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AUD/USD

  • #34,601
  • Oct 18, 2011 6:55am Oct 18, 2011 6:55am
Is 1.0120 a valid support?
Looking like a short if this level breaks
  • #34,602
  • Oct 18, 2011 7:01am Oct 18, 2011 7:01am
Waiting for the US traders to decide which direction to take before putting additional positions.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,603
  • Edited 8:59am Oct 18, 2011 7:22am | Edited 8:59am
I got some more spare change (8 pips) from the double top and also one of my lines at 70 (sliding channel due to a breakout of the original channel) down to 44. Now its the news in 10 mins so will see what violence that unleashes on the market.

Burger King I have nothing at 1.0120, but it is a level that has provided support recently, so must be something there.

Revised levels are 1.0100 and then 10079 (be 78 in an hour)
Edit Took the last break above the 170, it came at it with some momentum this time, plus on some good news, took it and closed in a minute on the next resistance level. Another 8pips in my bank and my equity curve stays upsloping for another day.
Attached Image
  • #34,604
  • Oct 18, 2011 7:30am Oct 18, 2011 7:30am
Quoting taxe91
thats the second time since london opened that the pair has bounced violently off 1.0118 area.. climbed 60 pips last time wonder how far it will get this time
make that three times off 1.012..
  • #34,605
  • Oct 18, 2011 7:53am Oct 18, 2011 7:53am
Short at 1.0170 with s/l 1.0385 and tp 0.9730, will enter another short if it close below 0.9970 and move both s/l at 1.0035, this may not happen today
  • #34,606
  • Oct 18, 2011 8:45am Oct 18, 2011 8:45am
Quoting FX-Petra
Added another long @ the hourly uptend line of 0180. We'll see if she drops much further. Stops @ 9800.

regards,
Was able to add 2 more longs @ 0130 over night. Just closed my 0180 @ + 5, as it is obvious the old hourly uptrend line is meaningless now.

Long 2 from 0250
Long 2 from 0130

Looking to TP on 3 lots between 0300 and 0350. Holding 1 more long term. Stops below 9800.

Regards,
  • #34,607
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:04am Oct 18, 2011 9:04am
AUD/USD support at 1.0100-1.0120, need to break it for further down move.
  • #34,608
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:07am Oct 18, 2011 9:07am
If it got to 1.0100 and I was awake .. and provided it wasn't crashing with some bad news, I would jump right in front of it there .. I would have to.
  • #34,609
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:08am Oct 18, 2011 9:08am
Quoting Yuchen
AUD/USD support at 1.0100-1.0120, need to break it for further down move.
True. But I think with all the good US news plus a bit of details being shared on the Eurozone debt plan, not sure whether we will hit there again that soon i.e people would be more risk takers...

Basically I'm currently scalping between the 88.1 fib fan lines I've drawn in the attached chart for now as the price seems to be moving nicely within that wedge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.gif Size: 21 KB
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,610
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:15am Oct 18, 2011 9:15am
Quoting FX-Petra
Was able to add 2 more longs @ 0130 over night. Just closed my 0180 @ + 5, as it is obvious the old hourly uptrend line is meaningless now.

Long 2 from 0250
Long 2 from 0130

Looking to TP on 3 lots between 0300 and 0350. Holding 1 more long term. Stops below 9800.

Regards,
Hello Petra, why do you enter in Long?
  • #34,611
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:20am Oct 18, 2011 9:20am
Quoting Chelost
Hello Petra, why do you enter in Long?
I usally hold trades anywhere from a few days to a few months. Long term shorts on this pair are a killer because of the huge negative swap. Conversly, I am paid a very nice intrest rate to hold long, wait for the news of the day (or week) settle down, and allow price to start rising again. That is what I am doing right now. I usually only trade pairs with the best intrest rate differentials, and I only trade in the direction of the larger intrest rate. Over time, these pairs tend to appreciate.

Regards,
  • #34,612
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:29am Oct 18, 2011 9:29am
Quoting FX-Petra
I usally hold trades anywhere from a few days to a few months. Long term shorts on this pair are a killer because of the huge negative swap. Conversly, I am paid a very nice intrest rate to hold long, wait for the news of the day (or week) settle down, and allow price to start rising again. That is what I am doing right now. I usually only trade pairs with the best intrest rate differentials, and I only trade in the direction of the larger intrest rate. Over time, these pairs tend to appreciate.

