The Really Useless Thread

ForexLive US wrap: Dumber for having watched markets all day..

By Jamie Coleman || October 25, 2011 at 20:38 GMT

 

1. Hopes for comprehensive EU package fade just a day ahead of summit
2. Merkel: Germany opposes section of EU draft supporting ECB continued non-standard measures from the ECB
3. Case Shiller home price index falls 3.8% year over year in August
4. BOC leaves rates unchanged; removes reference to eventual tighter monetary policy
5. French PM: French Banks need just EUR 10 bln in capital; can raise it privately
6. ECB’s Mersch: ECB can’t be used to expand EFSF
7. Finance Ministers cancel preliminary meeting ahead of EU summit Wednesday
8. US consumer confidence slides to 39.8 in Oct from 46.4 in Sep
9. USD/JPY falls to fresh record low of 75.73
10. Japanese says BOJ may announce more QE at Thursday’s meeting; JiJi says BOJ may intervene
11. Euro group’s Juncker: Expect final decision at tomorrow’s summit; sees final, ground-breaking deal
12. IMF may contribute to EFSF SPV
13. Norther League says has reached agreement with Berlusconi on reform; still pessimistic about government’s survival
14. S&P 500 falls 2% to 1229
15. US 10-year notes fall 12 bp in yield to 2.11%
16. WTI rises $1.60 to $92.88; gold leaps $50 to $1703

The more you watch this stuff, the less you learn. Conflicting statements. Rumors. Counter-rumors. Just silly, really.
The one thing we can take away from today’s session is that the odds of the euro group solving its problems tomorrow appear quite small indeed. Haircuts and EFS leverage amounts are not expected to be reached while many see agreement on bank recapitalization of only around EUR 100 bln being rubber stamped.
In other words, we wait in hope for the EU to fill in some very large, and important blanks.
Despite all this European uncertainty, the euro continues to perform exceedingly well. Heavy Mid-East buying was rumored again today, helping keep dips short-lived and limited. The vast bulk of the US session was spent well above 1.3900 today despite very negative sentiment toward the single currency.
Gold and Treasuries were better bet for risk-averse investors today as the dollar fair badly across the board. Traders fear a revival of QE3 before long.
CAD performed poorly today along with the dollar as the BOC dropped any pretense that it will tighten policy in the foreseeable future. From below 1.00 early in the day, we jumped as high as 1.0208 before stalling.
USD/JPY slumped to 75.73 this morning, another revived safe-haven, before pushing back up slightly on talk of more BOJ asset purchases (QE23) and on the potential for more intervention. JiJI reported that the BOJ was calling around to other central banks trying to convince them to join in a coordinated intervention. No word yet on weather their recruiting drive was successful.

lol.. PTL and I were talking earlier about that..

94.87 and 95.32... close enough lol

...not sure about that. Sarko keeps throwing a tantrum because his banks don't have the cash to spare them taking a big hit if Greece defaults, and so he doesn't like to hear Merk talking about letting the Greeks default.

And funny how Sarko's old friend Largarde turns up for the bash this week, hinting that she may open her purse - someone should remind her that to do so under current conditions would be contrary to the rules that govern the IMF mandate. (I think... I'll have to read up this again).

First on the TA. Agree 100% with your view. It will be naive to deny that extension after the last 3 days. Roll just close at 1.3907 which is technically still longs having the upper hand (above 1.3900) but is on the technicality mumbo jumbo as those few ticks are just too close and too compress to make a strong case.

On Italy, well they are paying the price of the horrendous political and technical mismanagement of the current EZ debt crisis more than real internal macroeconomic factors. Like it or not, Italy was not managing bad its budgets and debt in the last 3 years (plus debt repayments were "very healthy" for its size).

However, with all the cannons on debt holders pointing at whatever they can't to avoid losing their money, the bond markets has gotten out of control and the banking problems already are charging their toll. Without a clear solution things will get worse until it reach the point that politics and externalities make the real macro factor burst ...that will be the end of the EZ btw...

Agree on the criminals part...is a shame what we are witnessing, both in the EZ political side/macroeconomic mismanagement and in the debt holders and banks side. No shit they are people protesting about wall street and whatever (although for different reasons) they have make the markets a whore house and prostituted most trading instruments. Where is free markets? free flow of information? leadership? regulation when need it? ....shame really

sisse

Nope, Had a lot of heat on those ES shorts from yesterday so was pretty much tracking closely the ES. Was tempted to reload after reports (btw we match Lehman levels on that consumer confidence) but oil flying high made me chicken out to load some more....

sisse

Utter shame... used to regularly take a pop at the fundies on another thread, but as the mendacity of leadership became more apparent, I became so jaded that I stopped.

We all put our thoughts down differently, but all opinions are ultimately the same. Leadership today is rank with self-servings prigs.

P.S. Yes, I agree with your point regarding Italy.

6211 was a gbp st #.. a bigger formation say 6155.. but if oil fails.. this might be it.. it broke so it should be bullish normally. but it probably broke because if ecb crap. anti bs can turn this thing around. greece has the spotlight. but its the whole Mediterranean.. and the crap we are hearing about coming tomorrow will not solve a thing. they spend more then they make. tourism economies don't make more money by raising the cost of their hotel/food/attraction prices in a bad economy. these tourism economies are is a large buyer of German exports. save tomorrow and we will be back again and again. until throwing good money after bad hurts too much.

fundies be dammed, all swept aside by the overwhelming flood of usd liquidity washing over the old eurozone.

I have been reading up on the Fed's discount window lending practices and its is essentially: hey, we don't gotta tell you nothin. Discount window loans are reported 2 years after they occur...

During the '08 crisis Fed loans to foreign banks was around $16 trillion - sometimes in the 100's of $billions in a week. Loans were/are made through the DW to intermediary private firms - Wells Fargo, JPM, and the like - and then on to Dexia, etc. These are above and beyond the liquidity swap lines with ECB and other CB's.... (the big dogs collect hefty contract fees for this facilitation...)

News blurbs of Greeks lining up to get their money out of the Greek banks, so as to send them euros to Switzerland's....

Closing day here.

Let see what the EZ collage bring us tomorrow. There is also a plethora of reports too on the minors AUD/ NZD and CAD and all of them sitting in key levels...

sisse

bbl pendings set

looks like it was a good idea to go to bed +20 at ny open....

sleep is only for the weak ones...

lol. 1250 was called at work while those bastards were laughing at me.
can't wait to see those fuckers' faces tomorrow.

Wtf some sex pic's

the other ones were sexier...

Hope you don't mean the fat chick...

lol..

sh 3925,,

Ah, I guess were still bidding the feck out of this one huh.

til it disagrees.