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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #28,001
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:08pm Oct 21, 2011 4:08pm
Quoting mario83
Have a nice relaxing weekend FTI! I did win this battle, closed with small profit and really can relax during the weekend now. My small victory was your another success, because its you who put so much effort to teach us how to deal with the market and deal with difficult situation.


Much much appreciated for your work. All the best!
  • #28,002
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:32pm Oct 21, 2011 4:32pm
Fti

You will not make money long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or not uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then either you haven't yet found your style or yourself.

The best trades are made without thinking, when you surpass the concepts, the knowledge and you reach the subconscious, where creativity and instincts lays and connects you to Greater Energy. Once you there you flow, there is not contraction but only expansion to enter the doctrine of vibration. Yes, trading is very much knowing yourself and the realisation of one helps the other.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,003
  • Edited 5:02pm Oct 21, 2011 4:36pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting j-pax
Hello Fti,

first of all i hope your health is steady... that comes first. so read this when you have good energy and are curious. ignore it when you need. i understand !!

i found and read a Norway CB working paper and was thinking there where some interesting things that changed after the release of the NY-FED workingpaper you recommendend on marketstructure.
i believe this paper is seriously made and consider it reliable by looking at the sources they use
... yesterday i just picked a statistic that amazed me, related to the dealers-laid...
ai ya please not get hurt feelings.
The reason why i asked you about banks function is because the main function of a bank is not trade foreign exchange although they are primary dealers of the forex markets.

The main function of a bank is as custodian to the depositor who had placed their life saving in their care. So in banking they have to lend money out so that depositors can have some returns on their deposit as goodwill for their trust. So if banks need lend out money, they are exposed to risk of borrower defaults. So the bigger the bank, the more they are exposed to the credit risk amongst other risk.

The role of primary (forex) dealers in markets is to figure out the fair value of a currency, and only way figure that out is to juggle with demand and supply for said currency.ie matching buying and selling interest. No dealers want manipulate or speculate markets. They just trying find the equilibrium fair price( alos make cost for functioning). Worst enemies to that function are manipulators. Manipulation tend distort the whole picture always and create unnecessary volatility which is unpleasant for market users(speculators/investors) and international trade alike.

regards
  • #28,004
  • Edited Oct 22, 2011 12:57am Oct 21, 2011 4:38pm | Edited Oct 22, 2011 12:57am
Quoting mla
Fti

You will not make money long term until you know enough about your personality to find a trading style that is compatible. You need to follow your rules comfortably, allowing you to enter and exit trades with minimal or not uncertainty or anxiety. Once you have mastered a method of trading, if you feel stress while trading, then either you haven't yet found your style or yourself.

The best trades are made without thinking, when you surpass the concepts, the knowledge and you reach the subconscious, where creativity and instincts lays...
huh? you teaching me?
oh ok. agreed.

But the thingy about rules? Rules tend make one rigid. Guidelines maybe. I prefer nimbleness and discipline. And no put crazy lines on your chart.




regards
  • #28,005
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:47pm Oct 21, 2011 4:47pm
Quoting fti
huh? you teaching me?
oh ok. agreed.

regards
I would no dare teaching you. I give you more:

"A human being has the freedom to become anything. By his own power he can make his life sublime or wretched. By his own power he can reach the heavens or descend to the depths. In fact, the power of human being is so great that he can even transform himself into God. God lies hidden in the heart of every human being , and everyone has the power to realise that".

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,006
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:52pm Oct 21, 2011 4:52pm
Quoting mla
I would no dare teaching you. I give you more:

"A human being has the freedom to become anything. By his own power he can make his life sublime or wretched. By his own power he can reach the heavens or descend to the depths. In fact, the power of human being is so great that he can even transform himself into God. God lies hidden in the heart of every human being , and everyone has the power to realise that".

mla
I not know if he's hiding anywhere.
He seem all around us. Everywhere and in everything.
But one thing i know, the love and affection he has for me, keeps me from hammering my head on to the walls of deception always.
I not believe anyone can transform into God. We are too sinful.

regards
  • #28,007
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:53pm Oct 21, 2011 4:53pm
Quoting fti
ai ya please not get hurt feelings.
The reason why i asked you about banks function is because the main function of a bank is not trade foreign exchange although they are primary dealers of the forex markets.

