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My trades by Dave

  • #901
  • Apr 6, 2006 4:37pm Apr 6, 2006 4:37pm
Price remains below the 20sma on the 4 hr chart (1.2238 range)
That should be a good place to add positions.


Pivot is at 1.2250 (good place for s/l beyond there.




Waiting.....

Dave
  • #902
  • Apr 7, 2006 7:49am Apr 7, 2006 7:49am
The interbank group platform didn't freez at all durring high volume after news release. I hedged and took 20 pips in both directions and was able to manually exit the positions. I had stops and limmits set too. But I wanted to see if I could exicute something.

I am impressed with this broker.


An upwards retracement level falls around the 1.2232/60 range with pivots and fibos for resistance.


Holding position

Dave
  • #903
  • Apr 7, 2006 8:06am Apr 7, 2006 8:06am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short re-entry 1.2321

s/l 1.2340

target open

Dave

5 lots were entered at trade.


exit 3 lots at 1.2200.....+121 pips each


Move s/l on final positions to a 50 pip trailing stop.

I want to let the last 2 ride

Dave
  • #904
  • Apr 7, 2006 2:58pm Apr 7, 2006 2:58pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
5 lots were entered at trade.


exit 3 lots at 1.2200.....+121 pips each


Move s/l on final positions to a 50 pip trailing stop.

I want to let the last 2 ride

Dave
exit final 2 positions at 1.2100
20 day ma

Dave
  • #905
  • Apr 7, 2006 3:33pm Apr 7, 2006 3:33pm
Nice call and nice ride.

Lou
  • #906
  • Apr 7, 2006 4:27pm Apr 7, 2006 4:27pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
I spoke to a guy at interbank groupe. They don't run a dealing desk and he says it doesn't affect them if we win or lose. I asked him if they would mind if I get an account and take 500-1k$ per day off of a 5-10 pip movement. He said if it works and your making money then do it.

I can plan my position trades and just take 10 pips off the move. And on a standard account 10 lots 400:1 lev. thats 1k. But not for the weak at heart. Thats half the account margined.

When its small money like on my mini account a 10 pip win wasn't ever enough. Not greedy but do want more than 10-20 bucks for my effort. So I have always planned 50-100 pip moves and take 20-50 of it.
If 10 pips gave me 500-1k thats all I'd ever need. The guy said scalping isn't a problem.
And you can set up to 5 stops and 5 limmits per trade. to trail positions in and out of the trade. And hedging doesn't cost you extra margin. There price takes off on a breakout 10-15 sec befor cms. Simple ez to understand platform. Charting is minimal at best.

I think I like them we'll see.

They allow trailing s/l CMS don't

Dave
Hi Dave,

I'm looking at different brokers too. Currently InterbankFx is my favourite (live account). I can get in an out several times, everytime during volitility. Can you give me the link to this "interbank group" you're talking about? Are you going to open a live account with them? If so, when?

Sorry for all the questions. Just wanting some feedback if you're openning an account soon.

Thanx
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #907
  • Apr 7, 2006 8:22pm Apr 7, 2006 8:22pm
FOREX, Interbank Group

Hey Habeeb,....thanks Lou

I am probly going live with them the first of next week.


Dave
  • #908
  • Edited 9:52am Apr 8, 2006 9:45am | Edited 9:52am
Dave,

Just want to say that I think you're an amazing trader! I am trying to learn and understand how you do your technical analysis on the EURUSD. The little snippets that you have posted here and there in this forum are helpful, I just don't feel I can get a real thorough understanding until I further my education either through books or some study course that you may have gone through.

Can you list out the main technicals that you use and how to use them? And, can you recommend any books or study course that you went through that have helped you to develop the method that you have?

Also, anything you can recommend to help me learn how to use hedging effectively would be great.

Thanks!

