Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

11.30am (London)
“If I were a rich man, yabadebebebedaaaa….”
Haha, yeah, this is what the old milkman Tevye used to sing (“Fiddler on the roof”)

What I am going to sing myself today is:

If I were a BIG BANK or BIG HEDGE FUND with millions of dollars account…

1. I would set up my BIG SELL ORDER between 1.34800-1.35000
2. see as price breaks through 1.3400, triggering all bearish stop-loss orders one by one
3. wait patiently for market to come to me
4. watch after all as price falls, laughing about all shocked bleeding bears

OK. Sorry to be a bit sarcastic, but more and more I read about going short @1.34000, more likely I am to go against it and push my Sell Order higher to 1.34800.

Why? Guys, stop-loss hunting technique is nothing new.
The big boys, banks, hedge funds, brokers can kill you all here with their one big purchase. All our 1lot, 5lots orders, let alone mini-lots are meaningless.
What big banks do is only 4, 5 transactions per month, but they are enough significant to affect price in the market.
They just set up their sell-order BEHIND your stop-loss and you are cooked for dinner.
One their big order and price will plough through your stop-loss like a combine through cornfield.

OK. Loads of news ahead today, so anything can happen, though if price bounce up I wouldn’t be looking for any shortage before price reach 1.34800-1.35000 zone. The alternative scenario is ECB or US Unemployment completely surprise the market and price plunges immediately to its previous lows, though it’s less probability scenario..
Mightbe I am wrong, but expect volatile markets anyway.

Here’s my bounce “before-drop-scenario”

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150 green pip now sl to be

nice work.

Hey guys and gals!,

Just got back from an educational retreat . I'll post some charts in a bit.

-Erik

Hello and GM

NZDUSD my view

(6pm London)

HI Traders...
Well, watching couple of last trading hours it’s obvious that the spike above 1.3500 was not caused by flocks of new buyers, but it was made because of many new BIG SELLERS.
Yes, yes… big boys (BANKS, HEDGE FUNDS) came into play. They NEVER buy or sell spot positions, they mostly set up their massive million dollar orders above or below the market price and that’s what makes the market so volatile…

OK. Referring to my previous charts:
TARGET1 finally reached, though it took nearly a week to do so!
I am expecting that now some (crazy) bulls will try to break out the channel one more time. However they will be against strong trend, so they have less probability to succeed.
After they give up, we (the BEARS) will have a nice open space to attack 1.31500 and even further 1.3000 next week.
And this is my plan for next week. Finding good SHORT entry point.


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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ading_dark.gif

we need 4h bar to closed above 1.3745 to start up trend
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XIKoD8iPkA...Q/s1600/12.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CTo3TM29ol...I/s1600/13.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-S6ZbECxJNu...U/s1600/14.png if cross up will targeting 32.8 & if cross down will target another side of down Chanel

Ill be sending out the Bookie Report on Monday afternoon due to the lack of volumes/liquidity today and tomorrow.

UCHF Divergence

That last LT UCAD Divergence played out really well

Good Morning Traders

Bulls tried to break downtrend resistance line four times in last few weeks.
Last attempt on Friday, but the move wasn’t enough strong to break through.
This morning brought “BULLS high octane rocket fuel” with extremely good news from Italy, which was considered a sinking ship for many traders.

The situation on EURUSD changed dramatically.
Now, we have to consider new levels which we didn’t even think about a week ago.
Price significantly closed above previous resistance line proving bulls strength and it all looks PA is heading north.
My previous bearish scenario has been denied and I am staying NEUTRAL for hours ahead looking closely on my charts.
There are few possible scenarios now but it’s too early to judge which one is most predictable.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Nice analysis Halkins, I have 1.3524 chalked up as a good point to enter long, after digesting the Euro news my view is that an entry at this level will give a good probability of at least a short term continuation north.

VP

Hi Vincentprice.
Yeap, 1.35250 looks promising. Though I am afraid price often likes to touch and retest previous support/resistance lines, so in this case it can get through 1.35250 some 30-40 pips lower and then bounce back from previous resistance line.
As far as now I think it's better to wait, unless someone is trading on 30min charts or lower.

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i select this 4h bar since price move strongly down if draw febo and mark 61.8 febo let see PA at this level

That as on for 241 pips

A good look at EU P&F with Fib friction. Will be watching this area

Now a closer view

CHFJPY D TL + supply zone



http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-bLdQp-YAEp...I/s1600/18.png