The main function of a bank is as custodian to the depositor who had placed their life saving in their care. So in banking they have to lend money out so that depositors can have some returns on their deposit as goodwill for their trust. So if banks need lend out money, they are exposed to risk of borrower defaults. So the bigger the bank,...
no bad feelings, and i will read your response tommorow... i am in no state to understand what you said... listening to herbie hancock now!!

good weekend sir and to all

Inserted Video


edit: if you like this .. i espessialy like the interaction between guitar and organ (herbie) genius
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,008
  • Oct 21, 2011 4:58pm Oct 21, 2011 4:58pm
Quoting fti
I not know if he's hiding anywhere.
He seem all around us. Everywhere and in everything.
But one thing i know, the love and affection he has for me, keeps me from hammering my head on to the walls of deception mostly.
I not believe anyone can transform into God. We are too sinful.

regards
I see...

Nothing perceived is independent of perception, and perception differ not from the perceiver; therefore the (perceived) universe is nothing but the perceiver.

mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,009
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:10pm Oct 21, 2011 5:10pm
Quoting mla
I see...

Nothing perceived is independent of perception, and perception differ not from the perceiver; therefore the (perceived) universe is nothing but the perceiver.

mla
i beg differ my friend.
The universe is much much more than that percieved. Our ability of perception is limited to our 5 senses( in fact i believe we have more than 5 senses, but that another story).And we only percieve that which we can, thru these senses. There is much much more.Only we are no wiser about it.

but agreed, like a fish we can only percieve that which surrounds us.

regards
  • #28,010
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:25pm Oct 21, 2011 5:25pm
Quoting fti
i beg differ my friend.
The universe is much much more than that percieved. Our ability of perception is limited to our 5 senses( in fact i believe we have more than 5 senses, but that another story).And we only percieve that which we can, thru these senses. There is much much more.Only we are no wiser about it.

regards
Some people are wiser than others and perceive more then others, because they place themselves in that position and follow their true inclination.

Like plants that bend towards the sun, the mind is naturally attracted to the Truth. It want to know the Truth, It wants to experience the Truth's love.
It want to rest in its own nature. The mind want to relish its own nectar. That is its organic inclinations.


All The Best
mla
"The Heart is the hub of all dances; go there and chill out"
  • #28,011
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:31pm Oct 21, 2011 5:31pm
Quoting fti
i beg differ my friend.
The universe is much much more than that percieved. Our ability of perception is limited to our 5 senses( in fact i believe we have more than 5 senses, but that another story).And we only percieve that which we can, thru these senses. There is much much more.Only we are no wiser about it.

but agreed, like a fish we can only percieve that which surrounds us.

regards
well put fti!
How are your feeling? Any improvements??
Thanks,
  • #28,012
  • Edited 8:03pm Oct 21, 2011 5:31pm | Edited 8:03pm
Quoting j-pax
no bad feelings, and i will read your response tommorow... i am in no state to understand what you said... listening to herbie hancock now!!

good weekend sir and to all

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcZ5NNuPq-c

edit: if you like this .. i espessialy like the interaction between guitar and organ (herbie) genius
Try this, you may like the chatty between the two guitars.
Inserted Video

Inserted Video


for me i really fancy this one.
Inserted Video
  • #28,013
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:59pm Oct 21, 2011 5:59pm
Are we in philosophy class?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDEOpKwGljg
  • #28,014
  • Oct 21, 2011 6:04pm Oct 21, 2011 6:04pm
Quoting fti
Try this, you may like the chatty between the two guitars.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI-sMNpQYHQ

for me i really fancy this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iir4SjlLXi0
@M-H trader... music or philosophy class ....it is weekend now!?!??

great music fti! ..i like americana much
Inserted Video


i wanted to post waltzing matilda by tom waits but i'll post my favorite from him to finish the week. foreign affair i think it's apropriate.