P.S. Through the last trades that you have had where you have made over 200 pips. I have been watching the news. The first news that happened was with the ECB. They kept interest rates as is and in Trichet's statement he was not as hawkish as expected to raising interest rates. This was unexpected, therefore the Euro dropped and fulfilled your first prediction. The second news event was NFP. The numbers were a little higher than expected thus strengthening the US Dollar and causing the EUR to drop all the way to 1.2100. (If either of these news events had been opposite, for example if Trichet had announced a raise in interest rates, the Euro would have broken through resistance and shot up.)

I think with a combination of understanding the news and learning the way you do technical analysis, the probability of winning trades increases tremendously.
  • #909
  • Apr 8, 2006 10:08am Apr 8, 2006 10:08am
Hugo,

I will let you all in on how I developed my skills. I havn't taken any classes or any thing like that.
About 8 months ago I joined www.traders-secret-library.com developed by Mark McRea.
This is an arcive of information. You will find every thing you need to know to develope (your own) trade system. He gives loyalty bonosus for remaining a paying subscriber. Like sure fire forex method, e-wave book, and much more.

1 year as a member there you get 100x the info you would taking just 1 class and spend the same or less money.

There you can learn how to properly use the most effective indacaters.
I am not recomending any one, pay any body, any thing. I am simply stating what I use.

Here is the chart on last weeks trade.

Notice I have marked the divergence on the RSI and TSI indacaters.

MacD can be made to signal like the TSI by changing the settings to 13/20/7.

Dave

P.S It was my resize prog. that was messed up.
Attached Image
  • #910
  • Apr 8, 2006 10:34am Apr 8, 2006 10:34am
Divergence: Most effective way to find a reversal.

When the RSI indacater reaches overbought/oversold levels and the RSI starts angling in the opposit direction of the price movement. This means the price is losing momentom and a reversal/retrace is near.
You have to be aware of the time frame your trading on and how many pips a trend on this time frame typically moves. 1hr chart signals are usually good for 20-30 pips. 4 hr chart 40-60 pips.

I have found I lose when I go for too many pips off the 1 hr signal.

so I will only be going for 5-10 pips off the 1 hr signals. and 20-30 on the 4 hr signals.
Why so low you ask? On my live account I will be starting with 5k standard, 400:1 leverage. 5-10 lots per trade. It will be 50-100$ per pip. In order to increase the odds I will find what I belive to be a 20-30 pip move and only take a small portion of it. 9 out of 10 trades I take move 10-20 pips profit.
It is very very rare that I take a trade and it doesn't move into 10 pips profit. I will only be taking the best setups and signals. On a 4 hr signal I (might) go for more pips.

Another down fall I have is entering a trade because it (looks) like a signal is comming. Trying to predict signals is bad news. Last weeks losses is due to that. I was trading a target based on the 4 hr and daily but the 4hr hadn't signaled yet.

Those losses I took last week hurt my 5 demos bad. I sank them all down to below 1k. I only had 2 of them in the last winner and made all my losses back to a break even level. Its good to know that even suffering losses under high leverage and large positions I can still recover. Some trades were experimental though like the hedge I posted.
I turned 200 into 5k on the mini. My goal here is to turn 5k into 100k. Lofty but doable.

Dave
  • #911
  • Apr 8, 2006 11:19am Apr 8, 2006 11:19am
Thanks for all this information Dave, it's very helpful! I already purchased a subscription to TradersSecretCode, but I never looked at it. I need to study it. I'm not sure what the difference is between TradersSecretCode and TradersSecretLibrary and SureFireForexTrading. All of these are subscritions that Mark McRae has. I sent them an email to find out.

Regarding your losses. On one of your losses you lost 30 or 40 pips. Do you think you could have minimized this loss by hedging. For example, instead of setting a stop at 30 or 40 pips, what about setting a hedged buy order at 20 pips above. For example:
I'm thinking of two hypothetical scenarios in back-testing that might have worked to limit losses and increase profits:
A)
Short at 1.2270, No Stop
Hedge for long at 1.2295 with stop at 1.2275 and no limit to sell

Then you are at risk for only 25 pips loss. If you find that the trade continues to go up and breaks further past resistance...lets say it even went up to 1.4000, you could just close both of your positions and you would only have 25 pip loss.