Regards,
That makes sense.... and as long you have enough capital to withstand the drawdowns, you'll in a good position
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,613
  • Oct 18, 2011 9:31am Oct 18, 2011 9:31am
Quoting FX-Petra
Was able to add 2 more longs @ 0130 over night. Just closed my 0180 @ + 5, as it is obvious the old hourly uptrend line is meaningless now.

Long 2 from 0250
Long 2 from 0130

Looking to TP on 3 lots between 0300 and 0350. Holding 1 more long term. Stops below 9800.

Regards,
You have 300 pips of SL and your TP is about 200 pips?
  • #34,614
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:15am Oct 18, 2011 10:15am
Quoting jayjb
You have 300 pips of SL and your TP is about 200 pips?
Yes, and that is not ideal. I would like that ratio reversed. But we are where we are with regard to price between two areas of strong support and resistance. Waiting for a dip below parity could be a futile wait. And, as I said, I will only be clolsing 3 lots near 0350. The other I hope to hold for a topside test. We'll see what happens...

Regards,
  • #34,615
  • Oct 18, 2011 10:16am Oct 18, 2011 10:16am
A greater SL than TP can work out ok in some cases, because you get a higher percentage of wins to make up for the larger SL, but there is a sweet spot. Backtesting shows this.
  • #34,616
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:19pm Oct 18, 2011 2:19pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Was able to add 2 more longs @ 0130 over night. Just closed my 0180 @ + 5, as it is obvious the old hourly uptrend line is meaningless now.

Long 2 from 0250
Long 2 from 0130

Looking to TP on 3 lots between 0300 and 0350. Holding 1 more long term. Stops below 9800.

Regards,
3 lots closed @ 0320. Holding 1 lot from 0130. Happy to buy another dip, if possible.
If we could close above 0380, that would be a bullish outside day reversal candle, a clear buy signal. But we are a long way from that yet.

Regards,
  • #34,617
  • Oct 18, 2011 2:59pm Oct 18, 2011 2:59pm
Quoting FX-Petra
3 lots closed @ 0320. Holding 1 lot from 0130. Happy to buy another dip, if possible.
If we could close above 0380, that would be a bullish outside day reversal candle, a clear buy signal. But we are a long way from that yet.

Regards,

Congratulations Man
  • #34,618
  • Oct 18, 2011 3:14pm Oct 18, 2011 3:14pm
Quoting FX-Petra
3 lots closed @ 0320. Holding 1 lot from 0130. Happy to buy another dip, if possible.
If we could close above 0380, that would be a bullish outside day reversal candle, a clear buy signal. But we are a long way from that yet.

Regards,
good job..
my short at 0170 is horrible now... fortunately, i only short 0.025 lots but seems like i analyzed the 4H chart wrong...
move to s/l from 0385 to 0335 and will see if i get any chances to escape with smaller loss
  • #34,619
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:42pm Oct 18, 2011 4:42pm
AUD/USD 1.0258

Another choppy session last night with risk off and then risk on and now a Spanish downgrade.

I have to keep re-iterating its imperative to reduce position sizes if you want to stay in the game.

We are dealing with political minds who have no idea thats why the world is where it is.

Now my tech head suggested yesterday 1.01 - 1.04 for a few sessions ahead..

Fundamentally its a screaming sell but there are a couple of local economist suggesting otherwise..I dont know who pays them but someone must feel sorry for them.

Good luck
  • #34,620
  • Oct 18, 2011 4:52pm Oct 18, 2011 4:52pm
if the whole euro funding thing that sparked and continues to fuel the euro rally continues then all the risk pairs will not sell off... somewhere i read the eur is rich by about 1300 pips based on some french bond spread, when that gap is suppose to close and how valid it actually is is anyones guess, my thing with correlations was and always will be they work until they dont... and they can "not" work for a long long time.

That said i have a short bias for some reason, pairs like usd/cad hit some nice support levels, aud/usd almost made a double top... is it going to break up I don't know, what do you guys think?
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