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Nb 10.0 range trading system

  • #281
  • Oct 13, 2011 6:51am Oct 13, 2011 6:51am
Quoting Devonfgu
Dear bob,

I am interesting your hedging theory, could you share to us.
many FF trader not live in USA.
me too
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #282
  • Oct 13, 2011 9:28am Oct 13, 2011 9:28am
With a short explanation here with the aud/usd. Let us say you have a hedge going. At area 1 is when ranging period would begin. You would try to pick a low and high to release the 2 hedges. See 1A to 1B in second chart. To eliminate 100 pip hedge in this 250 pip retracement. This one would be difficult to read and pick up but it shows it possible. release one near the bottom S line and release the other near the top R line. If that didnt work then on to area 2. You have a 5 day ranging period here.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd a.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #283
  • Oct 13, 2011 9:32am Oct 13, 2011 9:32am
Area 2 on this chart is a much bigger area and gives a 350 space to unhedge over 3 days. What is nice about this one is a high and low is established before ranging begins.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd b.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #284
  • Oct 13, 2011 9:37am Oct 13, 2011 9:37am
Area 3 is a straight reversal into the new trend so that would be hard to unload here. Not a good range but then life is like that sometimes. But that is the theory behind it. Wait for a time when you can unload off of a high low point on a lower chart. I am sure top to bottom BB bands would work also. It is just a matter of catch some kind of low and high to do it in and the range period in 10.0 would be your best explanation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd c.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #285
  • Oct 13, 2011 1:33pm Oct 13, 2011 1:33pm
Hey everyone so been running it this week and must say in 24 hours it is up already 23 pips locked in with 180 pips in the running, cannot believe it was this successful overnight. Will be testing for the next month to get the hang of it before I go live.

Will also post the link to myfxbook later so you can all see the trades.
  • #286
  • Oct 13, 2011 8:26pm Oct 13, 2011 8:26pm
Thanks Bob.

I get the impression that this might be difficult to do if you don't have the experience.

How much do you rely on purely technical indicators? Do you ever use "feel" to decide that market conditions have changed from trend to range?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #287
  • Oct 13, 2011 9:18pm Oct 13, 2011 9:18pm
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks Bob.

I get the impression that this might be difficult to do if you don't have the experience.

How much do you rely on purely technical indicators? Do you ever use "feel" to decide that market conditions have changed from trend to range?
Yes I think there is a feel for the market. The best thing to use would be the 4H high low because that would give you the range to expect. So if the pips between the high and low are 75 you can capture 40-50 of the pips. You can do the math from there. The problem is since I cant hedge I dont have the practical experience to go with theory. I do have the practical CT trade but not the other. The problem with hedging is not the strategy it is the getting out. The other strategy would be to hold the hedge until you have enough winners to delete it, then you can wipe it out.
  • #288
  • Oct 13, 2011 10:22pm Oct 13, 2011 10:22pm
Quoting nanningbob
Yes I think there is a feel for the market. The best thing to use would be the 4H high low because that would give you the range to expect. So if the pips between the high and low are 75 you can capture 40-50 of the pips. You can do the math from there. The problem is since I cant hedge I dont have the practical experience to go with theory. I do have the practical CT trade but not the other. The problem with hedging is not the strategy it is the getting out. The other strategy would be to hold the hedge until you have enough winners to delete it,...
Thanks Bob. For now I think I will stay away from hedges. I have enough trouble trying to figure out what positions I currently have open and closed.

Despite the worst possible market for my system, I have closed out a couple thousand pips in the last couple of weeks and well over 100 positions. I couldn't imagine having to keep track of hedges on top of everything. My success rate is almost 100%, and my account balance is up 5%. So much for the SL crowd.

When you use your system how much do you interfer with your EA's? Do you take the attitude of the scientist or the parent?
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #289
  • Oct 13, 2011 11:32pm Oct 13, 2011 11:32pm
Quoting AaronWard
Thanks Bob. For now I think I will stay away from hedges. I have enough trouble trying to figure out what positions I currently have open and closed.

