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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #10,621
  • Oct 7, 2011 2:37pm Oct 7, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting mtrader123
Unfortunately, I dont have the foggiest as of what type is this trade. Anyway, this type of setup can occur whenever. It could perfectly be a usual swing type of trade. On the other hand, some of the trendlines could be invalid due to news or Tokio session which Hector does not trade - so I see your point.
Unfortunately, the red trendlines also have 3 touches. Would you also consider the red trendlines as valid trendlines?
if news and etc were not interfering, yes, they will be valid. of course, you need a bpc above those trendlines.



Quoting mtrader123
Thank you for your efforts. I read through it and it helped a lot. I at least know that I am not alone and there are plenty of people struggling with the art of drawing trendlines.

Anyway, any 3SMA trades this week?
yes. but is a trend collapse 3sma trade. aud/jpy. It has the same format as this:

http://youtu.be/XIh5JrGlufc

here is where is detailed description about trend collapse trade:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3392809
  • #10,622
  • Oct 9, 2011 11:25pm Oct 9, 2011 11:25pm
Quoting mtrader123
That is all right. I am thankfull for posting your setups anyway.

What I am struggling with is drawing the trendlines. One can practically draw as many trendlines as there are candles in the chart. How to draw them correctly?

Attached is a screen from Hector's live trade. Black trendlines are his. I drew the red ones. My question is: Why did he wait till the ranged formed? By the time I had drawn the first red trendline I could not have possibly known that the price action would end up in a range. What is your take, dddd? Each red trendline can...
You can avoid false trendlines, avoiding signals above MA, if the price is at a marginal distance with the MA so its ok, but if it is far from the MA consider it a false signal (Top/Bottom) ... so if you are buying just consider the ones above the ma and viceversa. I only consider 1 signal below the MA and that is when price is going to trend...
  • #10,623
  • Oct 10, 2011 1:02pm Oct 10, 2011 1:02pm
Quoting dddd
if news and etc were not interfering, yes, they will be valid. of course, you need a bpc above those trendlines.





yes. but is a trend collapse 3sma trade. aud/jpy. It has the same format as this:

http://youtu.be/XIh5JrGlufc

here is where is detailed description about trend collapse trade:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3392809
had one in gbp/jpy. m30/m5. trend collapse. unfortunately, the bpc didnt happen.
  • #10,624
  • Oct 11, 2011 9:08am Oct 11, 2011 9:08am
Quoting gino32
You can avoid false trendlines, avoiding signals above MA, if the price is at a marginal distance with the MA so its ok, but if it is far from the MA consider it a false signal (Top/Bottom) ... so if you are buying just consider the ones above the ma and viceversa. I only consider 1 signal below the MA and that is when price is going to trend...
Thank you gino for your insights. However, I am afraid I do not quite understand what you mean. Could you please post a chart with what you mean? Thank you in advance.

mtrader
  • #10,625
  • Oct 11, 2011 9:17am Oct 11, 2011 9:17am
Quoting dddd
had one in gbp/jpy. m30/m5. trend collapse. unfortunately, the bpc didnt happen.
You mean the attached setup? I spotted a BPC on the 5m TF, however I have been off for the last 2 days.

But maybe I dont understand the trend collapse strategy correctly as it's quite new to me.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy30m.jpg Size: 344 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy5m.jpg Size: 340 KB
  • #10,626
  • Oct 11, 2011 12:19pm Oct 11, 2011 12:19pm
Quoting mtrader123
You mean the attached setup? I spotted a BPC on the 5m TF, however I have been off for the last 2 days.

