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AUD/USD

  • #34,401
  • Oct 12, 2011 2:44pm Oct 12, 2011 2:44pm
Quoting dokijoon
Hi guys,
in a few hours they will release the employment change for AUD.
It is a good opportunity to trade the news especially if the statistics is significantly different from forcast and especially if it is in the opposite direction. We also need AUDUSD pair be in a narrow range for at least 1-3 hours before releasing the news.
If all of the above criteria meet then we can expect 50-70 pips move in AUDUSD in a few minutes.

Do anyone have idea about this or any suggestion?

Thanks for your kindly suggestion.
I do not normally trade with news but i will take a look to see how market moves.. (i might will try 0.01 lot, lol).
  • #34,402
  • Edited 4:06pm Oct 12, 2011 3:22pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting Pied Piper
ya "C" seems to be over @ .9386 right?
That's the hourly chart... 0.9871 @ 38.2% Fib on wave 3.

On Daily, here are my two possible scenarios:

1. Bullish to around 1.0400/1.0500 or at least september gap.
2. Bearish to the previous lows. That would be wave 5 in progress on the fall from july highs.


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  • #34,403
  • Oct 12, 2011 4:36pm Oct 12, 2011 4:36pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0150

Well the bulls certain got hold of this by the horns and once 1.0040 broke it was blue skies.
Are there anymore shorts left in the house besides me ?
I think this caught many by surprised hence the move.
Technically it has merit fundamentally its obsured.

As for the plays we have some Aussie unemployment data coming out.
Given the last batch of data it seems like they have employed a 3 year old in the stats area just pushing any old buttons..


It seems somewhat congested between 1.02-1.03 so will need some euphoria to push it up quickly through there .

The 1.0050 breakout will most likely act as support.

I guess my tactic today will be hit heavy for 20-30 points and run still maintaining my short position trying to improve my P/L..

Good luck..
  • #34,404
  • Oct 12, 2011 5:48pm Oct 12, 2011 5:48pm
My Chart Today,
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  • #34,405
  • Oct 12, 2011 6:39pm Oct 12, 2011 6:39pm
So I'de say the market is in balance (haha) at the moment around the 50 (was 40 yesterday) ... then when the employment figures come out it will go up or down ! But trying to trade it immediately is going to be chasing candles with big slippage as usual.
  • #34,406
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:14pm Oct 12, 2011 7:14pm
I think the best way to trade news is to make yourself sit on your hands for the first 5 minutes and then trade what the world thinks after the information is digested.

Quoting webart
So I'de say the market is in balance (haha) at the moment around the 50 (was 40 yesterday) ... then when the employment figures come out it will go up or down ! But trying to trade it immediately is going to be chasing candles with big slippage as usual.
  • #34,407
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:31pm Oct 12, 2011 7:31pm
All is well ... as long as China keeps buying our dirt.
  • #34,408
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:38pm Oct 12, 2011 7:38pm
long from the median
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  • #34,409
  • Oct 12, 2011 7:59pm Oct 12, 2011 7:59pm
It's trying ... commercial will be out in force trying to grab our stops.
  • #34,410
  • Edited 8:30pm Oct 12, 2011 8:19pm | Edited 8:30pm
That 3 year old on the unemployment stats had some fun again.

Shorts taken out up to 1.0230 which surprisingly is a fibo -50%
1.1080 -.9389

Now we either go back down to .9850 or to 1.0400

I have mixed tech heads.. some say lower other say higher.. no wonder the market is on edge..

Fundamentally Europe is still as basket case.. Australia's stats are a mystery yet some economists are believing them

I just want to add that a rate cut locally can be forced by not whats happening only locally but also abroad.

Im short and staying that way.. until the cash runs out
  • #34,411
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:23pm Oct 12, 2011 8:23pm
I'm on the sidelines.... I've used up the max slots for trades based on my MM. Had a chance (before the historic rise) to close a few positions, but felt that the trend was going further down...
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,412
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:25pm Oct 12, 2011 8:25pm
FX market loves fibs, its made a bounce on the 61.8, hopefully thats what it wants .. i'll take it to a double top around 230 ... well thats the plan !
  • #34,413
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:41pm Oct 12, 2011 8:41pm
Another blood sweat and tears trade lol. I'm holding it, it's just commercial trying to steel my money.
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  • #34,414
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:47pm Oct 12, 2011 8:47pm
Well all I can say is if one were to think about shorting the aussie. Then now would be the time to consider it...per my method the appropriate price action will tell when and if this is the right decision, but we are at or approaching something significant imho. GL
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  • #34,415
  • Oct 12, 2011 8:51pm Oct 12, 2011 8:51pm
Dona,

Based on your chart (the upper limit of your channel) would be my target to short (if I could) arnd 1.0274.

However, with issues with the fundamentals (things are going out of whack IMHO), even if I go in I might have a tight stop loss just in case.

But thanks for pointing that out.. hopefully the price reverses soon. My account is getting smaller by the day.... la la la
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #34,416
  • Edited 9:15pm Oct 12, 2011 8:58pm | Edited 9:15pm
You've got that drawn up nicely ... things look very different on different time scale don't they. I like to just play the technicals on a short time scale using the fundamentals as the strength behind it. Now approaching the 94 level again, which was support, could now be resistance .....
  • #34,417
  • Oct 12, 2011 9:20pm Oct 12, 2011 9:20pm
This aussie been moving up 800 pips in 8 days (half of the move down from 1.1 to 0.94) ,so the average rate is 100 pips/day in one direction..sure it's gonna give back 100 - 200 pips before moving up again to around 1.04 /61.8% fib)..or goin' back to 0.94..we'll see next week..Good Luck !!
  • #34,418
  • Oct 12, 2011 9:43pm Oct 12, 2011 9:43pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Dona,

Based on your chart (the upper limit of your channel) would be my target to short (if I could) arnd 1.0274.

However, with issues with the fundamentals (things are going out of whack IMHO), even if I go in I might have a tight stop loss just in case.

But thanks for pointing that out.. hopefully the price reverses soon. My account is getting smaller by the day.... la la la
So yeah this is more a higher probability ZONE of reversal compared to other places. No I am not short yet. I'd like to see some candlesticks that point to a reversal at least on the 4hr b4 I consider a short
  • #34,419
  • Oct 12, 2011 10:15pm Oct 12, 2011 10:15pm
im short guys but if not break about more than 200 pips will wait for long again here my chart....
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be patient, self-belief and discipline... stay focus...
  • #34,420
  • Oct 13, 2011 12:20am Oct 13, 2011 12:20am
Came within a whisker of my double top ... back on that long term median. Now moving into Euro mode .. so it's going to get pulled around.
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