Despite the worst possible market for my system, I have closed out a couple thousand pips in the last couple of weeks and well over 100 positions. I couldn't imagine having to keep track of hedges on top of everything. My success rate is almost 100%, and my account balance is up 5%. So much for the SL crowd.

When you use your system how much do you interfer with your EA's? Do you take the attitude...
I only use EAs to enter. Some of my 4H ones have a tp built in but they are seldom hit (a problem I will deal with this weekend.) I usually take profit at a S/R spot and then set the EA up for another entrance. I take profit sometime into a session. 2-3 hours into JPY, 3-4 hours into the Euro and 3-4 hours into the USA session. Sometimes there is something before the jpy open. I like to grab profit before it retraces back into oblivion. Sometimes I miss the big move but most of the time I get the profit and later get a reentry for another.
  • #290
  • Oct 13, 2011 11:41pm Oct 13, 2011 11:41pm
Quoting nanningbob
I only use EAs to enter. Some of my 4H ones have a tp built in but they are seldom hit (a problem I will deal with this weekend.) I usually take profit at a S/R spot and then set the EA up for another entrance. I take profit sometime into a session. 2-3 hours into JPY, 3-4 hours into the Euro and 3-4 hours into the USA session. Sometimes there is something before the jpy open. I like to grab profit before it retraces back into oblivion. Sometimes I miss the big move but most of the time I get the profit and later get a reentry for another.
I do something similar. I manually set my entries, but have a tendency to close them before I hit the TP. I actually see this as a bad thing. 80% of the time the price actually ends up at the TP, and so I am short changing myself. this really adds up. Over time it works out to about 40% less profit. I see this as a personal failing. My entries are clever, but my exits are driven by fear. But then again, I have not done a proper analysis losses I avoided by exiting too early.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #291
  • Oct 13, 2011 11:49pm Oct 13, 2011 11:49pm
My view of hedging is an emergency stop the action. It freezes time and allows me to think of what I want to do next. It is a breather. I can walk away for 2 weeks if I want to and come back later. Under pressure you can make some really bad decisions. With it you can think it through exactly what you want to do. It gives you time to make a solid plan and also research how you got into the mess in the first place.
  • #292
  • Oct 14, 2011 12:28am Oct 14, 2011 12:28am
Quoting nanningbob
My view of hedging is an emergency stop the action. It freezes time and allows me to think of what I want to do next. It is a breather. I can walk away for 2 weeks if I want to and come back later. Under pressure you can make some really bad decisions. With it you can think it through exactly what you want to do. It gives you time to make a solid plan and also research how you got into the mess in the first place.
Yeah, I passed on this advice to another fellow just 2 days ago. Key value of a hedge is psychological. Key cost is also psychological. And the key issue in whether to use one or not is who you are as a person.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #293
  • Oct 14, 2011 1:41am Oct 14, 2011 1:41am
NB,

An US broker to do both buy and sell orders in 1 pair is Interactive Brokers, although I think you have to deposit $ 10,000 to open an account. Although who will check that when you tell them that you will deposit the required deposit or higher, but actually deposit less?
  • #294
  • Oct 14, 2011 5:02am Oct 14, 2011 5:02am
Quoting yonnie
NB,

An US broker to do both buy and sell orders in 1 pair is Interactive Brokers, although I think you have to deposit $ 10,000 to open an account. Although who will check that when you tell them that you will deposit the required deposit or higher, but actually deposit less?
You can hedge with IBFX also but you need two accounts and they will transfer money from one to the other quickly. Still you can margin out if you trade too big because you are using twice the margin with two trades going. Anyway for now I am happy with what I am doing here. I probably am going to whittle down the number of pairs I use and then increase lot size to get a better return with less risk. I think I could trade .05 or .06 with 6-8 pairs so I am researching now which ones I want to use.
  • #295
  • Oct 14, 2011 2:04pm Oct 14, 2011 2:04pm
just the 1 account with IB