But maybe I dont understand the trend collapse strategy correctly as it's quite new to me.

draw a daily line.

look for a break of the daily line

go to h1 or m30 and look for trending smas in the direction of the break.

initiate trade

charts attached below: daily, m30, m5.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 10 13.57.jpg Size: 92 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Oct. 10 13.57.jpg Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Oct. 10 13.58.jpg Size: 107 KB
  • #10,627
  • Oct 11, 2011 12:24pm Oct 11, 2011 12:24pm
most respectfully to all.

i dont feel inclined posting on this thread unless others seasoned trend traders join in.

i mean that in the most respectful manner. I just feel too lazy to do any further explanations. It is not the fault of anybody that is hungry to learn the hector method. it is mine. I mean that with the utmost respect.

i prefer to just entertain myself at random threads somewhere else. thank you all.
  • #10,628
  • Oct 12, 2011 3:45am Oct 12, 2011 3:45am
Quoting dddd
most respectfully to all.

i dont feel inclined posting on this thread unless others seasoned trend traders join in.

i mean that in the most respectful manner. I just feel too lazy to do any further explanations. It is not the fault of anybody that is hungry to learn the hector method. it is mine. I mean that with the utmost respect.

i prefer to just entertain myself at random threads somewhere else. thank you all.

Hi dddd,

I understand and respect your decision. Naturally, you are not obliged to help anybody. I am very thankful for your previous insights and help. I wish NM or Custos would come back and help you support us.

If you are close enough to Hector, maybe you could propose to him that he starts again his blog with daily setups. That would be an amazing source of information and a great support for us. Pity that he discontinued it.

Thanks again.
mtrader
  • #10,629
  • Oct 12, 2011 4:43am Oct 12, 2011 4:43am
Today I spotted one, IMHO, valid trade on GBPAUD 1h/15m chart. See attached pictures. There was a rather nice BPC pattern and a breakout of the retracement trendline on the 15m chart. I couldn't take it as I am full time employed and was not at the PC.

4h TF was also trending down, although daily was confusing. Nevertheless, there is a downtrend on the weekly TF. Most probably I would have taken this position.

Has anybody profited from this setup?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud1h.jpg Size: 264 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud15m.jpg Size: 286 KB
  • #10,630
  • Oct 13, 2011 3:12am Oct 13, 2011 3:12am
Today I spotted another IMHO valid setup on AUDUSD 30m/5m. I saw a breakout of a retracement trendline (or a triangle if you wish) on the 30m TF. 1h and 4h TFs were also uptrending.

On the other hand, the price was not harmonically swinging off the 30/50 SMAs, and on daily TF there was a huge resistance level.

So after all, maybe it wasn't that valid of a setup. Anyway, I am attaching the pics. I deleted the stop buy order once the PA breached the retracement trendline from above (the last long red candle on the 5m attached chart).

Today, I am also watching GBPAUD 30m and GBPNZD 1h.

mtrader.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd30m.jpg Size: 290 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd5m.jpg Size: 333 KB
  • #10,631
  • Oct 21, 2011 5:17am Oct 21, 2011 5:17am
I have been contacting Hector for about 4 days. However, so far no asnwer.
Maybe some of you will be able to comment a we will learn together from the setups.

On 17th, October, I saw following setups:

USDCAD 30m TF - setup chart. It was second swing from the dynamic area of S/R. On the trigger chart, there was a 1-2-3 formation that broke through a retracement trendline.

GBPAUD 1h TF - setup chart. Another swing towards the dynamic area of S/R. On the triggger chart (15m), there was a BPC pattern.

USDSGD 30m TF - setup chart. Price breached the retracement line and there was a BPC pattern on the 5m chart.

With conservative intrade management, I assume none of them would end up in a loss. There were some S/R levels ahead of the trades on higher TFs but none greatly significant. I assume I would reduce the lot size and give it a shot.
Attached are the screenshots..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad30m.jpg Size: 330 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad5m.jpg Size: 293 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud1h.jpg Size: 328 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud15m.jpg Size: 304 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsgd30m.jpg Size: 299 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdsgd5m.jpg Size: 321 KB
  • #10,632
  • Oct 27, 2011 9:06am Oct 27, 2011 9:06am
Hi everybody,

after IMHO having managed the art of drawing trendlines, I am now struggling with identifying past S/R levels.