Inserted Video


pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #28,015
  • Oct 21, 2011 7:17pm Oct 21, 2011 7:17pm
Quoting fti
what things?
What kind of things?

ai ya, they like tickle boj on friday disco night.
be careful get pragnant.

regards
Disco Night

Inserted Video
  • #28,016
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:20pm Oct 21, 2011 8:20pm
Quoting jacson101
Disco Night

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2OEZ...eature=related
jac

Inserted Video


Inserted Video


regards
  • #28,017
  • Oct 21, 2011 8:43pm Oct 21, 2011 8:43pm
Quoting fti
i beg differ my friend.
The universe is much much more than that percieved. Our ability of perception is limited to our 5 senses( in fact i believe we have more than 5 senses, but that another story).And we only percieve that which we can, thru these senses. There is much much more.Only we are no wiser about it.

but agreed, like a fish we can only percieve that which surrounds us.

regards

Now this is a discussion i am interested in! I would very much be interested
in hearing about our "other senses".

I have a strong belief in the power of the mind. So this is right up my alley.

Fti, if you would prefer not to express your thoughts here I would appreciate a PM or email on your thoughts regarding this.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #28,018
  • Oct 21, 2011 9:55pm Oct 21, 2011 9:55pm
Hi Fti,

qianmianjigehuidataihaole.duoxieduoxie.

I have made made it to page 16 of your thread. Time well spent. Many thanks.

Now onto business...

If you had to give greater weight to one or the other, would it be commerce or speculation that is the primary driver of price action?

Me'n some other qingdizhiwa, have been sitting at the bottom of our well watching shadows (ie PA) and trying to determine the nature of the beast that is casting them.

One argument says the trend on the daily chart is mostly driven by speculation. The other argument says that the trend is driven by commerce.

Where do you stand? Or not stand?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #28,019
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:16pm Oct 21, 2011 10:16pm
Quoting j-pax
@M-H trader... music or philosophy class ....it is weekend now!?!??

great music fti! ..i like americana much
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDA70...eature=related

i wanted to post waltzing matilda by tom waits but i'll post my favorite from him to finish the week. foreign affair i think it's apropriate.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aj8JG8LcgRo

pax
nice , foreign affairs

regards
  • #28,020
  • Edited 11:05pm Oct 21, 2011 10:32pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting AaronWard
Hi Fti,

qianmianjigehuidataihaole.duoxieduoxie.

I have made made it to page 16 of your thread. Time well spent. Many thanks.

Now onto business...

If you had to give greater weight to one or the other, would it be commerce or speculation that is the primary driver of price action?

Me'n some other qingdizhiwa, have been sitting at the bottom of our well watching shadows (ie PA) and trying to determine the nature of the beast that is casting them.

One argument says the trend on the daily chart is mostly driven by speculation....
mian tou li, min bai jui hao le.
bu xie.

the markets are now being manipulated, by vested interest.
Doing what they believe is the best by holding prices up.
Also because is to their advantage , as the markets are very very short expecting unfortunate outcome. Also believing that the managing of the usd is not in any better state of affairs.

This is good , if peeps manage find a respectable solution to the fiasco.
But if they fail, then the killing vacuum drop will make much blood on the street.
The greece situation seem very real and inevitable. So put on your seat belts , just in case.
Usd calls had become very expensive, so many are aligned for bad news.

To me, is no issue what drives the markets.more whats the behaviour and whats happening in the NOW. As always peeps have opinions and they tend like stand ground. Lets hope its not shifting sand. Stable price equilibrium is more condusive for managing exposures than bias. I have no positions at the moment, may decide pick up pieces of meat as situation unfolds. But my health not allow me long stretched battles , so all depends on the winds.

If you need be long usd, then is safer to be long against the yen, boj have some billions in standby, so will not have too drastic a vacuum. But is safest have right winged dropped butterflies. Then at least , more holes covered. If need be short euros then , prudent use the cable (stg) as safe vacuum exhaust, just in case. Whatever strategies adopted, is best if trigger finger is not stiff , when things begins flying about.

you feng da chuan zui hao.

regards
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