B)
Short at 1.2270, Stop at 20 pips above the highest high 1.2340
Hedge for long at 1.2295, with stop at 1.2275 and limit to sell at 1.2320
(If all of your stops get taken out in this, you are at risk for losing 45 pips)

Both of these would have limited risk and have kept you in the trade. I think this may be the answer to really limiting risk. I'm just not sure about where to add a hedge, how many pips, etc.
  • #912
  • Apr 8, 2006 11:49am Apr 8, 2006 11:49am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short re-entry 1.2321

s/l 1.2340

target open

Dave
-27 pips on that s/l taken out

dave
  • #913
  • Apr 8, 2006 11:58am Apr 8, 2006 11:58am
Quoting hugobossv8
Thanks for all this information Dave, it's very helpful! I already purchased a subscription to TradersSecretCode, but I never looked at it. I need to study it. I'm not sure what the difference is between TradersSecretCode and TradersSecretLibrary and SureFireForexTrading. All of these are subscritions that Mark McRae has. I sent them an email to find out.

Regarding your losses. On one of your losses you lost 30 or 40 pips. Do you think you could have minimized this loss by hedging. For example, instead of setting a stop at 30 or 40 pips, what about setting a hedged buy order at 20 pips above. For example:
I'm thinking of two hypothetical scenarios in back-testing that might have worked to limit losses and increase profits:
A)
Short at 1.2270, No Stop
Hedge for long at 1.2295 with stop at 1.2275 and no limit to sell

Then you are at risk for only 25 pips loss. If you find that the trade continues to go up and breaks further past resistance...lets say it even went up to 1.4000, you could just close both of your positions and you would only have 25 pip loss.

B)
Short at 1.2270, Stop at 20 pips above the highest high 1.2340
Hedge for long at 1.2295, with stop at 1.2275 and limit to sell at 1.2320
(If all of your stops get taken out in this, you are at risk for losing 45 pips)

Both of these would have limited risk and have kept you in the trade. I think this may be the answer to really limiting risk. I'm just not sure about where to add a hedge, how many pips, etc.
Thanks for your ideas.
My indacaters were pointing to a big move down so I wouldn't dare hedge a trade like that.
Hedging is ok if the market is bouncing above and below a pivot and cann't decide a direction, and indacaters are giving mixed signals.
Trying to minimise losses the wrong way at the wrong time will end up maximising losses. The only way to manage is with a proper win/loss ratio.
My biggest loss was like 30 pips or so. The other s/l was 15 and 27. The trade was for a big 100-200 pip move. In the end my biggest s/l was less than 20% of the winning trade. The other s/l's was less than that.

It was a demo so I was testing and playing. None of that will happen on real account. But I will still play with the CMS demo because I like the charts and by playing on the demo I will fill that "need to trade". I like trying to scalp on the demo.
The trades I post should maintain a good win/loss ratio. If they don't I'll stop untill they do again. As I did befor.

Dave
  • #914
  • Apr 8, 2006 12:04pm Apr 8, 2006 12:04pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Thanks for your ideas.
My indacaters were pointing to a big move down so I wouldn't dare hedge a trade like that.
Hedging is ok if the market is bouncing above and below a pivot and cann't decide a direction, and indacaters are giving mixed signals.
Trying to minimise losses the wrong way at the wrong time will end up maximising losses. The only way to manage is with a proper win/loss ratio.
My biggest loss was like 30 pips or so. The other s/l was 15 and 27. The trade was for a big 100-200 pip move. In the end my biggest s/l was less than 20% of the winning trade. The other s/l's was less than that.

It was a demo so I was testing and playing. None of that will happen on real account. But I will still play with the CMS demo because I like the charts and by playing on the demo I will fill that "need to trade". I like trying to scalp on the demo.
The trades I post should maintain a good win/loss ratio. If they don't I'll stop untill they do again. As I did befor.

Dave
Thanks Dave!
  • #915
  • Apr 8, 2006 12:06pm Apr 8, 2006 12:06pm
Here is a chart on the daily trend.