Attached are recent potential trades: AUDUSD (4h setup chart) and AUDNZD (4h setup chart).

On AUDUSD daily chart (attached), would you consider the 1,04274 a level of strong S/R? Would you ditch the two BPCs on the hourly chart (attached)?

AUDNZD - attached is weekly chart with S/R level and 1h trigger chart. What about this trade? Would you abandon it because of the S/R level from the weekly chart? Is the weekly S/R really that significant?

Thanks for your insights.

mtrader
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily.jpg Size: 400 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd1h.jpg Size: 378 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzdweekly.jpg Size: 340 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd4h.jpg Size: 351 KB
  • #10,633
  • Nov 8, 2011 12:33pm Nov 8, 2011 12:33pm
Quoting mtrader123
Hi everybody,

after IMHO having managed the art of drawing trendlines, I am now struggling with identifying past S/R levels.

Attached are recent potential trades: AUDUSD (4h setup chart) and AUDNZD (4h setup chart).

On AUDUSD daily chart (attached), would you consider the 1,04274 a level of strong S/R? Would you ditch the two BPCs on the hourly chart (attached)?

AUDNZD - attached is weekly chart with S/R level and 1h trigger chart. What about this trade? Would you abandon it because of the S/R level from the weekly chart? Is the weekly S/R really...
I am gonna answer your questions in one post:

1. yep gbp/aud h1 looked like a good trade
2. aud/usd was more of a range and going long at the breach of the high would have been a better idea.
3. your other examples are also pretty good
4. well S/R levels are sort of an art. there are basically two schools of thought. You either take levels that have worked long-term or you take levels that have worked recently. Best is if they worked recently and far back in the past as well. I personally would have drawn the S/R a bit lower on both charts, since recently the level hasn't been used.
5. I read you are fully employed. Maybe consider going long-term. It's generally more reliable. I personally am only trading long-term.

cheers
  • #10,634
  • Nov 11, 2011 9:22am Nov 11, 2011 9:22am
Quoting Custos
I am gonna answer your questions in one post:

1. yep gbp/aud h1 looked like a good trade
2. aud/usd was more of a range and going long at the breach of the high would have been a better idea.
3. your other examples are also pretty good
4. well S/R levels are sort of an art. there are basically two schools of thought. You either take levels that have worked long-term or you take levels that have worked recently. Best is if they worked recently and far back in the past as well. I personally would have drawn the S/R a bit lower on both charts, since...

Thank you Custos for answering my questions. I will now respond just to your 5th point as I am in a hurry at the moment but will come back to the rest of them.

5. I would like to trade full time for a while but 3sma is certainly more reliable on 4h/daily TFs. Fortunately, I came across another Hector's system - the Intraday market flow system. It's based on 1h TF and there is a trade almost every day, sometimes there are more than 2 trades a day. It is covered in his newest course. Have you had any experiences with it? I have been demotesting it for only one week now. So far so good, but it's only been one week.

I would be really happy if I could use both of the strategies - the new system for daytrading and the 3sma system for long-term trading till I have enough money to start doing something else.. Those are just my wishes and dreams.
  • #10,635
  • Nov 11, 2011 11:12am Nov 11, 2011 11:12am
Quoting mtrader123
Thank you Custos for answering my questions. I will now respond just to your 5th point as I am in a hurry at the moment but will come back to the rest of them.

