 25, 2011 2:54pm Oct 25, 2011 2:54pm
I am not looking for any DIP to buy AUDUSD. I believe it is very dangerous to go long with the Euro debt crisis D-Day approaching.

I will stay away atm.

Secondly, that 1.0500 is a strong resistance. Difficult to break that from here.

I would however go LONG if 1.0500 resistance level is broken for a target of 1.0650 initial then 1.0750 (sep 1 peak).
  • #34,845
  • Oct 25, 2011 3:00pm Oct 25, 2011 3:00pm
Quoting fx-rocket
In with a fresh new long @ 1.0461 targeting 1.0600, tight stop 1.0441
After moving my stop to 1.0421 I got stopped out of that one with a 40 pip loss...

Gone long Again @ 1.0434. Target 1.0600, stop 1.0404
Expect the unexpected.
  • #34,846
  • Edited 4:37pm Oct 25, 2011 3:26pm | Edited 4:37pm
AUD CPI in 2 hours.

But I believe it will be muted by the Euro Crisis.
Therefore, should CPI come out better than expected, AUDUSD will rally but I will sell after the spike with SL @ 1.0510 for a 1.0380 TP (or to price pre-spike). If the spike is small, the RR wont be attractive and I will not short - but flat.

PS. AUDUSD is currently bearish short term all thanks to Euro Crisis.


ADD: If CPI prints out lower than expected, then its going to drop back to 1.0380. Dont know if it will go back up though.
  • #34,847
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm
Quoting BurgerKing
AUD CPI in 2 hours.

But I believe it will be muted by the Euro Crisis.
Therefore, should CPI come out better than expected, AUDUSD will rally but I will sell after the spike with SL @ 1.0510 for a 1.0380 TP (or to price pre-spike). If the spike is small, the RR wont be attractive and I will not short - but flat.

PS. AUDUSD is currently bearish short term all thanks to Euro Crisis.


ADD: If CPI prints out lower than expected, then its going to drop back to 1.0380. Dont know if it will go back up though.
If the number is in favor of the aud, i think a 50 pip spike maybe, held down due to euro crisis. If the number dissapoints, this baby is going to get smashed i believe, as the last 2 days of trading has baked in a good number following the china data. A bad number I fully expect a 100 pip fall. I dont find this particular situation great to trade.....I would take urgerkings advice and wait until the smoke clears, see whats left. OR take a small position.
  • #34,848
  • Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm
And now the European summit is in question.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...79O03J20111025

Whats more is that they will be asking for soveriegn fund money to prop this financially crippled zone up.

I cant wait for the repercussions on this..
  • #34,849
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:27pm Oct 25, 2011 5:27pm
Quoting fx-rocket
After moving my stop to 1.0421 I got stopped out of that one with a 40 pip loss...

Gone long Again @ 1.0434. Target 1.0600, stop 1.0404
1.04 was strong support last night we had two 50+ pip bounces off it within the space of an hour. maybe moving your stop to just below that support level would be beneficial, so that if we bounce off it again you dont get stopped out

im by no means telling you what to do, but thats what i would do

edit: so much for that
  • #34,850
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:31pm Oct 25, 2011 5:31pm
Wow...All Day wait paid off.

  • #34,851
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:31pm Oct 25, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting taxe91
1.04 was strong support last night we had two 50+ pip bounces off it within the space of an hour. maybe moving your stop to just below that support level would be beneficial, so that if we bounce off it again you dont get stopped out

im by no means telling you what to do, but thats what i would do
wouldn't have made a difference... there was a sudden 60 pips movement downwards.. his SL would have been hit anyways
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,852
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:33pm Oct 25, 2011 5:33pm
no buying signal on my watch
  • #34,853
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:33pm Oct 25, 2011 5:33pm
Quoting Emanuel
no buying signal on my watch
no might strong chance for next week rate cut this week or next it will test parity
Mohan
  • #34,854
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:34pm Oct 25, 2011 5:34pm
Quoting taxe91
yep! i had actually re-entered short at 1.046 on that 30 second bullish spike we got about 10 minutes ago, so im stuck with 2 lots again.

not to sound greedy but im still bearish on the pair so will keep holding (SL moved to +5) probably overnight its overvalued at the moment in my opinion
1 lot closed at 1.0455 overnight. still holding short from 1.0462
  • #34,855
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:35pm Oct 25, 2011 5:35pm
There is definitely no BUY here.
but watch for the Support @ 1.0375.. see if it breaks or not.
If break, then down to 1.0260 we go..

unfortunate it was not better than expected or i'd be selling up top
  • #34,856
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:36pm Oct 25, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting mohan76
no might strong chance for next week rate cut this week or next i will next parity

Just like to know, If they cut the rate what will happen. Is it good for the currency or not.

Otherwise...if they cut the rate will Aud/usd go down.

Thanks.
KC.
  • #34,857
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:36pm Oct 25, 2011 5:36pm
Quoting Emanuel
no buying signal on my watch
you'd need massive balls to buy in these conditions
  • #34,858
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:37pm Oct 25, 2011 5:37pm
Quoting fx-rocket
After moving my stop to 1.0421 I got stopped out of that one with a 40 pip loss...

Gone long Again @ 1.0434. Target 1.0600, stop 1.0404
Lost another 30 pips there... Oh well...

In long again @ 1.0388 Target stilll 1.0600, stop 1.0348
Expect the unexpected.
  • #34,859
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:39pm Oct 25, 2011 5:39pm
Lets see how the economists work this one out..

The trimmed figure was a downer..

Market will no doubt soak up a few shorts

1.0350 needs to break for momentum to head back down


Seeing signal models have exited out of their longs..

RBA have scope to reduce rates..


Bears need to hang on for the big ride down below parity again..

Watch also for pressure to come on the AUD crosses.. they have been bid and with this they may want to dump them..
  • #34,860
  • Oct 25, 2011 5:39pm Oct 25, 2011 5:39pm
Quoting KCV
Just like to know, If they cut the rate what will happen. Is it good for the currency or not.

Otherwise...if they cut the rate will Aud/usd go down.

Thanks.
KC.

rate cut mean some fund in Aus bank may go out , bad for currency. bear will strong after 1:30 aus time
Mohan
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