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How do you trade news?

  • #81
  • Apr 3, 2006 1:10am Apr 3, 2006 1:10am
Thanks again, SMJ, for your input on this. And thanks, all, for bringing it up!

I will be re-evaluating the idea and demoing some trades to see what I can learn.

Does anyone know of any Dollar pairs that should be avoided when trading the news, or are all Dollar pairs fair game?

james275 mentioned the Yen and EUR, and I played with the GBP. How about the rest? Anybody out there play most Dollar pairs or are some taboo for this strategy?

Thanks ahead for the further education by all posters.
  • #82
  • Apr 3, 2006 1:17am Apr 3, 2006 1:17am
Quoting wryan
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS and alot of them like myself...I have found fxcm.com to have very informed reps. They also have alot alot of free learning resources including http://www.fxcmtr.com/education/trad...ndicators.html

GOOD LUCK!!
Thanks for the link.

That is more of what I was looking for. Much appreciated.
  • #83
  • Apr 3, 2006 8:35am Apr 3, 2006 8:35am
Quoting merlin
great attachment bemac. one thing you are underestimating is the CPI, though. employement situation is important, and you have that covered, but CPI is even more important than employement. currency trading (on a fundamental level) is all about interest rates. two things drive interest rates: inflation and employement. back in the 70's, economists were all about employement. but we have learned since then, and now economic theory puts more weight on the inflation. bernanke's (and Trichet and the rest of the central bank heads) main focus is inflation, have a read of his book 'inflation targeting' and that will be ultra clear, and therefore the market's focus is on inflation. anyway, this is a long way of saying 'its all about the CPI'.


Quoting wryan
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS and alot of them like myself...I have found fxcm.com to have very informed reps. They also have alot alot of free learning resources including http://www.fxcmtr.com/education/trad...ndicators.html

GOOD LUCK!!
According to the above link, CPI is ~ 1/3rd as important as Employment. I have it @ 9/10ths. So they would say I have given CPI too much weighting.

Effects of the releases can be tracked on the second sheet of the XL book. If anyone is using it, it would be nice to compare the effects on your favourite pairs. If not, it might be an idea to start.
  • #84
  • Apr 3, 2006 11:15am Apr 3, 2006 11:15am
GMT
[16:13 NEWS: US Capitol Building Evacuated] San Francisco, April 3.

Will post as received
  • #85
  • Apr 3, 2006 11:21am Apr 3, 2006 11:21am
[16:13 NEWS: US Capitol Building Evacuated] San Francisco, April 3. The US capital building has been evacuated according to Dow Jones, with the evacuation coming after a power outage at the capitol. The news is not seen helping the beleaguered USD however and the USD remains heavy with USD/JPY at 117.78 and only ten points above the NY low.
  • #86
  • Apr 5, 2006 10:31pm Apr 5, 2006 10:31pm
From my past exprience, I tried to trade the news but the market just moved so fast that it simply skiped through my orders and they didn't get filled, and even if they did, the market whipped back against its original trade, and skipped through my stop/loss good thing I was testing with my demo account. BUt is it just my broker? or did any of you have this kind of experience? is there such thing as 'good news' to trade? any news to avoid? Thank you.
  • #87
  • Apr 5, 2006 11:42pm Apr 5, 2006 11:42pm
I use market orders on Oanda and have been happy with it. Even during NFP and FOMC decisions I get very little slippage. Some time ago I had a demo account with interbankFX and trying to trade a news announcement i just kept getting requotes. So some brokers are better then others for it.

As far as news in general, it's either expected or unexpected. An important announcement that comes out inline with expectations will often move less then an unimportant one that blindsides the market. So you just never know how an announcement will play out until it hits.

Good luck
  • #88
  • Edited 12:59am Apr 6, 2006 12:28am | Edited 12:59am
Hello darkstar

Thank you for the info. I really appreciate it. J

I was also reading your post #62. When you set up your res and supp level on your 180m chart, are they from weekly pivot level etc? Or from something else? Thank you again for your time.

