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The Really Useless Thread

  • #26,601
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:52pm Oct 18, 2011 9:52pm
Quoting The Fool
great time to be a farmer with water in the gound
On average, you need a quarter inch of water a day to grow alfalfa. Over a 4 cut growing season, that's 3 acre feet of water from rain or the ground. That produces around 4 tons without fertilizer, maybe 8 tons with management. At current prices, that's 1000 to 2000 an acre, because of the drought. That means an acre foot out of the ground is worth between 300 to 700 in gross product.

If the drought is secular, as many models are indicating because of La Nina persisting due to Pacific water temperatures, water and the land above it, not gold, not the EUR, is the best thing you can own.
  • #26,602
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:02pm Oct 18, 2011 10:02pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
Funny how some markets are inefficient like that. I agree with you bro, seems like food inflation is going to be an issue soon, and not only in less developed countries.
It's because it's one layer removed from final product. The CME cattle price sets the price (on basis) at the local auction in Bumfeck TX. The CBOT corn price sets the elevator rates (on basis) in Donwannabein, NC.

But what it costs to feed the cows or produce the milk, that's too complex. The cattlemen know; they need 16 lbs of grass or 10 lbs of corn to put on one pound on range beef. So they know their break even, and that's why the cattle are all going to slaughter. But outside their business, not so much.
  • #26,603
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:08pm Oct 18, 2011 10:08pm
Holy shit OQ.... you know a ton about farming...
I know who Im callin if shit hits the fan and I gotta start growin my own stock and feed

If not Im def gonna turn into a cannibal... and thats not cool
  • #26,604
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:09pm Oct 18, 2011 10:09pm
Quoting OldQuant
It's because it's one layer removed from final product. The CME cattle price sets the price (on basis) at the local auction in Bumfeck TX. The CBOT corn price sets the elevator rates (on basis) in Donwannabein, NC.

But what it costs to feed the cows or produce the milk, that's too complex. The cattlemen know; they need 16 lbs of grass or 10 lbs of corn to put on one pound on range beef. So they know their break even, and that's why the cattle are all going to slaughter. But outside their business, not so much.
Makes perfect sense.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,605
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:12pm Oct 18, 2011 10:12pm
Quoting OldQuant
The CME cattle price sets the price (on basis) at the local auction in Bumfeck TX.
Not available on google maps...is this near Saskatchewan?

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #26,606
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:15pm Oct 18, 2011 10:15pm
Quoting OldQuant
It's because...
say what have you been doing in chopper as of late, this bounce has been kinda weak if you ask me...any thoughts?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,607
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
say what have you been doing in chopper as of late, this bounce has been kinda weak if you ask me...any thoughts?
Im still seein copper droppin to 2.35$/lb at least... jmo
  • #26,608
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm
Quoting Wulfgar
If not Im def gonna turn into a cannibal... and thats not cool
Ask fxjawn about the name of the grill at the student union at CU Boulder. I don't remember its name (I think it might be Packer?), but he should know the story behind it.

I'm going to bed. This bu11shit move is whacking Flipper in each twitch up, to the tune of a couple pips each time. If I stay up I'd just take it off line, just in time for the move to 40 and/or 36. So I can't watch.
  • #26,609
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:24pm Oct 18, 2011 10:24pm
Quoting OldQuant
The cattlemen know; they need 16 lbs of grass or 10 lbs of corn to put on one pound on range beef.
get off the high meat diet and we could feed the nation off the best land on grain and soy and give the rest back to the buffalo and antelope
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #26,610
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:25pm Oct 18, 2011 10:25pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
say what have you been doing in chopper as of late, this bounce has been kinda weak if you ask me...any thoughts?
I got my short of above 40, like I'd planned last week. Bit of drawdown, but I'm still pretty fundamentally bearish, so its stop is a fair ways north.

And if it stops out, just wait and do it again at a higher plateau. Maybe it'll become a hobby. A very expensive hobby.
  • #26,611
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:28pm Oct 18, 2011 10:28pm
Quoting OldQuant
I got my short of above 40, like I'd planned last week. Bit of drawdown, but I'm still pretty fundamentally bearish, so its stop is a fair ways north.

And if it stops out, just wait and do it again at a higher plateau. Maybe it'll become a hobby. A very expensive hobby.
looks heavy...say whats your spread right now, thanks...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,612
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:33pm Oct 18, 2011 10:33pm
testing R1...bastard...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,613
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:34pm Oct 18, 2011 10:34pm
Quoting The Fool
get off the high meat diet and we could feed the nation off the best land on grain and soy and give the rest back to the buffalo and antelope
You know about the whole "Buffalo Commons" thing? Bunch of easterners have been proposing for years that the gov't buy back the plains, re-introduce the native grasses, bison, antelopes and attendant predators. (I once proposed during a dinner conversation that the Native Americans required could be supplied by Disney in long-term contracts. They didn't see the sarcasm and I shut up.)

Problem is: first there was gold there. Then there was meat and grains there. And now there's oil and water there.

But seriously, if they stopped wasting corn for bio fuel, and did cut down on the land and calories needed for cattle meat production, sufficient wheat, soy, corn, hogs and chickens could be produced on a fraction of the land.
  • #26,614
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:35pm Oct 18, 2011 10:35pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
looks heavy...say whats your spread right now, thanks...
What spread you talking about?

EUR was just 250/255. Futures/cash EUR is 6.5 under.
  • #26,615
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:37pm Oct 18, 2011 10:37pm
Quoting OldQuant
What spread you talking about?
front month, Z is it, how wide is your bid/offer?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,616
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:39pm Oct 18, 2011 10:39pm
nice run... closing here.. waiting for dax...

toilet quality time...
  • #26,617
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:44pm Oct 18, 2011 10:44pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
front month, Z is it, how wide is your bid/offer?
HGX is staying .001 (like 3.3305/3.3315 right now). So that's $25 per contract. But it's light this time of night. Just checked Z; it's about the same; some instances .0005, but mostly not.
  • #26,618
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:47pm Oct 18, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting OldQuant
HGX is staying .001 (like 3.3305/3.3315 right now). So that's $25 per contract. But it's light this time of night. Just checked Z; it's about the same; some instances .0005, but mostly not.
thanks bro, still a decent market, considering its moves, might spin a few intraday today for old times sake...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,619
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:50pm Oct 18, 2011 10:50pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
thanks bro, still a decent market, considering its moves, might spin a few intraday today for old times sake...
Put some charts up; you can play the AUD moves pretty well off of it, too.

Very chart-y market, by the way. And limits inside the spread generally will fill.

GL. Gotta go to bed.
  • #26,620
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:51pm Oct 18, 2011 10:51pm
lets go u frankie bastards....
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