Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1403 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,041
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:47am Oct 22, 2011 8:47am
Hmmh - sometimes I'm not able to make my message clear. Sorry for confusion. My post was not related to anything buma has posted in here in detail, nor to the person "buma".

It was just the strong feeling, that many of us are not really open minded.
We allow new opinions and views only to enter our mind, when it is alomost already in sync what we believe. Our "opend Mindness" is only marginal. Things that are not conform with our experiences (and perhaps what we have been tought) are degraded to "wrong" and impossible.

I have not had any special posting in mind. So I do not know what Buma has replied to your posting. Of course anyone is sometimes slightly "offtopic" or is not able to contribute anything substantial. And to give that as feedback to someone is very ok (at least for my understanding).
But as I have said above, that was not my point.

And my posting was not directed to anyone specific.
It was just an observation.
And it was true also for myself.

However - sorry for causing such a confusion!

Wish you all a great weekend!

Niels
  • #28,042
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:03am Oct 22, 2011 9:03am
To me is all clear like running waters.

mla

Inserted Video
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,043
  • Oct 22, 2011 9:44am Oct 22, 2011 9:44am
How very profound
  • #28,044
  • Oct 22, 2011 10:00am Oct 22, 2011 10:00am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I'm not sure whether my post is one of those to which you are referring but I felt his response to my comments were irrelevant, which is why I said what I did. His age is not the reason I found little value in his observations on human nature, but it's probably the reason he doesn't have enough knowledge to make them yet.


However, I wouldn't like anybody to think I was singling him out. There seems to be a trend among posters on this thread to try too hard to be profound with every post that they make. What's wrong with making clear, easy to...
  • #28,045
  • Edited 1:27pm Oct 22, 2011 10:48am | Edited 1:27pm
Quoting fti
The role of primary (forex) dealers in markets is to figure out the fair value of a currency, and only way figure that out is to juggle with demand and supply for said currency.ie matching buying and selling interest. No dealers want manipulate or speculate markets. They just trying find the equilibrium fair price( alos make cost for functioning). Worst enemies to that function are manipulators. Manipulation tend distort the whole picture always and create unnecessary volatility which is unpleasant for market users(speculators/investors) and international...
lets talk something about the markets!?!

i was thinking about this
lets see if i understand it:

Price eqilibrium is where smart/informed money meets "stuppid"/uninformed money.... Because we are suposed to follow the trend i understand the smart money follows the trend and stuppid money goes against it ...

dealers have to quickly sell what smart money sells to them and keep "stupid" money in their book... It reminds me about what Fti told about the snapbacks and in the quote above "making the cost for fuctioning"
My guess is the manipulators take the stuppid/counter trend side... Why?? Who are they?...I can only guess/fantasize.

But if what i said above is correct..... dealers have to keep their books flat (?) all of the time to manage the risk. and then they only collect the spread. i don't think that's enough to make the cost of functioning.

and why do manipulators create volatility???

i don't even know if what i write above makes sense.. so i'll stop my thinking and typing.
Fti said we have to get market structure right.. discuss or even fight about it ... i never realy understood it and not wanted to sound stuppid because it was not the topic at the time. i care less now

see if someone can comment/ help
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,046
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:08am Oct 22, 2011 11:08am
Quoting textor
My personal view about this topic, well nobody ask me about, but, you know...

It is very very easy to talk about the depths of being, open mind, and so on.
(the last time I checked it, you even don't have to finish the school for that)
Just use a couple of beautiful words. Smile. Look with mercy eyes. (Try it)
It sounds always good... It sounds always highly developed...
Everyone will love you.
Until you ask for some money, of course .....

You have to see those same people then in the market,
what they do with all their love when...
I take it that you don't like me
  • #28,047
  • Edited 3:22pm Oct 22, 2011 11:17am | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting j-pax
something about the markets!?!

i was thinking about this
lets see if i understand it:

Price eqilibrium is where smart money meets "stuppid" money.... Because we are suposed to follow the trend i understand the smart money follows the trend and stuppid money goes against it ...

dealers have to quickly buy back what smart money sells and keep "stupid" money in their book... It reminds me about what Fti told about the snapbacks.
My guess is the manipulators take the stuppid/counter trend side... Why?? Who are they?...I can only...

Volatility can be created by buyers and sellers having very different views on the instrument traded.
I don't like to worry about smart and stupid money too much.
One minute can be smart the next moment it all seems stupid in battle.