John
  • #89
  • Apr 6, 2006 2:10pm Apr 6, 2006 2:10pm
The support and resistance is based on price points only. I draw horizontal lines from the last several swing highs and lows on a 3 hour chart. For example, Looking at the current chart (usd/jpy) I would put lines at 118.49 (mar 24 high) 116.25 (mar 27 low) 118.00 (mar 28-29th resistance area) 117.11 (mar 30 low) 118.80 (apr 3 high) and 116.68 (apr 5 low). Depending how close we were to the top or bottom of the range I may go back further in time to find price points to use for the areas above and below.

If we were trending I would look to add the 50% retracement levels for reference but pivot points are too complicated for my needs...

Good luck!
  • #90
  • Apr 7, 2006 9:35am Apr 7, 2006 9:35am
Boy, If today did not leave enough time to get on the move after the NFP. There is no news that will. I waited 1/2 hour after the news and then shorted the GBPUSD. Another box play or channel break out. These are free pips. I do not understand the big deal about trading news.

After news is released, The risk has dissipated and what is left is a very high probability trade from a breakout channel. It is really as simple as that. I can now decide if I want to close this trade with about 80+ pips profit * 3 lots that I placed, or turn it into a VWB 4hour trade for a longer term run. It fits the model perfectly, because the market is not trending. Vegas himself said
In a range-bound market, which we define as a market between 3 - 5 handles [or lower] in a 5 week time-frame, we trade both sides.

I believe the GBPUSD fits that category.

SMJ
  • #91
  • Apr 7, 2006 11:03am Apr 7, 2006 11:03am
hello smjones

I noticed there was a quite strong upmove in 'an hour' after the release. I was just wondering where was your stop at because it seems that you didn't get stopped out from that move. Can you also please tell us where your box set ups were when you executed an order? Thank you
  • #92
  • Apr 7, 2006 11:26am Apr 7, 2006 11:26am
Earlier in this thread there are detailed discrptions of my approach. I waited until the large swing was over just after about 9:00.ET, the high had already been made. Thanks SMJ



Quoting luk77y
hello smjones

I noticed there was a quite strong upmove in 'an hour' after the release. I was just wondering where was your stop at because it seems that you didn't get stopped out from that move. Can you also please tell us where your box set ups were when you executed an order? Thank you
  • #93
  • Apr 7, 2006 11:27am Apr 7, 2006 11:27am
Today's NFP trade...i got in a EURUSD sell at 1.2192 after market began to settle after ~15ish min looking at a 5min chart. Had set up a TDTL and waited for a break-down in direction of news analysis and TA as currency was still in a down trend and had not completed/hit TA's target (61.8% retracement ? target of 1.2112 ish).

First lot was taken at 4hr tunnel for +55
Second remaining lot is now at +85 pips with 20 pip trailing stop w/64 pips locked in.

: - )

Hey SMJ did you happen to notice it was a perfect 1 beat from begining movements at 1.7510 to 1.7450 to initial stall point GBPUSD ...and 1 beat from 1.2210 to 1.2150 to initial stall point EURUSD ?? Fun stuff.
  • #94
  • Apr 7, 2006 11:34am Apr 7, 2006 11:34am
Yes I sure did, I again kudos on the great work on that. Is MTi still doing this stuff? An thanks again for the info.

SMJ


Quoting accrete
Today's NFP trade...i got in a EURUSD sell at 1.2192 after market began to settle after ~15ish min looking at a 5min chart. Had set up a TDTL and waited for a break-down in direction of news analysis and TA as currency was still in a down trend and had not completed/hit TA's target (61.8% retracement ? target of 1.2112 ish).

First lot was taken at 4hr tunnel for +55
Second remaining lot is now at +85 pips with 20 pip trailing stop w/64 pips locked in.

