AUD/USD

61.8 retracement on last leg down (Daily) and 50% on the whole move from the highs, have been crossed.

76.4% and 61.8% respectively are at around 1.0430.
1.0389-1.0397 has some resistance to watch (06-27 support, 09-16 resistance).

Here is why I am Short AUD/USD, NZD/USD and other risk currencies.

A Rip your face off rally this week on risk on has been incredible but we are coming to important resistance, this weeks gains have pushed up and we are nearly 1000 pips of the lows with decreasing volume. Along side we have a Bearish Divergence on many popular Oscillators. On AUD I am targeting 0.98 with stops just over 1.04. Big R:R and I believe there isn't enough hopium going around to push past this channel resistance.

Similar set-up on NZD/USD where I am targeting 0.76

I took a big hit selling the EUR rally mid week and believe this could easily recoup those lost pips.

still have my AU sell positions open.

I am one of those that believe that this push from the bulls will be pushed back. However, as long as traders are not even following the fundamentals (currently most of the trades are due to risk taking), it is dangerous for me to add any more AU sell positions unless I see really strong signals that proves otherwise.

I am posting my views on AUDUSD related to EURUSD and EURAUD which is how I am trading it as of now, based on respective correlations and covering one another if and when needed (long AUDUSD, short EURUSD).







We can see how all three views are consistent with each other.

A 200-period hourly correlation corresponds to the last 8 days approximately.
http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation



I expect a rise to the next strong resistance followed by a fall to previous levels (parity for Aussie, 1.3700/20 for the Euro).



Double-bottom on monthly EURAUD tells me bears could come back in force at that point for Aussie and Fiber, at least for a good while (23.6% to next strong resistance, about 1100 pips on EURAUD (roughly 1.3700 to 1.4800). As the Euro would be stronger than the Australian Dollar, a lesser fall could be expected for EURUSD compared to AUDUSD. (a value of about 1.4780 on EURAUD gives me 1.3600 and 0.9200 or 1.3300 and 0.9000 respectively).

Edit: Under a bullish point of view, that EURAUD rate is also the result of 1.0820 for the Aussie and 1.6000 for the Euro... hmmm...

AUD/USD – Bias (W1): Bullish; Bias (D1): Bullish Reversal; Bias (Overall): Bullish


http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381

http://lcchong.files.wordpress.com/2...ng?w=837&h=381

On a spot trade setup, I'll would be waiting to see where it opens, see if we get a gap down or not. Then I would be looking for short with a target of 285.

As can be seen on my chart, we stopped on the 38 I mentioned, a level that is quite old now, but still respected well, it was due for a pullback there on about 280 is where it should go to .. I chose 285 due to the little double bottom before it. I think it will open gapped down though anyway, inwhich case I would wait to see if the gap fillers are going to do there stuff.

Of course I won't be up intime probably so it's all a bit trival for me ! Good luck

Friday was at 1.0338, which is a close just above the 127.2 Fib of the current ascention... 200 daily SMA is at 1.0376 and there is a resistance at 1.03913 (a previous high and low) plus a 70.7% level (1.0355 of the 1.0750 to .94011 Fib retracement)... all just a short distance above.


First support would be the breakout point (which is also 50%Retracement of the last leg up) at 1.0222 and major support at 1.0130.


I believe if it goes up, it won't be much before it runs into a number of resistance areas.


All the best to everyone!! Have a great week of trading!

AUD/USD 1.0330..

Well today it certainly looks bid so it must go down ..

Still playing off the short side which is wrong technically but I sense something big is brewing.
Already we are seeing riots and unrest taking hold and this wont go away.
The attack on big corporations is starting to gain momentum.
The 1960's protests are back...Hopefully some good music will come out of it.

My tech head says 1.0380-00 good resistance followed by
Resistance 1.0430 1.0480 1.0500
Support 1.0300 1.0230 1.0180

Good luck

.

Sorry ... couldn't be clubbing in thread too much lately ... coz been focusing on scalping (aud/usd , usd/cad , etc ) and attending to my other businessess.

Other scalpers has been closed earlier including short @ 1.0010 (closed at 1.0000).

Im secured atm on AU with +3,137 pips with the following combinations.

long @ 0.9393 + short @ 1.0340 (+947 pips)
long @ 0.9919 + short @ 1.0339 (+420 pips)
long @ 0.9961 + short @ 1.0335 (+374 pips)
long @ 1.0105 + short @ 1.0334 (+229 pips)
long @ 1.0115 + short @ 1.0333 (+218 pips)
long @ 1.0120 + short @ 1.0331 (+211 pips)
long @ 1.0125 + short @ 1.0327 (+202 pips)
long @ 1.0131 + short @ 1.0325 (+194 pips)
long @ 1.0132 + short @ 1.0324 (+192 pips)
long @ 1.0168 + short @ 1.0318 (+150 pips)

U may continue ... I wanna hit the sack and close all those scalpers when I wake up ...

Good Luck to your trades ... !

AUD/USD 1.0300

Market searching for direction but interesting to note that stocks are buoyed and currencies arent following (yet) or perhaps are running out of steam.

Locally talks of banks cutting staff because of reduced credit uptake..
They wouldnt reduce interest rates by any chance would they?

Financial stocks however have ignored that people arent spending (Motor vehicle sales sunk) and are up nearly 2 pct !!

No wonder everyones super returns are shot to pieces..
Buy high and sell low

You never mention your losses...

once youve read enough of the threads/posts you'll realise hardly anyone does

on that note: entered into a short position earlier today (6 hours ago) at 1.0318 thinking i could catch the start of a slight retrace before this bullish rally continues. took a while for me (stupidly) to notice the last daily candle was a full marubozu..maybe the rally will continue.

got the hell out of that trade for a puny +17 pips

..Got to agree..and it's human nature..only very few people willing to admit their mistake..Most of us just want to show how good we are..Good Luck !!

Do u want me to loss them ? ok then ! ...

Entered short @ 1.0333 and closed @ 1.0342

another one ...

long @ 1.0350 , closed @ 1.0340

-19 pips gone ! Satisfy ? or ... do u want some more ?

Put up your chart analysis in this thread ... then ... u can laugh at others , ok ?

take it easy mate..i dont think he was having a go at you

that's ok , taxe91. lets get back to trading

anyone brave enought to short at resistance of 1.0370????????

Tempted but something tells me this bull isnt finished yet

im long at 1.0340 if that helps? (probably not)

got my own question too, theres a big spike in the 'long orders' at 1.08..anyone know what thats about?

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#AUD_USD