I just like to focus on fti's teaching and feel.
A lot of the other stuff I read here( including the stuff I post) seems like a mix of learning, goodwill or arrogance.
Rgds
  • #28,048
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:26am Oct 22, 2011 11:26am
Inserted Video


good nite folks!
  • #28,049
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:35am Oct 22, 2011 11:35am
Quoting jacson101
Volatility can be created by buyers and sellers having very different views on the instrument traded.
Maybe with High vol's, skew out, look to keep book marks close to MKT, or maybe go slightly higher timeframe in.

Dealing is not our job. Our job is to collect.
And managing risk is done by both smart and stupid.
I don't like to worry about smart and stupid money too much.
One minute can be smart the next moment it all seems stupid in battle.


I just like to focus on fti's teaching and feel.
A lot of the other stuff I read here seems like a...
i did not specify smart and stuppid.. smart money i consider financial intitutions. they need to profit from trading.. "stupid" i consider corporate customers they need to trade to pay foreign workers. i know this is way to simple but you get my point.

Fti talks much about manipulation and said it causes volitility... and i like to know what it means.

and last market structure is part of the lessons. i want to understand

i also read A lot of the other stuff I read here seems like a mix of learning, goodwill or arrogance. i like learning/ goodwill and don't mind arrogance..

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,050
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:37am Oct 22, 2011 11:37am
Quoting j-pax
lets talk something about the markets!?!
------
Fti said we have to get market structure right.. discuss or even fight about it ... i never realy understood it and not wanted to sound stuppid because it was not the topic at the time. i care less now

see if someone can comment/ help
My understanding: market structure explains why it is a bad idea to have stop loss and good idea to trade the bias of the daily trend, although being short term traders we should still dance the daylight trend (intraday charts don't always agree with the daily chart and any change always start in a smaller time frame so it's up to us to design our strategies to handle these situations - be nimble or stay out, etc.)

Example: In a bear trend the market makes the dealer long since he takes the opposite side of sellers. He can choose to sell back to back thus enforcing the trend, or he can decide to "take the punch", i.e. build up his inventory of long as his averages become better and better, provided his book is large enough. At some point profit taking or stops (ducks) or large limit sells above the market become the catalyst for retrace, and when price meets the large orders above, bang! the dealer off loads his inventory and starts selling back to back again, causing rubber band snap back, in the direction of the larger trend.

I have also hoped people would discuss or fight about it, now I am taking the first bait, accepting I might be wrong or stupid.

Rgs,
Baifu
  • #28,051
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:45am Oct 22, 2011 11:45am
Quoting j-pax

and why do manipulators create volatility???

i don't even know if what i write above makes sense.. so i'll stop my thinking and typing.
Fti said we have to get market structure right.. discuss or even fight about it ... i never realy understood it and not wanted to sound stuppid because it was not the topic at the time. i care less now

see if someone can comment/ help
Don't worry j-pax, i'm pretty sure you are not alone... there's still me

Anyway, i'm guess is that to be able to manipulate the market, one needs to have very substantial capital.... so it would be someone like the CBs?

I have no idea if I am right or wrong... perhaps someone senior here would care to comment.
  • #28,052
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:45am Oct 22, 2011 11:45am
Been a while since I last wrote here. So my little bit of contribution

Inserted Video
  • #28,053
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:50am Oct 22, 2011 11:50am
Quoting Baifu
My understanding: market structure explains why it is a bad idea to have stop loss and good idea to trade the bias of the daily trend, although being short term traders we should still dance the daylight trend (intraday charts don't always agree with the daily chart and any change always start in a smaller time frame so it's up to us to design our strategies to handle these situations - be nimble or stay out, etc.)

Example: In a bear trend the market makes the dealer long since he takes the opposite side of sellers. He can choose to sell...
Hi Baifu,
I always thought that this is the MO under normal market conditions, hence that is why we are able to dance to the rhythm and profit from it.

I would suppose that fti is referring to something else when he mention manipulation of market..

I think we could lend the help of some gurus here

Regards
n
  • #28,054
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:54am Oct 22, 2011 11:54am
Quoting Setebos
Been a while since I last wrote here. So my little bit of contribution

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR6oYX1D-0w
the word "dollar" was mentioned 126 times.. lol. Thks for sharing.
  • #28,055
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:55am Oct 22, 2011 11:55am
Quoting j-pax
i did not specify smart and stuppid.. smart money i consider financial intitutions. they need to profit from trading.. "stupid" i consider corporate customers they need to trade to pay foreign workers. i know this is way to simple but you get my point.