: - )

Hey SMJ did you happen to notice it was a perfect 1 beat from begining movements at 1.7510 to 1.7450 to initial stall point GBPUSD ...and 1 beat from 1.2210 to 1.2150 to initial stall point EURUSD ?? Fun stuff.
  • #95
  • Apr 7, 2006 11:41am Apr 7, 2006 11:41am
Quoting smjones
Yes I sure did, I again kudos on the great work on that. Is MTi still doing this stuff? An thanks again for the info.

SMJ
THX, yes they are...it's lession 13 of their 16 cd "Ultimate Traders Package". good solid teaching!

(I'm not affiliated w/MTI so this should not be considered an advertisement(?), I'm just a happy customer/student so here is the link to check out if anyone is interested in the "Harmonic Beat" theory and teaching:
http://www.forextips.com/markettrade...home_study.htm )

here is a screen shot of my trade and the Harmonic Beat mentioned, it has nothing to do with Fibonacci numbers, it's just a crazy fact that the currencies "Beat" in 60pip moves...or divisions/multiples of 60, such as 15, 45, 75, 90 etc... look and see. Fun stuff.

http://www.accrete.com/fx_posts/misc...P07apr2006.png

Have a great weekend off of staring at the charts ;-O
I've got Marty Feldman eyes, (two monitors plus a third on the laptop)...they need rest.

Thom
  • #96
  • Apr 7, 2006 12:21pm Apr 7, 2006 12:21pm
Quoting accrete
THX, yes they are...it's lession 13 of their 16 cd "Ultimate Traders Package". good solid teaching!

(I'm not affiliated w/MTI so this should not be considered an advertisement(?), I'm just a happy customer/student so here is the link to check out if anyone is interested in the "Harmonic Beat" theory and teaching:
http://www.forextips.com/markettrade...home_study.htm )

here is a screen shot of my trade and the Harmonic Beat mentioned, it has nothing to do with Fibonacci numbers, it's just a crazy fact that the currencies "Beat" in 60pip moves...or divisions/multiples of 60, such as 15, 45, 75, 90 etc... look and see. Fun stuff.

http://www.accrete.com/fx_posts/misc...P07apr2006.png

Have a great weekend off of staring at the charts ;-O
I've got Marty Feldman eyes, (two monitors plus a third on the laptop)...they need rest.

Thom
Hi,

Can you explain what TDTL is and how you set i up on your charts?
  • #97
  • Apr 7, 2006 12:28pm Apr 7, 2006 12:28pm
A TDTL is a Tom Demark Trend Line. It is discribed in his book.
Basically you draw a line back from the right of your chart to the left, using the most recent swing high point and connecting it to the second most recent swing high point. This would be a distribution line or a down trend line.
To draw a supply line or up trend line, You connect swing low points in the same fashion. Also, you extend the line into the future and if price breaks through that line, the short term trend has changed...

SMJ
Quoting hugobossv8
Hi,

Can you explain what TDTL is and how you set i up on your charts?
  • #98
  • Apr 7, 2006 1:04pm Apr 7, 2006 1:04pm
Oh yes, you asked to see the chart. Here it is on the 5 minute time frame...

hope this helps, SMJ

Quoting luk77y
hello smjones

I noticed there was a quite strong upmove in 'an hour' after the release. I was just wondering where was your stop at because it seems that you didn't get stopped out from that move. Can you also please tell us where your box set ups were when you executed an order? Thank you
Attached Image
  • #99
  • Apr 7, 2006 1:23pm Apr 7, 2006 1:23pm
Quoting smjones
Oh yes, you asked to see the chart. Here it is on the 5 minute time frame...

hope this helps, SMJ
Hi SMJ. Nicely straight through a 146 Ab Fibo set, just like it often does on NFP day. Did you see that?
The framework is there; we just have to work on our frame of mind.
  • #100
  • Apr 7, 2006 1:28pm Apr 7, 2006 1:28pm
Ya bet ya,

I just did not want to plot the lines, because I thought it kinda proprietary to you. ... Thanks for the info... It works great. It is a good confluence.

SMJ


Quoting niceguy777
Hi SMJ. Nicely straight through a 146 Ab Fibo set, just like it often does on NFP day. Did you see that?
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