RSI is showing divergence and testing the 50 line.
The price is testing the middle bolli wich happens to be the 20 day ma also.
The TSI is about to cross the signal line but befor it does the price should bounce back to at least 1.2150. Bottom trend line lies around 1.2030. A sustained break below 1.2100 will target that area.

Once the TSI crosses then I'll wach the 4 hr for a cross. Then I'll enter at the 1 hr cross.

But Untill the bottom trend line is broke the daily trend is still up.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #916
  • Apr 8, 2006 12:47pm Apr 8, 2006 12:47pm
Here is a great way to find entry points.

Yellow circles = break of a trend line.
Blue circles = break of middle bolli/20ma

This is the 4 hr chart but this works on any chart.

when you get a break of the trend line you then wait for a break and a close above/below the 20ma or middle bolli. There was one that broke the trend line and middle boli at the same time.

Place s/l just beyond previous support resistance.

Target 1 hr time chart or higher 20 pips.

Lower than 1 hr time chart just scalp 5-10.

These small targets will almost garentee a very high win ratio. As long as you follow the method. Wait untill signals happen. You can get in befor the signal happens and get a better entry but you'll increase your losses a little bit. If it bounces off the middle bolli. Like it did the 3 trades befor the last.
Remember: sustained break of a line is a close beyound and if you want to play it safer then wait for the next candle to break the high/low of the previouse.

Look for divergence to signal a trend change. Like the divergence the TSI is showing. If the break of the trend line is at the top or bottom boli line then you can target the middle boli as I did last trade.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #917
  • Apr 8, 2006 1:31pm Apr 8, 2006 1:31pm
Here is a weekly chart. The weekly price is in its last stages of a wedge. The price broke the top wedge line but couldn't sustain. Now the price should target the bottom line at 1.1900 range.

The weekly 20 ma is at 1.2050

RSI is in a wedge and TSI is nutral at the O mark

even sure fire trend indacater is nutral

A long term position trade is forming here. A breakof this wedge should be a nice 400-500 pip trend either to the 1.2500 range or the 1.1500 range.

Could be a week or 2 befor it breaks. Could brake tomarrow.
Stay tuned to find out.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #918
  • Apr 8, 2006 4:53pm Apr 8, 2006 4:53pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
FOREX, Interbank Group

Hey Habeeb,....thanks Lou

I am probly going live with them the first of next week.


Dave
Thanx for the link. Let us know how you find them.

I came across these guys http://www.forex-swiss.com/index.html
Have you (or anybody else) got some feedback on them?

Thanx
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #919
  • Apr 8, 2006 5:14pm Apr 8, 2006 5:14pm
The reply I just got from interbank group is this.....

Interbank Group <[email protected]> wrote: We clear through several FCM's depending on client needs. What are you
looking for in terms of a relationship? Tighter spreads? More leverage?
Etc?

Some FCM's are actively trading with are WWC, Gain and FXSOL.

Thank you,


Brian Johnston

Senior Currency Trader

www.interbankgroup.com

I told them that gain and fxsol are not clearing firms they are brokers and if my trades will be going through bucket shop brokers I wouldn't dare trade with them. And that they are misleading the public to think they give interbank quotes.

I am so dissappointed.

Dave
  • #920
  • Apr 8, 2006 8:11pm Apr 8, 2006 8:11pm
Here is interbank group next reply,.....

We have large clients that get true interbank prices called STP (straight through processing). it goes to several “bidding” banks, such as Deutsche Bank. I know you only have $5k but I can see if I can get this for you if you want it. The spreads will be 3 wide on all majors and you will have 400:1 leverage. Again all your trades will be sent directly to a bidding bank and there will be “no dealing desk” at the FCM to take your order.



Please send back the application and put attn: Brian, STP account.



Thanks,



Brian



Brian Johnston

Senior Currency Trader

www.interbankgroup.com

I asked him how will I know its really interbank quotes and not gain or some other broker.
So we'll see what kind of garentee they give in writing.

Dave
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