Fti talks much about manipulation and said it causes volitility... and i like to know what it means.

and last market structure is part of the lessons. i want to understand

i also read A lot of the other stuff I read here seems like a mix of learning, goodwill or arrogance. i like learning/...
I just told you, please take more than a moment on what I've said.

In low volatility:
buyer==seller, with a bank in between.
In high volatility:
buyer=========seller, with a bank in between.

Banks, speculators, corps each has a different operating MO.
Banks its making a market, for speculators it's to guess, and for corps. it's business activiity.

Rgds
  • #28,056
  • Oct 22, 2011 11:56am Oct 22, 2011 11:56am
Quoting Baifu
My understanding: market structure explains why it is a bad idea to have stop loss and good idea to trade the bias of the daily trend, although being short term traders we should still dance the daylight trend (intraday charts don't always agree with the daily chart and any change always start in a smaller time frame so it's up to us to design our strategies to handle these situations - be nimble or stay out, etc.)

Example: In a bear trend the market makes the dealer long since he takes the opposite side of sellers. He can choose to sell...
yes Baifu i agree with your example. the dealers let the long position build in a short trend and unload them when the trend resumes...
and a short position in a short trend will be short lived?? i think.

i said it in a very complecated way......
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,057
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:06pm Oct 22, 2011 12:06pm
Quoting N_Trader
Hi Baifu,
I always thought that this is the MO under normal market conditions, hence that is why we are able to dance to the rhythm and profit from it.

I would suppose that fti is referring to something else when he mention manipulation of market..

I think we could lend the help of some gurus here

Regards
n
Agreed, I was responding to Pax's quote of an early fti post about market structure, where fti said understanding this is so important we should discuss even fight over it, while you are probably referring to this recent post:

"the markets are now being manipulated, by vested interest.
Doing what they believe is the best by holding prices up.
Also because is to their advantage , as the markets are very very short expecting unfortunate outcome. Also believing that the managing of the usd is not in any better state of affairs.
This is good , if peeps manage find a respectable solution to the fiasco.
But if they fail, then the killing vacuum drop will make much blood on the street.
The greece situation seem very real and inevitable. So put on your seat belts , just in case.
Usd calls had become very expensive, so many are aligned for bad news.
To me, is no issue what drives the markets.more whats the behaviour and whats happening in the NOW. As always peeps have opinions and they tend like stand ground. Lets hope its not shifting sand. Stable price equilibrium is more condusive for managing exposures than bias. I have no positions at the moment, may decide pick up pieces of meat as situation unfolds. But my health not allow me long stretched battles , so all depends on the winds."

I guess we can form our opinions of who these vested interests are, .....

rgs,
Baifu
  • #28,058
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:10pm Oct 22, 2011 12:10pm
Quoting j-pax
yes Baifu i agree with your example. the dealers let the long position build in a short trend and unload them when the trend resumes...
and a short position in a short trend will be short lived?? i think.

i said it in a very complecated way......
No you said the first half in a very elegant way, as to the last half - even with my ears open I cannot hear everything

rgs,
Baifu
  • #28,059
  • Oct 22, 2011 12:11pm Oct 22, 2011 12:11pm
OK then, music already played, now some trading told.

Inserted Video
  • #28,060
  • Edited 12:24pm Oct 22, 2011 12:13pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting j-pax
lets talk something about the markets!?!

i was thinking about this
lets see if i understand it:

Price eqilibrium is where smart money meets "stuppid" money.... Because we are suposed to follow the trend i understand the smart money follows the trend and stuppid money goes against it ...

dealers have to quickly buy back what smart money sells and keep "stupid" money in their book... It reminds me about what Fti told about the snapbacks and in the quote above "making the cost for fuctioning"
My guess is the manipulators take the stuppid/counter...
I thought volatility is the result of market ineffiency ? But to me no volatility = no profits.

besides you mention manipulators, sound like some kind to conspiracy theory to me. Usually it is a good excuse to explain away market movements we cannot understand. Although its really more of an aspect of how markets function. I am not educated enough to elaborate on that.

And you said smart money follow trends and stupid money dont. I dont agree with your definition either. Smart money knows infomation that will affect the market outcome, stupid money thinks they know the outcome but they dont.. Its a information game.

Read up on Lyons's papers and book. Its should answer some of your questions. Might be too academic though, at least it is for me, but still insightful.

regards

edit : I just realized that you are reffering to the "manipulation" specifed by fti. Hmm, then its really hard to guess. He got friends and tons of experience behind him, so who knows whats he got....or maybe he just concluded based off information that we have access to also ?
15 traders viewing now