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  • #34,621
  • Oct 18, 2011 5:06pm Oct 18, 2011 5:06pm
From Forbes...

http://www.forbes.com/sites/afonteve...nd-70-of-jobs/

Yes I sound like a broken record and Im short but with this stuff a strong possibility would I be placed any other way..
  • #34,622
  • Oct 18, 2011 5:15pm Oct 18, 2011 5:15pm
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-...dist=afterbell

And now they deny a deal has been struck..

Oh dear...
  • #34,623
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:08pm Oct 18, 2011 6:08pm
Resistance @ 1.0230 is broken. I guess its bull run again.

Im at the sideline waiting for more confirmation.
  • #34,624
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:10pm Oct 18, 2011 6:10pm
the majority of ppl seem to be short so if we ho with the assumption that the majority is wrong there is upside to this pair and eur/usd still...
  • #34,625
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:11pm Oct 18, 2011 6:11pm
everyone is trying to fade the rally and keeps gettig stopped out feeling the small rallys, until some MAJOR news comes outta europe, heh like todays rumor we will keep doing this...
  • #34,626
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:17pm Oct 18, 2011 6:17pm
Quoting staffpro
everyone is trying to fade the rally and keeps gettig stopped out feeling the small rallys, until some MAJOR news comes outta europe, heh like todays rumor we will keep doing this...
I have to agree with this. Looking at a 4h chart we're still in a strong uptrend and I'll continue looking for longs until the swing low of 1.0100 gets broken.
  • #34,627
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:19pm Oct 18, 2011 6:19pm
SSI Chart as of Tuesday, 18 October 2011 17:00 GMT

AUDUSD is bullish in this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34,628
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:36pm Oct 18, 2011 6:36pm
4hr 200sma providing support and Daily 200sma giving resistance here with some interesting confluence of fib's with some similarities of or last visit to this area....

Appears we will retest the 32.6/1.014 again.. Have indicated possible targets both bull and bear.. and may take a short here and see what happens with 77.00 seaming to be good support for Us index for now.. And waiting for some reaction from DP @ 1.0234

Two of my shorts nock out on earler spike...And Very nice Mr. Petra on a job well done

GL
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: audaily1018.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #34,629
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:45pm Oct 18, 2011 6:45pm
Broken 4hr channel but I think shes in some sort of pickel...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34,630
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:55pm Oct 18, 2011 6:55pm
Ok ..one more were also at 50% from last major bear move..I'd say thats a biggie..
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  • #34,631
  • Edited 8:44pm Oct 18, 2011 7:57pm | Edited 8:44pm
I'd watch out for Daily MACD; once it hits red (crossover), I'd be selling.
Daily MACD is very accurate for Risk and Commoditiy pairs like AUDUSD, EURUSD, USDCAD to name a few. But suck for JPY pairs.

The only thing Im not liking is the fact that SSI (a few post above) is showing lots of traders SHORT AUDUSD which implies more uptrend for AUDUSD. Perhaps, that sentiment will change once AUDUSD unravels more movements up or down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34,632
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:22pm Oct 18, 2011 8:22pm
Conflicting signals on the H4 and daily charts.. hmm..
  • #34,633
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:50pm Oct 18, 2011 8:50pm
Something to Ponder:

Quote
By Jamie Saettele, CMT, Sr. Technical Strategist 18 October 2011 15:16 GMT http://www.dailyfx.com/design/fxcm/img/common/blank.gif



The AUDUSD Monday high closed the gap (10356) that was left open from the 9/18 Sunday open. This fact, combined with the confluence of resistance from 10350-10400 (channel line, 200 day average) favors a bearish bias from the current level. Near term resistance is 10230/60...
  • #34,634
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:32pm Oct 18, 2011 9:32pm
Here is my Gann Fib overlay chart for today. Blue SMA200 and orange SMA125 on 5 min chart.
Looking for a break below 1.0231 around the 50% for a trip down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #34,635
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:47pm Oct 18, 2011 9:47pm
Hi DonL, what in your experience is the probability to react to the the upward 50% fib? very interesting...

Quoting DonL
Here is my Gann Fib overlay chart for today. Blue SMA200 and orange SMA125 on 5 min chart.
Looking for a break below 1.0231 around the 50% for a trip down.
  • #34,636
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm Oct 18, 2011 10:21pm
Maybe not so good of a Q.. Anyway US index dipped below 77.00...OOhh the Horror..

Quoting Chillypiper
Hi DonL, what in your experience is the probability to react to the the upward 50% fib? very interesting...
  • #34,637
  • Edited Oct 19, 2011 12:18am Oct 18, 2011 10:58pm | Edited Oct 19, 2011 12:18am
Hey Chillypiper,
I'm assuming that you are asking me about retracement in the upper 50% of an upward move. If a retracement back toward the 50% of the last leg up is not breached, there is a greater probability that PA will head back to the 23.6 Fib or the Gann 25% which also opens the possibility of a return to the previous high, forming a double top. Breaching the previous high is then a continuation of the upward move.

If PA retraces past the 50% and makes it to the 61.8, then the probability of a complete retrace of the upward move is more likely.

The AU/US is at this moment sitting on the 23.6 fib and is standing next to a upward gann angle which could take it back to the top. Time will tell!!

Quoting Chillypiper
Hi DonL, what in your experience is the probability to react to the the upward 50% fib? very interesting...
{Just an updated chart showing the Gann angle that predicted the double top.}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #34,638
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:09pm Oct 18, 2011 11:09pm
Yes! And thank you for the explanation, kinda the way I had envisioned it as to the way the quadrants are layed out. I will have to do some more research to this and play around with it, as far as the outer corners and such.

Btw, thinking the same to the dbl top may be good to hit the sell button..

Cheers!

Quoting DonL
Hey Chillypiper,
I'm assuming that you are asking me about retracement in the upper 50% of an upward move. If a retracement back toward the 50% of the last leg up is not breached, there is a greater probability that PA will head back to the 23.6 Fib or the Gann 25% which also opens the possibility of a return to the previous high, forming a double top. Breaching the previous high is then a continuation of the upward move.

If PA retraces past the 50% and makes it to the 61.8, then the probability of a complete retrace of the upward move is more...
  • #34,639
  • Oct 18, 2011 11:59pm Oct 18, 2011 11:59pm
Have a sell order at 375.. just where the daily bearish trendline lie, not sure if the h4 bullish trend would hold, just gonna take a small profit around 200ish
  • #34,640
  • Oct 19, 2011 12:21am Oct 19, 2011 12:21am
Quoting Chillypiper
Yes! And thank you for the explanation, kinda the way I had envisioned it as to the way the quadrants are layed out. I will have to do some more research to this and play around with it, as far as the outer corners and such.

Btw, thinking the same to the dbl top may be good to hit the sell button..

Cheers!
Just updated and added a chart showing the double top on my previous post. Now watching minor support lines and gann angles to see if it is actually going down or breaking through the top as a pull back.
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