5. I would like to trade full time for a while but 3sma is certainly more reliable on 4h/daily TFs.
definitely
Quoting mtrader123
Fortunately, I came across another Hector's system - the Intraday market flow system. It's based on 1h TF and there is a trade almost every day, sometimes there are more than 2 trades a day. It is covered in his newest course. Have you had any experiences with it?
no, I haven't had any experience with that.
Quoting mtrader123
I have been demotesting it for only one week now. So far so good, but it's only been one week.
yep, one week is NOTHING. Any system can perform well for a week.
Quoting mtrader123
I would be really happy if I could use both of the strategies - the new system for daytrading and the 3sma system for long-term trading till I have enough money to start doing something else.. Those are just my wishes and dreams.
well, unless you are an extremely gifted trader, I would say that this will stay in the wishes and dreams category. Of course there are thousands of others here that will tell you the opposite, but sooner or later you will realize that trading the markets intraday is a futile exercise, that will just drain your account. You have to answer yourself one question: Do I want to make money from trading or do I want to have excitement? Mostly these two are mutually exclusive.
But since you are a newb I advice you to try out every intraday system you get your hands on for the next year and watch one after the other fail. Hopefully after that year you will be so disgusted and depressed by intraday trading, that you will have an innate urge to trade the markets in a more logical way and hold trades more medium term (weeks to months).
  • #10,636
  • Edited 8:13pm Nov 13, 2011 7:42pm | Edited 8:13pm
Quoting Custos
definitely

no, I haven't had any experience with that.

yep, one week is NOTHING. Any system can perform well for a week.

well, unless you are an extremely gifted trader, I would say that this will stay in the wishes and dreams category. Of course there are thousands of others here that will tell you the opposite, but sooner or later you will realize that trading the markets intraday is a futile exercise, that will just drain your account. You have to answer yourself one question: Do I want to make money from trading or do I want to have excitement?...
One of the big reasons intraday trading is difficult is because there is a bigger bigger picture out there. Intraday will work for any one if you know what the longer time frames are doing. The biggest problem with intraday traders is they set targets on to large a time frame, always trade your time frame, dont take a trade on the hourly chart when your trying to reach for a target on the daily chart.

As always I use the smaller time frames as a trigger and entry point locator and not for setting targets, those are always set on a larger time frame. At least thats how I do it using this system, there a lot of good systems and methods that work best thing to do is try different ones and see which one fits your trading style.

--NM
  • #10,637
  • Nov 14, 2011 12:18am Nov 14, 2011 12:18am
Quoting NightMoves
One of the big reasons intraday trading is difficult is because there is a bigger bigger picture out there. Intraday will work for any one if you know what the longer time frames are doing. The biggest problem with intraday traders is they set targets on to large a time frame, always trade your time frame, dont take a trade on the hourly chart when your trying to reach for a target on the daily chart.

As always I use the smaller time frames as a trigger and entry point locator and not for setting targets, those are always set on a larger time...
well, I personally have a different opinion regarding this. I actually use intraday charts to position myself in the larger fundamental picture. Of course this is a low win/loss strategy, but in terms of profitablity it strikes out everything I ever did intraday.
  • #10,638
  • Nov 14, 2011 1:09am Nov 14, 2011 1:09am
nice to see you nightmoves back, and thanks all the good traders here helping others.
i wonder anybody tried the new intraday market flow strategy and how is it doing? average win/loss ration and reward/risk. how many trades per week?
Thanks!
  • #10,639
  • Nov 14, 2011 10:49am Nov 14, 2011 10:49am
Quoting Sesshaumaru
nice to see you nightmoves back, and thanks all the good traders here helping others.
i wonder anybody tried the new intraday market flow strategy and how is it doing? average win/loss ration and reward/risk. how many trades per week?
Thanks!
Seriously guys, stop jumping from system to system. It won't help. Just employ a system which you KNOW has an edge (by testing it extensively) and then stick by it.
  • #10,640
  • Nov 14, 2011 11:49am Nov 14, 2011 11:49am
Thanks! actually i sticked to 3sma on 4hr time frame, and it works, the r:r ratio and win/loss ratio are good though not fantastic, but the downside is it gives too little signal.last month i practicly was sitting on my hands.and i found 3sma not working very well on 1hr and below. so i'm curious about the new intraday market flow system which gives more signals. anybody has any experience?
Thanks!
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