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The Really Useless Thread

  • #26,581
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:25pm Oct 18, 2011 10:25pm
Fool, I agree. All it's going to take for the Short Attention Span generation of money managers is to focus on some other shenanigans.

But in the meantime, the bastards nearly got Flip faked out on this one. Breach of envelope downside, but not be quite enough (bolded numbers on xl sheet have to be at least -5.0; didn't make it).

Doing it live, I'd never have had the balls to not cover it, just at exactly the wrong time. If the software had been faked, it would have rolled right back, but could have lost 5 or more up that spike.
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  • #26,582
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:27pm Oct 18, 2011 10:27pm
Quoting pkimnyc
world peace?
is it coming to end? lolz
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #26,583
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:31pm Oct 18, 2011 10:31pm
Quoting OldQuant
Rolled short at 67, where that choppy olive line leaves the envelope to the downside by 5 metric units. That long went on at 32. Then, on the right, a few minutes ago, back to long at 71.5. By the time I'm done writing this, it might have flipped short again; hence the name.

The point about automatics is, they can give you little hits all the time in chop of just the wrong frequency; they can accumulate to a fair number over a couple hours. But when it goes out the next time, you get it back. Like in this case, it can withstand maybe 7...
Triggers on the #1's or the #2's?
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #26,584
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:44pm Oct 18, 2011 10:44pm
Quoting donfriday
is it coming to end? lolz
have some faith in bastards.
  • #26,585
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:45pm Oct 18, 2011 10:45pm
morning...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,586
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:46pm Oct 18, 2011 10:46pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
morning...
bastard...
  • #26,587
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:47pm Oct 18, 2011 10:47pm
Quoting pkimnyc
bastard...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,588
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:51pm Oct 18, 2011 10:51pm
Quoting Magix
Triggers on the #1's or the #2's?
The two's. And just a little to the right of your lines, after the olive line leaves the envelope by a bit. The scale is different; the envelope isn't in price; Excel just superimposes them, and you read the scale on the right axis. The envelope's metric really doesn't even know what the price level is. (BTW, I believe its overall level is a big size/small size "overbought/sold" indicator, but that's not well baked at this point.)

The right axis is clipped off on the chart you used, but it's on one a couple pages up.
  • #26,589
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:59pm Oct 18, 2011 10:59pm
Quoting pkimnyc
have some faith in bastards.
see?
  • #26,590
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:00pm Oct 18, 2011 11:00pm
this bastard is catching a bid, looks as if a test of the monthly mid might be in the works...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,591
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:04pm Oct 18, 2011 11:04pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
this bastard is catching a bid, looks as if a test of the monthly mid might be in the works...
or this?
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  • #26,592
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:14pm Oct 18, 2011 11:14pm
Quoting pkimnyc
or this?
yea I have a level at 3820, which is the mid of that second down bar, capped the spike yesterday, 3829 is also DR1 today...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,593
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:17pm Oct 18, 2011 11:17pm
Quoting pkimnyc
or this?
one more I am making a note of is 3764, the close of big spike, if we closed below that again, I could argue for the bastards having lost their bid..
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  • #26,594
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:19pm Oct 18, 2011 11:19pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
one more I am making a note of is 3764, the close of big spike, if we closed below that again, I could argue for the bastards having lost their bid..
i agree.
  • #26,595
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:24pm Oct 18, 2011 11:24pm
3787 is the mid of last hour...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #26,596
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:30pm Oct 18, 2011 11:30pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
morning...
Hey, remember a while back I said the arbitrage of the year was alfalfa between Minn. and the south? Well, right now, the horse people are paying $20 for a 50 lb bale in TX. Forty cents a pound, $800 a ton. In July, Minn alfalfa was $140 a ton. It's currently still a lot less than that retail price.

Today I talked to a big operation in Idaho. They have none for sale; what they have is going to their dairy contracts, at around $250 FOB there. And shipping to some of them is almost that amount in addition.

Here's what's upside down about this. Grass forage is selling for over a dime a pound. Corn and wheat are selling for less. Now, the regional arb is going to be corn stalks for forage/corn meal for calories. Less than regular hay in many places.

That is. just. nuts. And I don't mean peanuts; there's none of those, either. Peanut butter is going to nearly double by spring: some majors announced almost 50% pending increases this week.

When all these dislocations hit the retail food prices in a short while, look out.
  • #26,597
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:36pm Oct 18, 2011 11:36pm
Quoting OldQuant

That is. just. nuts. And I don't mean peanuts; there's none of those, either. Peanut butter is going to nearly double by spring: some majors announced almost 50% pending increases this week.
The wife loaded up on peanut butter already, she ain't taking any chances...We don't even eat that shit, but like to keep our options open at reasonable prices...

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #26,598
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:36pm Oct 18, 2011 11:36pm
great time to be a farmer with water in the gound
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #26,599
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:42pm Oct 18, 2011 11:42pm
Im movin to tibet
  • #26,600
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:45pm Oct 18, 2011 11:45pm
Quoting OldQuant
Hey, remember a while back I said the arbitrage of the year was alfalfa between Minn. and the south? Well, right now, the horse people are paying $20 for a 50 lb bale in TX. Forty cents a pound, $800 a ton. In July, Minn alfalfa was $140 a ton. It's currently still a lot less than that retail price.

Today I talked to a big operation in Idaho. They have none for sale; what they have is going to their dairy contracts, at around $250 FOB there. And shipping to some of them is almost that amount in addition.

Here's what's upside down about...
Funny how some markets are inefficient like that. I agree with you bro, seems like food inflation is going to be an issue soon, and not only in less developed countries.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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