am curious which pairs you will settle on...............
why not try to have the 8 main currencies presented equally. so 4 or 8 pairs.
in that way none is overpresented and causing major problems if 1 currency takes off.
  • #296
  • Oct 14, 2011 5:09pm Oct 14, 2011 5:09pm
Quoting yonnie
just the 1 account with IB

am curious which pairs you will settle on...............
why not try to have the 8 main currencies presented equally. so 4 or 8 pairs.
in that way none is overpresented and causing major problems if 1 currency takes off.
My decision is based more on volatility than over representation but I want to cut out and go smaller with range trading. When you see what I am cooking up in my Trend trading section you will know why. I want more pairs available for that and just let the real consistant range pairs for range trading. So far the best 4 have been gbp/cad, aud/nzd, eur/gbp, and usd/jpy. The other 4 I will wait and see. Maybe the NZD/JPY. I may just go with those 4 or 5 and use bigger lot sizes. That uses all 7 currencies and only the gbp is used twice. If I add the NZD/JPY then gbp, nzd, and jpy are used twice. No CHF. dang thing has been my biggest headache the last two years.
  • #297
  • Oct 15, 2011 9:20am Oct 15, 2011 9:20am
NB,

dont know how you calculate the volatility of a pair, but I look at the difference between high and low of the last year as a percentage of the low.

the best pairs are usd/cad 7.4%, gbp/cad 7.5%, usd/hkd 7.9%, eur/cad 8.2%, gbp/usd 9.3%, eur/gbp 9.6%, aud/cad 9.6%, usd/sgd 10.5%, eur/aud 10.9%, aud/nzd 12%, usd/jpy 12.6%.

however to look back for a year might be too long, because markets do change quickly.

another way could be to look at the daily ATR for the last month as a percentage of price and trade the ones with the lowest for the next month.
suppose a daily ATR of 120 pips in a pair priced at 0.60 is twice as volatile as 120 pips in a pair priced at 1.20..........

how do you do the process NB?

now CHF is aligned to the EUR would that make a difference in the volatility?
  • #298
  • Edited 10:33am Oct 15, 2011 10:23am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting yonnie
NB,

dont know how you calculate the volatility of a pair, but I look at the difference between high and low of the last year as a percentage of the low.

the best pairs are usd/cad 7.4%, gbp/cad 7.5%, usd/hkd 7.9%, eur/cad 8.2%, gbp/usd 9.3%, eur/gbp 9.6%, aud/cad 9.6%, usd/sgd 10.5%, eur/aud 10.9%, aud/nzd 12%, usd/jpy 12.6%.

however to look back for a year might be too long, because markets do change quickly.

another way could be to look at the daily ATR for the last month as a percentage of price and trade the ones with the lowest...

I have my results in the 10.0 folder. It is in an excel sheet if you want to look.
  • #299
  • Oct 21, 2011 10:01pm Oct 21, 2011 10:01pm
I posted my results from range trading in the wrong thread. Here is the post I wanted to put here.

Post 163+ I give some more info on recovery trades you might find valuable.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post5062752
  • #300
  • Oct 22, 2011 8:26pm Oct 22, 2011 8:26pm
If this story is true get ready to sell the Euro again:

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2011...n-failure.html

I will again take the position of only doing sells on the Euro. It will be interesting to see if SNB will be able to hold the line on the euro/chf. My guess it wont but I wouldnt trust my guess. In my 10.0 trend I posted a BO system I think would work very well in the upcoming market so I would seriously look at that or any other breakout system you are comfortable with.


I do not recommend range trading or CT trading during this upcoming possible super news story. If you find yourself on the wrong end of a trade you would be better off closing it than trying to ride it out. I have no idea how a 50% or greater loss on Greek debt will play out. I do have my guesses and they would be. Sell the euro, probably also the gbp. Chf I wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole, SNB could do anything. USD probably be the currency of choice to appreciate and probably also the JPY. Commodity currencies Cad, NZD, AUD, I dont know but whatever direction they start to run they probably will run in that direction for a while. For those of you who know more about fundamentals please post your thoughts. Thank you.
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